NCAA Outdoor Over-Unders

Track and field is about competition, and competition is about one thing: gambling.  Er, I mean winning.  Okay, winning at gambling.

In Pat Butcher's most recent blog , he laments the rise of time trial races and the "tyranny of the stopwatch" that has gripped track and field.  He writes about the old-fashioned approach to racing where, if your competitor dropped out you won by default and could just stop running.  These races were run as gambling events, where spectators put money on an athlete and the outcome was all about winning and losing, not how fast you ran.

NCAA track isn't about that anymore, except for a few meets.  The great thing about championship meets is that they are one of the few remaining times in which place supercedes marks.  Athletes may or may not run fast, but they run to win and score points.  And for those of us on the sidelines, they provide endless opportunity to analyze and 'slice and dice' the meet.  And while we don't have organized gambling around collegiate track and field--something I'm perfectly fine with, by the way--I think it's fun to look at meets through the eyes of a bookmaker lining up interesting prop bets.   

As we prepare to watch an amazing NCAA Championships meet, here are nine interesting lines I'd love to see people wager on.  You can tell me in the comments which side you'd take, or even propose your own.  I'll provide my take on as many as possible.

9.  Percent of Scorers from non-BCS Schools +/- 18%

In response to my article that about NCAA Regionals , I received a very interesting letter from a Director of a D1 sports program.  The letter was never published.  In it, he cites some interesting statistics about the participation rate of athletes at BCS schools versus those at non-BCS schools.  Namely, non-BCS school participation went up from 17.6% in 2002 to 26.4% in 2008, and from 20.4% to 26.7% for men.  This is important because BCS conferences distribute upwards of $100 million to their member institutions annually, while non-BCS institutions may receive less than $1 million.

But what about the scorers?  I did a quick look at the results and made a guess that between 15% and 20% of scorers came from the non-BCS schools.  I didn't crunch any numbers, so this is probably off a bit, but still it makes for an interesting bet.  After the conclusion of this NCAA Championships, I'll try to figure out just what the answer was.

My pick: Over.  The points are dominated by the big schools, but I think small schools are set for a good meet. 

8. Number of Aussie Points Scored +/- 19.5

A special category for the Runner's Tribe fans out there.  How many points will the Australians at the NCAA meet score?  I have to admit, I relied pretty heavily on Chris's great NCAA Preview of Australian Athletes to make sure I didn't miss any of the non-favorite qualifiers. 

David McNeill and Shawn Forrest look to be point scorers in the 5,000 and 10,000 meters, respectively.  McNeill boasts one of the most impressive resumes in the field, but there are a few athletes in the mix who can match him stride for stride.  Forrest finds himself in the unfortunate position of chasing arguably the two greatest 10,000 meter runners in collegiate history.  Simon Wardhaugh is ranked 6th in the hammer, so he will be in the hunt for some points as well.  On the women's side, Zoe Buckman finished 4th in the 800m last year, but hasn't shown quite the same form this year.  And Megan Wheatley is ranked 4th going into the heptathlon. 

My pick: Under.  But just barely.  I'm high on Forrest and Wheatley, but skeptical of McNeill, Buckman and Wardhaugh.  I think 17-18 points total is more likely.

7.  Total Sprint Points by West Region Teams (M & W) +/- 49.5

There are seven sprint events: 100m, 200m, 400m, 100mH, 400mH, 4x100m, and 4x400m.  Each event scores a total of 39 possible points.  That makes 273 points per gender, and 546 sprint points combined.  Looking at the qualifying times, it appears that the West is going to score about 9% of those points.

And, here's the crazy thing.  If you took out Nicole Leach of UCLA and Dalilah Muhamad of USC, ranked #1 and #2 in the 400m hurdles, respectively, it would be even more drastic.  Well, this should tell you just how high I am on the West region sprinters...

My pick: Under.

6.  Number of Distance Points Scored by Freshmen +/- 43.5

As a general rule, very few freshman score at the NCAA meet.  In 2006, 43 points were scored by freshmen, but 23 of those were in the women's 800m.  In 2007, the freshmen were bageled.  They put up a big fat zero.  Last year, freshmen athletes scored a total of 29 points across men (9) and women (20).  This year, the potential for freshman points might be the highest in history. 

German Fernandez, Chris Derrick, Luke Puskedra, Matt Centrowitz, Lacey Cramer, Chanelle Price, Christine Babcock, Mel Lawrence.  These eight freshmen all look to score significant points in their respective events.  Aside from maybe Puskedra, it would be a surprise to not see them in the scorers.  David McCarthy, Abdi Hassan, Diego Estrada, Girma Mecheso, Lucy Van Dalen, Emma Coburn.  Each of these athletes could easily sneak into the points by running a good race.

My pick: Over.  But not by much.  I'll be surprised if they score more than 47.

5.  Number of NCAA Meet Records Broken +/- 3.5

There are two distance races and two field events where the meet record looks ripe to go down.  The first is the women's steeplechase, where Jenny Barringer has to be looking to run a new PR for the distance.  She already owns the American and Collegiate records at the distance (9:22.26), as well as the NCAA Meet Record, set last year (9:29.20).  The other big potential for a meet record is in the women's high jump, where Texas's Destinee Hooker will look to take down Amy Acuff's record of 1.96 meters (6'5").  Hooker has jumped 1.98 indoors, but her season best so far outdoors is 1.95, just short of Acuff's mark.

