EVENTS AND MATCHUPS TO WATCH IN BEIJING (AND PREDICTIONS!)...

Edward Ovadia

Email: edwardovadia [at] gmail.com

Asafa Powell vs. Tyson Gay vs. Usain Bolt (100m)

The World Champion, and fastest ever over 100m (wind assisted), taking on the two fastest wind-legal 100m runners ever. This will be one for the ages. But both Tyson Gay and Asafa Powell have had injury worries recently, while Bolt will be splitting his concentration between the 100m and 200m. And then there's Derrick Atkins, silver medallist from last year's World Champs; and Walter Dix, NCAA Champ and second at the US Olympic Trials. Who will take it? I wouldn't want to be picking this one. Oh wait, I have to...

Winner: Gay, if his injury doesn't cause him any preparation problems. If not, Bolt.

Jeremy Wariner vs. LaShawn Merritt (400m)

Jeremy Wariner has been the king of 400m running since Michael Johnson stepped off the track. That is, until this year. He is being threatened by World Champs silver medallist LaShawn Merritt, who beat him in Berlin, and at the US Track Championships and selection trials. However Wariner's PB is still half a second clear of Merritt, and he has run the fastest time this year. But Merritt wants it bad.

Winner: Wariner; his track record and PB are too much to go past. But Merritt will make it tough.

Craig Mottram vs. The Field (5000m)

This is one for the Aussies. Could it finally be Mottram's turn? With Kenenisa Bekele having been named in the field, it looks like a daunting task. But Mottram has the mantle of being one of a few runners to have ever beaten Bekele; while Bekele himself will be coming off a very tough 10000m (see below). And, Bekele has not been the best performer in the heat. Think back to his DNF in the 2007 World Cross Country in Mombassa, and his shaky victory in Osaka in last year's World Champs, where he was nearly dropped in the final laps. This is not to say that he will be easy to beat - even on an off day, Bekele could topple almost anyone. Then there's the 2007 World Champ Bernard Lagat who, as a 1500m runner, has a devastating kick. Lagat has been known to run a 51 second last lap in a sub 13 minute 5000m - an incredible demonstration of speed and pace. And there's no doubt that with two world titles, Lagat will be finally hoping to claim an Olympic gold. But Mottram is no slouch. With Bekele in the race, the pace will be hot, and this will suit Mottram, who likes a fast pace.

Winner: Mottram (we hope!)

Haile Gebrselassie vs. Kekenisa Bekele vs. The Rest (10000m)

The two greatest ever distance runners of all time, battling it out. What could be better? Well, while Geb is a mean marathon runner, his track speed may be lacking. And the marathon wasn't an option for him due to his asthma and worries about the pollution. However as I mentioned above, Bekele may not be the greatest heat runner. There's no doubt Geb will be the sentimental favourite, and this may be his edge over Bekele. Discount Athens 2004 as any indication - the heat will be much worse, and Geb was carrying an injury in that race. But Bekele is the world record holder, and when he is on form, is on a whole other level to everyone else. Don't write off the rest of the field too - including Sileshi Sihine, the perennial silver medallist who beat Geb at Hengelo this year; and of course an entire field chasing them down.

Winner: Although I would love to say Geb, it will be Bekele.

Men's Marathon (too many people to name)

The marathon is always the toughest event to pick, and one of the most interesting to watch; and Beijing will be no exception. The heat, humidity, and pollution will take its toll on what is an amazingly deep field. Here's the form guide:

- Martin Lel, 2:05 runner, London Marathon winner, and the form marathon runner of the year.
- Sammy Wanjiru, another 2:05 runner, world record holder in the half marathon, second from London, and a Japanese resident, which may give him the upper hand in the heat.
- Robert Cheruiyot, World Marathon Majors winner, and a solid racer.
- Ryan Hall, the future of American marathon running, and with a 2:06 to his name.
- Stefano Baldini, 2004 Olympic Marathon winner, and proven competitor in the heat, Baldini is an expert racer.
- Atsushi Sato, Japanese champion, and 2:07 runner.
- Abderrahim Goumri, third in London, and yet another 2:05 runner.
- And of course the honourable Lee Troop, 2:09 runner, and definite tough nut. Troopy is one hard runner, and will never give up. If you show any weakness, look for Troopy to go right past you. Watch for him in the top ten, closing in on the podium.
- And then a slew of 2:06, 2:07 and 2:08 runners to bulk up the field; any of which could come through to win.

