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2010 NCAA Outdoor Over-Unders
By Bryan Green
I don't know how we ever made it through a full track season without German Fernandez, but here we are. The NCAA Championships. It starts tomorrow and it finishes as part of arguably the biggest day of sports in as long as I can remember: NCAA Championships, NBA Finals Game 5, and USA-England. There's a realistic chance I won't see sunlight and I love it.
Let's go for another round of NCAA Over-Unders, where we take a look at the interesting match-ups, with a few World Cup and NBA Finals thoughts sprinkled in.
1. Total Championships for Andrew Wheating +/- 1.5
Let's not beat around the bush. The big matchup of the meet is setting up to be Andrew Wheating vs Robby Andrews in the 800m final. I don't want to get my hopes up too much, but the last 100 meters of this race might tell us an awful lot about the future of American 800m running. Can Andrews beat Wheating for a third time? It just seems unfathomable, especially given Wheating will run 1:44 low and sub-3:35 later this summer. But it could definitely happen.
More interesting to me is the fact that Wheating is entered in the 1500m as well. It's hard to picture him losing that race, even though there are a slew of sub-3:40 guys entered. Finally, Oregon has an outside chance at a team title, especially given they are competing at home. If Wheating can win two individual titles, he may just put them over the top for the team title as well.
My pick: Over. I think he's getting two titles, but I have no idea which ones.
2. Number of English victories on Saturday +/- 1.5
I'll be honest with you. Outside of Lee Emanuel, Charlotte Browning and the England soccer team, I have no idea how many English athletes even have an opportunity to win on Saturday. So let's start with the English soccer team. They are far and away a deeper team than the US, but I honestly believe it's going to be a good game. Will it be US-Portugal circa 2002? I can only hope.
Lee Emanuel is the twice reigning Indoor 1500m champ, and he's run 3:37.25 for the distance. The problem is he's facing Andrew Wheating (who beat him easily at the regional race), Matt Centrowitz (3:36.92 PR), and a host of sub-3:40 guys. Wheating will be doubling back off the 800m, which might just make him vulnerable, though. As for Browning, she's the reigning NCAA Indoor champ, and she just ran a PR 4:13.66 at her conference meet, but with Brenda Martinez, Sheila Reid and Katie Follett all in the race, it'll take something special to win it.
My pick: Under. I've been riding the Wheating train all year, it just doesn't feel right to stop now. I also think Brenda Martinez (#35 in my trade values) is the most under-rated female runner in the country right now. And since I'm on a role, I also think the US pulls out a draw. Boom!
3. Number of distance points scored by freshmen +/- 30
Freshman have scored the following points (distances only) over the past four years, starting in 2006: 43, 0, 29, 32. I thought we'd see over 40 with last year's amazing freshmen, but it just goes to show how tough it is for first years to score.
I count 24 freshmen competing from 800m to 10,000m. Most notable are Robby Andrews and Jordan Hasay, though they seem to be on different trajectories. Andrews looks almost unbeatable due to his kick while Hasay has looked worn down over the past few weeks. Other top freshman include Shelby Greany in the steeple, Mohammed Ahmed in the 10,000m, and Casimir Loxsom in the 800m. Most notably missing: Mac Fleet of Oregon, who finished 2nd in the 1500m Indoors.
My pick: Over. They'll get more than half the points in the 800m alone.
4. Number of Aussie points scored +/- 17
At last year's NCAAs, Aussie athletes scored 22 points. They were led by David McNeill (who is back) and Shawn Forrest (who graduated last year). They also got scoring efforts by Ryan Foster (800m) and Matt Gibney (1500m). What they didn't get was any support from the women, who got bageled.
I think that's going to change this year. McNeill will put up at least 8 points, and I think Zoe Buckman puts up at least 5. I saw her take down Katie Follett at the Pac 10 meet and she's just a competitor. After that, they just need a few points from some of the other athletes, and I think they are likely to get what they need from Foster, though he'll be in a very tough event.
My pick: Over. I learned last year not to bet against Aussie power. Read more about Australia's athletes competing at NCAAs.
5. Number of NCAA Meet Records broken +/- 1.5
Here are the ones that will definitely be challenged: Decathlon (Ashton Eaton), Heptathlon (Brianna Thiessen)
A few others could be challenged in the right circumstances: W 4x100m (Texas A&M), W 5000m (Koll, if Bizzarri and Koll battle from the gun), M 1500m (if Wheating, Ulrey and Emmanuel all go after it), W 400m (so many strong runners), W 10000m (Koll, if she just feels like smoking a 10k), W Triple Jump (Kim Williams broke it last year) and probably another couple I'm egregiously leaving out.
My pick: Under. I think Eaton will get his but that's it. I'd love to be proven wrong.
6. Distance points differential between Oregon and Oklahoma State +/- 26.5
Oregon is stacked, primarily in the 800m and 1500m. Oklahoma State has only one distance runner in Eugene. Say what? How does a team go from being National Champs in cross country to not being a threat to at least score double-digit points at NCAA Outdoors? Losing German for the season and Vail to graduation were major blows, but they must feel disappointed to not have Lowe, Mecheso or Chirchir in Eugene this weekend.
