2009 - The Year of the Marathon; or Usain Bolt's Afterparty?

Edward Ovadia

Email: edwardovadia [at] gmail.com

2008 was an incredible year for athletics, not only because of the Olympics, but also because of a number of athletes and performances who captivated sportsfans around the world, and pushed boundries in all respects. So what will be the events, races, and matchups to look forward to in 2009?

I want to pick two. Usain Bolt; and the marathon.

Firstly, how fast can Usain Bolt go this year? He certainly has the confidence after this year, and the expectations, but can he replicate his amazing year? I think it might be tough. Usually after such a breakthrough year, some athletes will find it hard to back up the next year in the same manner. It might be that 2010 will be more his time. Then again, he's young and on an improvement curve, so you never know. Either way, I think the 100m world record will go, if not to him then to Powell or Gay; but the 200m I think will be safe, depending on how Bolt goes in the Berlin World Champs, if the conditions are good, and if Tyson Gay is there to push him.

The marathon is the one event I am most looking forward to this year. How many times will the world record be broken? Very soon we will see a world record attempt by Haile Gebrselassie in Dubai. Then the London Marathon will host an incredible race and field, which will also be a world record attempt by Martin Lel and Sammy Wanjiru. And Wanjiru has already said that if he misses the world record in London, he will try for it in the Berlin Marathon in September - which will be missing Haile, who has committed to running in the Berlin World Champs! So we may well have three world record attempts, and a high quality championship marathon which will finally prove how well Haile handles championship conditions over the marathon. And don't forget Paula Radcliffe, who is reportedly making an attempt on her own world record in London too.

So how fast can they go? The world record is currently 2:03:59. Haile actually ran 2:03:58, chip time. He has said he can dip under 2:03, making it at least 2:02:59. Wanjiru and Lel should at least be able to crack 2:04, and may be able to push 2:03 too. But it's hard to see the current group of marathoners going much under 2:03 any time soon. But it may be interesting to see how the 'next crop', with the likes of Bekele, Sihine, Tadese (who is making his debut this year), Patrick Makau, and Evans Cheruiyot (Chicago Marathon winner this year) will go. I would tip the fastest of them (Bekele, Sihine, Tadese) and Bekele in particular, if he can translate well to the road, to be able to go under 2:03, and push 2:02 at the absolute best. But I find it impossible to believe that anyone running any distance of any age right now could run much under 2:01:40. I think so see that broken, and then push on to the mythical 2 hour marathon, will take someone who is not yet born, or at least hasn't started in senior athletics yet, and hence someone no one knows about yet. I don't want to put a time limit on it, but I would conservatively say at least 20-30 years. But 50 years for 2 hours wouldn't surprise me one bit. Having said that, however, I do think it will happen, without a doubt. Whether it's improvements in training, nutrition, equiptment, recovery, racing, courses, or just better athletes that does it, I don't know; but it will happen.

For the moment, however, we can look forward to the current crop over the next few years, and then wait and see how runners like Bekele fare on the roads. Don't forget it took Haile a couple of years to make the track-to-road transition, and a few more before he was successfully running marathons and threatening the world record - so it may be a little while before we see whether Bekele can live up to the excitement surrounding his eventual marathon debut.

2009 could also see an attack on the half marathon world record by Haile and Makau certainly, and by Wanjiru possibly; on the 400m by Merritt or Wariner; a steeple world record; and an attack on any number of world record distances by Pamela Jelimo, depending on how she fronts up for this season and what her targets are. I know I'm excited - I hope you are too!

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