.jpg)
.jpg)
2010 USA XC Preview
By Bryan Green
As I wrote in last year's USA Cross Country Preview, I've always kind of liked cross country more than track and field. Once track season gets underway, athletes get more and more locked into their specialties. You don't get to see top steeplers, milers and 10k runners going head-to-head all that often.
On top of that, the course itself is a major factor. The track is designed for speed, but cross country is designed or strength. To be a great cross country runner you have to be more than just a kicker or a pace-runner or a beast on the hills. You need to be a tactician, tweaking your strategy to suit the course and the competition. Cross country victories don't just go to the best, they go to the best prepared.
On the world level this is pretty much understood. Most fans acknowledge that the World Cross Country meet is the toughest distance race in the world to win. You have to beat the best of the best to be a world champion in cross country, not just the subset of the best who happen to focus on your event, like in track. Given that, the USA Cross Country Championships must be the toughest distance race in the US to win, right?
Um, no. Unfortunately, the majority of our country's best distance runners treat cross country like the proverbial "red-headed stepchild". They begrudgingly make time for it in their schedules every once in a while, but they don't really pay it the attention it deserves.
It's not hard to understand why, really. In high school and college, there is an entire season of races culminating in both a team and individual championship (or two). The pros have no such season, at least not domestically. Cross country consists of signing up to run one race (USAs), and then if you're good enough, skipping the world championships for something more lucrative. The only people who focus on cross country are those who aren't yet making money on the track or the roads.
As a result, fans have to settle for making the best of what they get. There are always a few top names each year--this year is no exception, with Ritz and Flanagan in attendance--but the question "Will Ritz/Shalane win by 30 seconds or just 15?" doesn't exactly get the average fan emotionally tied to the outcome.
And with no team competition--let's be honest, the real team competition for USA XC is the club championships, not USAs--the only other point of interest is who will finish in the top six. It's like a battle of AAA baseball players vying for a September call-up to the majors. It'll be great experience for them, but as a fan you're still a bit disappointed that they are taking at bats away from the stars.
It's a shame we've let it come to this. Especially in a year when there is no global track championship being held. If anything, this is the year that the IAAF and USATF needed to be providing whatever incentives they could to get America's best and brightest stars out on the turf and, eventually, over to Bydgoszcz for the World Cross Country Championships. That would have had to happen long ago, however, so unfortunately we won't be seeing most of America's best this weekend.
(Seriously, though, what can we do to get the top Americans running USA XC and eventually World XC? Is it hopeless? We must be able to fix this, right? I'd love to know your thoughts in the comments. Okay, back to your regularly scheduled preview column.)
What we will see this weekend are a bunch of very good runners who probably don't get their due. After all, the gap between AAA and the majors isn't that wide. Could one of them break out and become a star in "the majors"? Absolutely, and maybe that breakout will start this Saturday. In the meantime, let's get a little background on who's actually running in these races.
Men's Open 12k Championship
The men's race looks to be the Ritzenhein Romp this year. Ritz is arguably the best distance runner in the country right now and cross country is arguably his best event. If he's fit--and let's be honest, even if he's not--he's got to be the favorite to demolish the field. As he's already stated he hopes to go to World Cross and contend for a medal, we can expect he'll be ready to go in Spokane.
The rest of the field is a little harder to peg. There are some very strong runners, including 2009 WXC top finisher Ryan Vail (33rd), 3-time WXC qualifiers Max King (40th, 2009) and Matt Gabrielson (79th, 2005), Olympic steeplechaser Billy Nelson (8:21), D-2 champ Scott Bauhs (13:28/27:48), 2:13 marathoner Nick Arciniaga, and recent Houston half marathon winner Antonio Vega (61:54). It's probably worth bringing up steeplers Ben Bruce (8:26/13:36) and Mike Spence (8:31), as well as Olympic triathlete Jarrod Shoemaker, too.
The real question is when Ritz will go and who, if anyone, will go with him. I can see Bauhs making that move, and wouldn't be surprised if Vail or Gabrielson used it as an opportunity to gain separation from the other runners. On the other hand, it could be a big risk if these guys aren't ready to run this entire race by themselves. King will likely run tough, as he's shown repeatedly he knows how to get himself into the top six. I think Nelson and Arciniaga are a little out of their elements, and I think Bruce, if healthy, is probably the next tier-two runner ready to break out.
My predictions: Ritz wins by 36 seconds, cruising the last 2k. Bauhs holds off Gabrielson for 2nd, with a hard-charging Antonio Vega taking 4th ahead of Ryan Vail. Max King and Bruce battle it out for 6th with Bruce nipping him at the end. Max King will be the alternate.
Complete men's field here.
Women's Open 8k Championship
There are some similarities to the men's field in how it stacks up, but also some important differences. Shalane Flanagan is the Ritz of the field, the clear favorite to win. Not only does she project to be America's greatest distance athlete ever, she's just debuted at the half marathon in a stellar 1:09:41 time that puts her 6th all-time in the US. Unlike Ritz, however, she showed a chink in her armor last year and it remains to be seen whether Shalane v2008--the Shalane that smoked everyone at USA XC in San Diego--is back and ready to roll.
After Shalane, the women's field is comprised of a number of veterans. 2009 champ Emily Brown returns (15:19 5k), as well as Olympic marathoners Magdalena Lewy-Boulet (2:30:19) and Blake Russell (2:29:10). Katie McGregor is a five-time WXC qualifier and boasts strong track PRs (15:22/31:21). Molly Huddle, the US Jr 5k record holder, recently ran 15:20 indoors, so she's certainly fit as well. On the fringe are other solid runners like Sara Hall (4:08/15:20), Amy Hastings (71:19 half in Houston) and 2009 WXC qualifiers Delilah DiCrescenzo (33rd) and Kathy Newberry (40th).