They do have one guy, however, and that's John Kosgei. He won the West Regional and while he is a Billy Mills-esque longshot to beat Chelanga, I could see him getting second in the 10,000m. In fact, I do see him getting 2nd.
My pick: Over. Oregon will feed off the home energy and cover the spread, even with Kosgei getting 2nd in the 10,000m.
7. Women's 800 meters winning time +/- 2:00.00
Phoebe Wright has looked outstanding all year and seems to be knocking on the doorstep to 2:00 repeatedly. Does the walk on-turned-superstar unleash another gear at NCAAs or just do enough to win?
My pick: Over. It's a really tough time to run. I'm hoping for it, but not counting on it.
8. Combined margin of victory in men's and women'd 10,000m +/- 1:10
The favorites are likely the best 10,000m runners in NCAA history. The fields are good but not great. The favorites are at their best when they run away from the field and set their own paces. If there's one event that's setting up to be a major blowout on both the men's and women's sides, it's the 10,000m.
The one thing that could derail this is bad weather. Windy or rainy weather could make the races slower and more tactical. I don't think this will affect Koll, but who knows what Chelanga is going to do.
My pick: Over. I think most of the differential will be set by Koll, who will blast away by 5k to win huge.
9. Number of games this NBA Finals is going to go +/- 6.5
How great have the first three games of the NBA Finals been? I swear Kobe is the Bernard Lagat of basketball. Grew up in a foreign country, one of the greatest of all time, had issues with accusations that were later dropped, totally cool under pressure (even if it doesn't always result in a win), and continues to dominate despite his age. Kobe's going for his fifth ring. Lagat has five US Outdoor titles.
As for this series, it looks like Lagat, er, Kobe's Lakers are in control. Still, I think this thing is going the distance. I want to see Game 7, Lakers down by 1, with the ball in Kobe's hand. It would be the shot heard round the world, part 2.
My pick: Over. It's going 7!
10. Number of to-the-wire epic distance races +/- 3.5
I see the following races as having blow-out potential: W 800, W steeple, M/W 10,000m. It'll take an act of individual greatness to make them compelling in that case. That leaves us the men's 800, both 1500s, men's steeple, and both 5000s as the most likely races to stay close.
I'm expecting to see epic battles in the men's 800 and women's 5000, as I don't think Wheating or Koll (the favorites) can shake Andrews or Bizzarri (the former champs), respectively. If Wheating runs tactically, it'll be an interesting 1500m race as well. I think there's a 50/50 chance that Martinez runs away with the 1500m for the women, and an even better chance that Chelanga, McNeill, Bethke, and Derrick will drop an amazing 5000m race.
My pick: Over. There is so much talent in the NCAA right now, and a great deal of parity in most events. Those are the ingredients for amazing.
I don't know how we ever made it through a full track season without German Fernandez, but here we are. The NCAA Championships. It starts tomorrow and it finishes as part of arguably the biggest day of sports in as long as I can remember: NCAA Championships, NBA Finals Game 5, and USA-England. There's a realistic chance I won't see sunlight and I love it.
Let's go for another round of NCAA Over-Unders, where we take a look at the interesting match-ups, with a few World Cup and NBA Finals thoughts sprinkled in.
 If Wheating wins two, Oregon might win one. |
Let's not beat around the bush. The big matchup of the meet is setting up to be Andrew Wheating vs Robby Andrews in the 800m final. I don't want to get my hopes up too much, but the last 100 meters of this race might tell us an awful lot about the future of American 800m running. Can Andrews beat Wheating for a third time? It just seems unfathomable, especially given Wheating will run 1:44 low and sub-3:35 later this summer. But it could definitely happen.
More interesting to me is the fact that Wheating is entered in the 1500m as well. It's hard to picture him losing that race, even though there are a slew of sub-3:40 guys entered. Finally, Oregon has an outside chance at a team title, especially given they are competing at home. If Wheating can win two individual titles, he may just put them over the top for the team title as well.
My pick: Over. I think he's getting two titles, but I have no idea which ones.
2. Number of English victories on Saturday +/- 1.5
I'll be honest with you. Outside of Lee Emanuel, Charlotte Browning and the England soccer team, I have no idea how many English athletes even have an opportunity to win on Saturday. So let's start with the English soccer team. They are far and away a deeper team than the US, but I honestly believe it's going to be a good game. Will it be US-Portugal circa 2002? I can only hope.
Lee Emanuel is the twice reigning Indoor 1500m champ, and he's run 3:37.25 for the distance. The problem is he's facing Andrew Wheating (who beat him easily at the regional race), Matt Centrowitz (3:36.92 PR), and a host of sub-3:40 guys. Wheating will be doubling back off the 800m, which might just make him vulnerable, though. As for Browning, she's the reigning NCAA Indoor champ, and she just ran a PR 4:13.66 at her conference meet, but with Brenda Martinez, Sheila Reid and Katie Follett all in the race, it'll take something special to win it.