Winner: Are you kidding? Well, ok... Wanjiru.

Dayron Robles vs. Liu Xiang (110m Hurdles)

No one knows pressure like Liu Xiang. He has the hopes of over one billion people riding on his twelve second race. What's more, they're all convinced he will win. No matter that he lost the world record to Robles this year; or that he has been struggling with an injury in the last few months, while Robles has been on fire. But if there's one person who you know will do everything in their power to be ready for Beijing, it will be Xiang. Can he get fit, and thrive on the pressure? That will be the deciding factor.

Winner: Robles. Sorry, Liu!

Pamela Jelimo vs. Janeth Jepkosgei vs. The Rest (800m)

Jelimo has been the revelation of the season. She seems to pump out 1:55 and 1:54 clockings at will. But as her first season of 800m running, she is still to learn the intricacies of the race, and how to best run it. She has also had a very long season, and been in top shape for a long time. Although she has progressed over the season, she always looks to be struggling in the final 200m where, in an Olympic final, you need to be kicking for home. Jelimo seems to have only one tactic; at least that we've seen. Go out hard, gap the field, and hold on to win. Will she be able to gap the more experienced Jepkosgei - last year's World Champion and a 1:56 runner - without a pacemaker? We shall see. If Jepkosgei can get into 1:55 or 1:56 shape, like last year's World Champs, she may be able to hang onto Jelimo, and out kick her in the end.

Winner: Jelimo. She's too dominant not to pick her.

Meseret Defar vs. Tirunesh Dibaba vs. Russia (5000m)

These two have been rivals for years. Dibaba recently took Defar's world record, running a superb 14:11; only to have Defar try to claim it back, and run 14:12. However Defar's 14:12 was, to many people, worth more than Dibaba's world record, and Defar ran the final 3000m on her own - while Dibaba had her sister helping her all the way. Then there is the Russians. While doubt has been cast on the Russian team by recent drug use allegations, it still stands that the top three Russian women ran at or under 14:38, with Lilia Shobukhova winning in 14:23. As a team, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

Winner: Defar. Her final lap in her 14:12 was phenomenal - she is the complete package.

...AND THE OLYMPIC CLASHES WE'LL BE DENIED!...

David Rudisha vs. Abubaker Kaki (800m)

The men's 800m has seen a few years of wilderness, after the retirement of Wilson Kipketer, the great Kenyan born Dane. But in the last two years there has emerged two runners looking to change all that. They are David Rudisha (Kenya), the 2006 World Junior Champion, and Abubaker Kaki (Sudan), the 2008 World Junior Champion. Last year, Rudisha was ranked number one in the world by Track and Field News, despite not competing at the World Championships. For his part, Kaki won the World Indoor Championships in commanding fashion, leading from the start to finish. And he has the world leading time this year, an amazing 1:42 over the distance. Rudisha was second in that race in 1:43. And so a head to head clash in Beijing was a justifiably exciting prospect. But it was not to be. Suffering from an injury and virus during the Kenyan trials, Rudisha was forced to sit out the race. And for some reason, selectors decided to deny him the third wild card spot in the team, going instead with Alfred Kirwa Yego. Sure, Kirwa Yego is the reigning World Champion, and has run a 1:44 this year. But his World Champs win was unexpected, and he is not in the same class as Rudisha. And so, the clash will have to be postponed. Luckily, given that Kaki is 19 and Rudisha is 20, we'll hopefully be seeing plenty of Rudisha/Kaki battles in the future. Personally, I would love to see a world record attempt with both in the race - if not this year then next.

Tyson Gay vs. Usain Bolt (200m)

As two of the fastest sprinters in the world, and with the 200m being Bolt's (and possibly Gay's) preferred distance, a clash between the two was looking exciting. But a hamstring injury at the US Trials forced Gay to pull out, and the USA's all or nothing selection policy meant Gay was out of the team. But fear not, because Walter Dix, NCAA Champion and US Olympic Trials winner (over 2004 Olympic gold medallist Shawn Crawford) will step in and take it to Bolt all the way to the line.

A Fit Paula Radcliffe vs. The World (Marathon)

Injury after injury has set Paula Radcliffe back, and means that she will probably be coming into the marathon with only just enough fitness - if she runs at all. As the world record holder and the most dominant marathoner ever, she deserves the win after having to pull out in Athens 2004. And having her fit and at her best would have been a tantalising prospect. But at least she looks to be running.

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