The other distance record that looks particularly vulnerable is the men's 10,000 meters.  The meet record is 28:01.30.  It's hard to imagine Sam Chelanga being able to beat Rupp off of anything other than a smokin' fast pace.  But Rupp's already shown he can run sub-28 in a hot, humid Beijing, so if the pace is honest, I think this will go down.  The other big event will be the men's javelin.  Two Pac-10 athletes have battled for supremacy in this event all year.  Currently, Oregon's Cyrus Hostetler (83.16) has a small advantage over USC's Corey White (82.97).  But both have thrown well over the existing meet record of 81.86.

A couple other events to watch.  Women's Pole Vault, in which Katie Stripling looks to improve on her 4.40 best to take down the record of 4.41 meters.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see Oregon's Brianne Thiesen break the women's Heptathlon record (6061 pts).  Her best of 5986 is darn close.

My pick: Over.  I think this is going to be an NCAA meet to remember.  Big-time performances will abound.

4. Number of Mideast Region Qualifiers in Women's 800m Final +/- 5.5

The Mideast Region absolutely dominated the 800m distance this year.  Of the top 10 times in the country, seven were run by athletes in the Mideast, all of whom ran under 2:03.69.  In fact, I think the women's 800m might be the best race in the entire meet.  Two super freshmen, Lacey Cramer (indoor 800m champ) and Chanelle Price (2:01 in high school) as well as perennial favorites and former national champs LaTavia Thomas, Geena Gall, Heather Dorniden, and Phoebe Wright.  This field has enough depth that I don't think it's unreasonable to expect someone to make a big leap.  Winning time +/- 2:01?  I'd go under.

My pick: Over.  It's gonna be a Mideast affair.  But who will win it?  I'm going to go with Molly Beckwith of Indiana.  She's third on the descending order list, finished 5th in her regional, and she played on the Hoosiers soccer team her freshman year.  That means she's got the speed, the motivation, and the hmmm factor to get my vote.

3. Men's 1500m Final Winning Time +/- 3:38.50

On the one hand, it's seems impossible that German Fernandez will allow this race to be tactical, as he just doesn't run that way.  Some people think he can run 3:36 right now, and he might have to if he wants to run away from Centrowitz.  But in Fayetteville in June?  It'll be hot, humid, and maybe even windy.  On the other hand, throwing the whole thing to chance by letting it become a kicker's race seems even more risky.  Anyone can win a kicker's race, but even though there are six athletes who have broken 3:38 this year, only a couple could do it in Fayetteville.

My pick: Under.  I think German will take it from the gun, and challenge any and all to hang with him.  He may not win, but he'll dare everyone else to beat him.  If he can go 3:36, he'll win.  Anything less and I think he'll get outkicked.  I think the winner should be faster than 3:38.50, but the weather, gamesmanship, and pressure simply have to take their toll.  I'm gonna say under, but I don't think more than one person will do it. 

2. Margin of Victory for Jenny Barringer in the Steeplechase +/- 21 seconds

There are tons of great storylines in this steeple.  Will Jenny Barringer break the AR (yes) and by how much (5 seconds)?  Second, Nicole Bush and Bridget Franek should battle for second, with each looking like she could crack 9:30 later this year.  We could be looking at two future studs.  And third, there are athletes in this race in serious danger of getting lapped, even if they don't take a dip in the water pit.  Has that ever happened before at the 3k distance? 

I think it's worth noting that, should she break the steeplechase AR, Jenny will have run personal bests in every event this year, and broken 4 different collegiate records in the process.  I wish I'd had the guts to make the big call that Jenny would be the top American finisher at Pre, but I'll have to settle for my wife knowing I believed in her.  After all, she was my #1 .

My pick: Under .  Because Bush or Franek will run a big PR to just keep it under 20 seconds.

1a. Oregon's Total Team Points (M & W) +/- 106.5
1b. Oregon's Total Individual NCAA Champions (M & W) +/- 6.5

Oregon's men's squad looks to score somewhere between 60 and 70 points in this meet and literally run away with the title.  The men have 15 athletes going, and they include the favorites in six different events. 

The Lady Ducks have 13 going and are pegged to score between 40 and 50.  And while only one is a hands-down favorite to win (Theisen in the Heptathlon), there are a number of other athletes well capable of winning their events, most notably Blood (5000m) and Yurkovich (Javelin).

The way their teams look, if they are able to exceed either of the above numbers they'll go home with at least one, if not both, team titles.  If the men win, and they look like they will, it will complete an amazing trifecta: cross country, indoor and outdoor champions.  And if the women win, people might actually remember they have a women's team, too.

My picks: Under & Under.  But I do think they will win the men's title and will have at least 5 individual titles.  With only Rupp being a hands-down favorite (no, I don't believe Wheating is) it's just too much to ask for 7 individual titles.

******

Best of luck to all the competitors at the NCAA Championships, and a special shout out to my friend Scott Abbott who had two of his Sacramento State runners qualify for NCAAs in the 800m!
 

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Bryan ran cross country and track and field for UCLA, as well for Japanese ekiden teams while living in Japan. He now pretends to be a runner (mostly on weekends) and a writer (mostly after running). Check out his popular running blog Optimal Training and his distance running lenses at Buraian's Lensography . He welcomes your feedback via comment or email at buraian@lifeofburaian.com