My pick: Under. I've been riding the Wheating train all year, it just doesn't feel right to stop now. I also think Brenda Martinez (#35 in my trade values) is the most under-rated female runner in the country right now. And since I'm on a role, I also think the US pulls out a draw. Boom!
3. Number of distance points scored by freshmen +/- 30
Freshman have scored the following points (distances only) over the past four years, starting in 2006: 43, 0, 29, 32. I thought we'd see over 40 with last year's amazing freshmen, but it just goes to show how tough it is for first years to score.
I count 24 freshmen competing from 800m to 10,000m. Most notable are Robby Andrews and Jordan Hasay, though they seem to be on different trajectories. Andrews looks almost unbeatable due to his kick while Hasay has looked worn down over the past few weeks. Other top freshman include Shelby Greany in the steeple, Mohammed Ahmed in the 10,000m, and Casimir Loxsom in the 800m. Most notably missing: Mac Fleet of Oregon, who finished 2nd in the 1500m Indoors.
My pick: Over. They'll get more than half the points in the 800m alone.
 At NCAA Indoors, McNeill ran away from Chelanga and the field. But can he run away from Chelanga again? |
4. Number of Aussie points scored +/- 17
At last year's NCAAs, Aussie athletes scored 22 points. They were led by David McNeill (who is back) and Shawn Forrest (who graduated last year). They also got scoring efforts by Ryan Foster (800m) and Matt Gibney (1500m). What they didn't get was any support from the women, who got bageled.
I think that's going to change this year. McNeill will put up at least 8 points, and I think Zoe Buckman puts up at least 5. I saw her take down Katie Follett at the Pac 10 meet and she's just a competitor. After that, they just need a few points from some of the other athletes, and I think they are likely to get what they need from Foster, though he'll be in a very tough event.
My pick: Over. I learned last year not to bet against Aussie power. Read more about Australia's athletes competing at NCAAs.
5. Number of NCAA Meet Records broken +/- 1.5
Here are the ones that will definitely be challenged: Decathlon (Ashton Eaton), Heptathlon (Brianna Thiessen)
 Eaton is so good it'll almost be disappointing if he doesn't break the NCAA Meet Record. |
My pick: Under. I think Eaton will get his but that's it. I'd love to be proven wrong.
6. Distance points differential between Oregon and Oklahoma State +/- 26.5
Oregon is stacked, primarily in the 800m and 1500m. Oklahoma State has only one distance runner in Eugene. Say what? How does a team go from being National Champs in cross country to not being a threat to at least score double-digit points at NCAA Outdoors? Losing German for the season and Vail to graduation were major blows, but they must feel disappointed to not have Lowe, Mecheso or Chirchir in Eugene this weekend.
They do have one guy, however, and that's John Kosgei. He won the West Regional and while he is a Billy Mills-esque longshot to beat Chelanga, I could see him getting second in the 10,000m. In fact, I do see him getting 2nd.
My pick: Over. Oregon will feed off the home energy and cover the spread, even with Kosgei getting 2nd in the 10,000m.
7. Women's 800 meters winning time +/- 2:00.00
Phoebe Wright has looked outstanding all year and seems to be knocking on the doorstep to 2:00 repeatedly. Does the walk on-turned-superstar unleash another gear at NCAAs or just do enough to win?
My pick: Over. It's a really tough time to run. I'm hoping for it, but not counting on it.
 Expect to see something like this by the halfway point of the 10,000 meter final. |
8. Combined margin of victory in men's and women'd 10,000m +/- 1:10
The favorites are likely the best 10,000m runners in NCAA history. The fields are good but not great. The favorites are at their best when they run away from the field and set their own paces. If there's one event that's setting up to be a major blowout on both the men's and women's sides, it's the 10,000m.
The one thing that could derail this is bad weather. Windy or rainy weather could make the races slower and more tactical. I don't think this will affect Koll, but who knows what Chelanga is going to do.
My pick: Over. I think most of the differential will be set by Koll, who will blast away by 5k to win huge.
9. Number of games this NBA Finals is going to go +/- 6.5
 This is what a 12:54 looks like on the basketball court. |
As for this series, it looks like Lagat, er, Kobe's Lakers are in control. Still, I think this thing is going the distance. I want to see Game 7, Lakers down by 1, with the ball in Kobe's hand. It would be the shot heard round the world, part 2.
My pick: Over. It's going 7!
10. Number of to-the-wire epic distance races +/- 3.5
I see the following races as having blow-out potential: W 800, W steeple, M/W 10,000m. It'll take an act of individual greatness to make them compelling in that case. That leaves us the men's 800, both 1500s, men's steeple, and both 5000s as the most likely races to stay close.
I'm expecting to see epic battles in the men's 800 and women's 5000, as I don't think Wheating or Koll (the favorites) can shake Andrews or Bizzarri (the former champs), respectively. If Wheating runs tactically, it'll be an interesting 1500m race as well. I think there's a 50/50 chance that Martinez runs away with the 1500m for the women, and an even better chance that Chelanga, McNeill, Bethke, and Derrick will drop an amazing 5000m race.
My pick: Over. There is so much talent in the NCAA right now, and a great deal of parity in most events. Those are the ingredients for amazing.
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