2009 US Distance Running "Trade Values" - Intro

By Bryan Green

One of my favorite columns from one of my favorite columnists is the annual NBA Trade Value column by The Sports Guy at ESPN.  In it, he basically tries to rank all the top players in basketball according to how much long-term value they have, while taking into consideration a range of factors including salary, age, connection to the team/city, etc.  He writes it around the all-star break, and as I read it this year, I thought to myself, "How would this look for distance running?"

So here's the first annual USA distance running Trade Value column.  I'm publishing it after the USATF and NCAA Indoor Championships, because that's the best equivalent I can think of to the all-star break.  Distance running is obviously different from basketball in a number of ways--like, for instance, there are no trades--so the main gist of the selection criteria will be this: as a coach, if you had to pick one runner to bank on for the rest of their career, who would you choose? 

But that's too broad, really, because who could ever turn down the opportunity to spend every waking moment with Kara Goucher ?  No, we need more specific criteria.  Criteria that serve to mitigate Kara's devastating charm.  Maybe even criteria that have to do with running.

The Selection Criteria

So here they are.  I'll go into them in a little detail since this is the first annual (maybe) Trade Value column and I want the reasoning to be clear.

1. Legacy is primary.  Your legacy as a coach will be tied to this athlete forever.  When an athlete's name is mentioned, your name will be attached to it.  An athlete's legacy is created by:

1) winning major championships: world (and major marathons), national, collegiate, high school (in that order);
2) setting records: world, American, NCAA, junior, high school (in that order);
3) qualifying for national teams: track and cross country; and
4) consistently performing at the top of US distance running. 

If an athlete can redefine expectations in an event (see "Hall, Ryan: marathon"), all the better.  Therefore the ideal person would be a world record chasing high schooler committed to four years of college, as they stand to win the greatest number of championships across all levels.  It also means that collegiate athletes with inferior times to mid-tier pros have slightly more value if they are the best in their events at the NCAA level.  Would you rather take a mid-tier pro, or someone who has the potential to win some NCAA titles before becoming a mid-tier pro?  Exactly. 

2. This year has priority.  I want this to be a reflection, in part, of how athletes are performing right now, and right now is much easier to predict than four years from now (right Matt Withrow circa 2005?).  Therefore potential to win now is worth more than potential to win in 4 years, unless you're potentially winning something significantly bigger in the future.  If you are in finance, you can think of it as discounting the net present value of future winnings.  Or something like that. 

3. Age matters.  Would you rather have Bernard Lagat  for the rest of his career or German Fernandez  for the rest of his?  Deena Kastor or Kate O'Neill?  How long an athlete has left at the top will be a major factor in deciding their overall value.

4. Money matters.  It has to matter.  But there's one thing I've learned in prepping for this column, and that is the financial aspects of elite distance running are pretty opaque.  I didn't find any website that details pro runners' sponsorship contracts, career winnings, appearance fees, etc.  I'd really like money to be a factor here, though, so I came up with a rough gauge for how I classify athletes' financial situations, in this order of value:

Superstar: Likely earning substantial money (75k+)
Prospect: Still in school, but projects to earn superstar money in the future
Tour Pro: Likely earning enough to live off, but not rich by any means (20k-75k)
Up and Comer: Still in school, but will become a Tour Pro or Dreamer based on development
Dreamer: Probably scraping by in order to live the dream (mom's allowance-20k)
Dan Wilson: Likely to stop running altogether and have message boards devoted to his 4:54 mile on his 30th birthday.

This is a rough gauge, because I don't know, but I bounced it off a couple people I know in the business and they validated it.  One addendum, though.  Only running-related money counts.  Assume you'll get a 15% share of all winnings, record bonuses, appearance fees and sponsorships.  This list is meant to weight performances over personalities.  If Ryan Hall puts out a rap album or Kara Goucher starts selling her own perfume--you know you'd buy it--it doesn't count.  Not even if it's for charity, Ryan.

5. Gender does not matter.  Would you rather have Shannon Rowbury or Alan Webb for the rest of her or his career? You don't have to answer, but this is a perfectly valid scenario in creating this list.

6. Only distance running.  That's right, 800m and up.  With track, cross country, road races and marathons, there are a ton of events for runners to compete in, and the range of specialties makes comparisons between athletes pretty interesting to consider.  If someone else wants to tackle track and field as a whole, they can be my guest.

