Can Anyone Beat Bekele?

Edward Ovadia

Email: edwardovadia [at] gmail.com

Can anyone beat Ethiopia's Kenenisa Bekele? That's the question a lot of people are asking themselves, given his domination in major races over 10000m, and to a lesser extent 5000m.

Let's just consider this for a minute. He's the world record holder over both distances. He has won gold over 10000m in two Olympics. And he's capable of closing with a final lap of close to 50 seconds.

(Remember that Tirunesh Dibaba, also of Ethiopia, is almost in the same situation. In Beijing, she won an incredibly fast 10000m against quality competition in the second fastest time ever run; and then backed up to win an incredibly slow 5000m, out kicking compatriot Meseret Defar.)

But back to Bekele. And we ask: how can he be beaten? Let's brainstorm.

A fast, sustained pace throughout the race won't do it, as Zersenay Tadesse of Eritrea has learnt several times. And why would it - you're hardly going to be able to burn off the world record holder, especially when you're setting the pace and he's just sitting in behind.

Sitting behind and out kicking Bekele in the last lap is no good either. He's capable of going extremely fast in the final lap. Apparently he has recorded times of 24 seconds over 200m and 11 seconds over 100m in the final lap of a 5000m; which makes out kicking him almost an impossibility.

It may be possible to drop Bekele with a long sustained kick to the finish, from several laps out. Or more effectively, a severe surge three laps out, of at least sub 60 seconds, in an attempt to make a break from Bekele, and force him to work on his own to catch up. This is what happened in the 2007 World Championships when Bekele was nearly dropped three laps from the finish (however that had as much to do with the heat as it did the tactics) - but the other athletes didn't create enough of a gap, and he caught back up. And more to the point, there are not many athletes who could recover from a 57 or 56 second third-last lap enough to sustain two more laps at or under 60 seconds each - which is what it would take to hold off Bekele.

That leaves us with the age-old tactic of forcing him to lead the race, and tire himself out. But it's tough to see when this might eventuate. Usually the athletes who feel an urge to lead a championship race are those without a fast finishing kick - clearly not Bekele's case.

Of course Bekele is occasionally beaten. Sometimes it's when he's off form, or given other circumstances (the extreme heat of Mombassa, say); but on his game, it's almost an impossible ask. Indeed there are only a few athletes who have beaten Bekele before. One is America's Bernard Lagat, who has run a 51 second final lap to record a sub 13 minute 5000m. At that pace, 51 seconds is incredible. But is it enough to match Bekele, who has finished the Olympic 10000m in 53 seconds, easing through the line? It may be that Bekele is only under threat from 1500m specialists who run up in the 5000m, and are able to be competitive in the usually slower-paced championship races. El Guerrouj is another example, who beat Bekele to the 5000m crown in Athens 2004. But while El Guerrouj has since retired, Bekele has gotten a lot stronger and faster.

I actually don't have an answer to this question. And clearly a lot of international athletes don't have answers either. What do people out there think? (The Olympic 5000m may answer some questions, but after having run that 10000m, a loss may not indicate much...)