7. (This is the big one.)  Pretend the following rule was passed: Any runner can be traded at this moment without affecting college/high school eligibility, but runners would be bound by college/high school rules in terms of ability to make money.  You will coach them throughout whatever levels they advance to.  So, is the legacy a high school/collegiate athlete could set in school worth more than money being made by a pro today?

A few stats:

The list only goes through my top 50.  It includes 26 men and 24 women, as well as 26 pros, 19 collegiates, and 5 high school harriers.  I think those are pretty fair ratios given the above criteria.  It also has 21 800m/milers, 16 5000m/steeplers, and 13 10000m/marathoners.  When in doubt, I rounded down (for example, with high schoolers).  It also has just 21 Beijing Olympians (out of a possible 33), which kind of surprised me, but I've gone over this list a number of times and I think that's all I'd include.

Who didn't make it?

With only 50 athletes on the list, there are a number of notable exclusions that probably deserve at least a comment.  Here they are, by specialty:

800m: Christian Smith, Tevan Everett, Tyler Mulder, David Krummenacker, Katie Waits, Hazel Clark, Alysia Johnson, Nicole Teter, Kameisha Bennett-Martin, LaTavia Thomas, Heather Dorniden, Geena Gall, Phoebe Wright

The men don't require much comment, but there are a lot of top women being left off this list.  That's because there are so many at roughly the same ability level.  They are all as likely to keep each other off the podium as to be on it.  A good problem for the US, a bad problem for those seeking validation through a high trade value ranking.

1500m: Leonel Manzano, Chris Lukezic, Jon Rankin, William Leer, David Torrence, Matt Scherer, Michael Coe, Christy Wurth-Thomas, Sara Hall, Shayne Culpepper, Morgan Uceny, Tiffany McWilliams

The mile is pretty deep in the US, but it's also dominated by a couple athletes, most notably Bernard Lagat.  I specifically discuss the exclusion of Manzano and Lukezic later.  The women's side is much tougher to call as few of the athletes have been consistent over the last couple years. 

Steeplechase: Billy Nelson, Steve Slattery, Jake Morse, Kyle Alcorn, Brian Olinger, Jacques Sallberg, Lindsey Anderson, Delilah DiCrescenzo, Lisa Galaviz

I don't have that many steeplers on this list.  The women's steeple is dominated by two superstars, while the men's steeple is a hodgepodge in the 3-6 positions.  Jake Morse may be able to take an NCAA title this year, but he'll have to defeat a few foreigners to do it, and my gut tells me it's a low probability.

5000m: Ian Dobson, Bobby Curtis, Josh McDougal, Matt Withrow, Jonathan Riley, Adam Goucher, Andrew Bumbalough, Lauren Fleshman, Sara Slattery, Amy Mortimer, Frances Koons, Neely Spence, Ashley Brasovan

There are a few athletes on both the men's and women's side that were very close cuts.  Fleshman is close to being the best 5000m runner in the country, sometimes, but has had some injuries and we haven't heard from her recently.  The rest of the men on this list are all fully capable of making squads and running fast times, but will they?  They'll have to make a leap before they can get on my list.

10000m: Jorge Torres, Ed Moran, James Carney, Scott Bauhs, Josh Rohatinsky, Katie McGregor, Molly Huddle, Lindsey Scherf, Arianna Lambie

The 10k is a pretty deep event in the US.  There are a number of men running in the 27:40s and women running 31:40s who could sneak onto a team at any time.  But none of them project to win any titles, given the strength at the top.  I'm quite confident that a couple of the athletes on this list (as well as the 5000m) will be on this list in the future.  They just need to separate themselves a bit more from the pack.

Half & Marathon: Brian Sell, Jason Lehmkuhle, Josh Cox, Fernando Cabada, Justin Young, Fasil Bizuneh, Magdalena Lewy-Boulet, Kate O'Neill, Blake Russell, Colleen De Reuck

There has been increasing interest in the marathon at the elite level, with a lot of 10k people moving up to give it a shot.  It's pretty handily dominated by a handful of men, however, and the women haven't run particularly fast, making them largely uncompetitive in any majors.

Now, let's move on to the rankings!

 

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Next,  intro,  41-50,  31-40,  21-30,  11-20,  1-10. 


 

Bryan ran cross country and track and field for UCLA, as well for Japanese ekiden teams while living in Japan. He now pretends to be a runner (mostly on weekends) and a writer (mostly after running). Check out his popular running blog Optimal Training and his distance running lenses at Buraian's Lensography . He welcomes your feedback via comment or email at buraian@lifeofburaian.com