With a lot of strength runners in this field, I think there's a good chance the race will go out hard and stay that way. That doesn't mean it will be close, as any betting man would have to wager on the field getting strung out early (as all women's races do). Still, it's hard to bet against athletes like McGregor and Brown given their recent successes and Huddle's solo performance makes her a strong favorite as well.
My predictions: Flanagan wins running away. Is it possible someone will give her a go of it? Sure, perhaps Huddle will be feeling frisky, but Shalane is simply too good if she's on her game. I think Huddle will finish a strong 2nd, with McGregor beating Brown for 3rd. I think we'll see Magda run a strong race for 5th, but the real battle will be between Kathy Newberry and Amy Hastings for 6th, with Newberry taking it.
Complete women's field here.
Men's Junior 8k Championships
We were treated to a once-in-a-decade field at last year's USA's, where German Fernandez, Chris Derrick, and Luke Puskedra all went toe-to-toe, making it the race of the day. This year is back to normal, with a number of college freshmen and a few top high school athletes taking part.
The biggest name is probably Trevor Dunbar of Portland (2nd at Foot Locker, 2008). He's most famous for his 9:01 two-mile on ice and snow in Kodiak, Alaska, but he was the 4th frosh at NCAAs and his program at UP should have him primed and ready to go in this race. Top high school harriers Shane Moskowitz (9th FL 2009) and Ammar Moussa (4th NXN 2009, 4:14i mile at BIG) stand out slightly, but this is simply not a field that's going to make you say, "I was there to see them throw down".
To be honest, I have no idea what to expect from this race. The NCAA freshman class was less than inspiring during cross country, and the nation's top high school athletes (Verzbicas, Lutz, Gedyon, Rosa, McElroy, Meddles) are all skipping the event. I'm going to say Dunbar wins it, and that both Moskowitz and Moussa qualify. The other spots will be taken by college freshmen whom I've still never heard of.
Complete junior men's field here.
Women's Junior 6k Championships
Could this be even less intriguing than the men's race? Um, yeah... With no Jordan Hasay, Allie McLaughlin, Kathy Kroeger, Ashley Brasovan, Megan Goethals or Chelsey Sveinsson, the women's junior race will have none of the top athletes we've come to know over the past two years. On the plus side, there's also no Neely Spence favored to win the race easily. I enjoyed watching Spence last year, but I like the unpredictability of not having a clear favorite.
The top collegiate athlete might be Shelby Greany of Providence, who had an up-and-down cross season that saw her 2nd in the Northeast Regional but only 89th at NCAAs. Emily Jones of Georgetown was a FL Regional champ and 13th place finisher in 2008 but was only 99th at NCAAs in 2009. There are two top high schoolers competing in the event in Foot Locker 3rd placer Emily Sisson and FL West Region champion Molly Grabill (8th in this race last year), but outside of them, the field isn't all that well known.
This race is a total crapshoot. I'm going to go with my old motto of "go big or go home" with my predictions and I'm going to pick the high schooler to win it. Emily Sisson and Emily Jones make it a big day for Emilys as they go 1-2. Molly Grabill runs a solid 3rd and Shelby Greany takes 4th. Fifth and sixth places go to ... (closing eyes and throwing darts) ... 16-year old Rolonda Jumbo (9th last year as a 15-year old!) and Lacey Nation (love these names!).
Complete junior women's field here.
There is no indication that the meet will be streamed live on USATF's official meet home page, but hopefully Runnerspace and Flotrack will be there to capture some of the action!
As I wrote in last year's USA Cross Country Preview, I've always kind of liked cross country more than track and field. Once track season gets underway, athletes get more and more locked into their specialties. You don't get to see top steeplers, milers and 10k runners going head-to-head all that often. On top of that, the course itself is a major factor. The track is designed for speed, but cross country is designed or strength. To be a great cross country runner you have to be more than just a kicker or a pace-runner or a beast on the hills. You need to be a tactician, tweaking your strategy to suit the course and the competition. Cross country victories don't just go to the best, they go to the best prepared.
On the world level this is pretty much understood. Most fans acknowledge that the World Cross Country meet is the toughest distance race in the world to win. You have to beat the best of the best to be a world champion in cross country, not just the subset of the best who happen to focus on your event, like in track. Given that, the USA Cross Country Championships must be the toughest distance race in the US to win, right?
Um, no. Unfortunately, the majority of our country's best distance runners treat cross country like the proverbial "red-headed stepchild". They begrudgingly make time for it in their schedules every once in a while, but they don't really pay it the attention it deserves.
It's not hard to understand why, really. In high school and college, there is an entire season of races culminating in both a team and individual championship (or two). The pros have no such season, at least not domestically. Cross country consists of signing up to run one race (USAs), and then if you're good enough, skipping the world championships for something more lucrative. The only people who focus on cross country are those who aren't yet making money on the track or the roads.
As a result, fans have to settle for making the best of what they get. There are always a few top names each year--this year is no exception, with Ritz and Flanagan in attendance--but the question "Will Ritz/Shalane win by 30 seconds or just 15?" doesn't exactly get the average fan emotionally tied to the outcome.
And with no team competition--let's be honest, the real team competition for USA XC is the club championships, not USAs--the only other point of interest is who will finish in the top six. It's like a battle of AAA baseball players vying for a September call-up to the majors. It'll be great experience for them, but as a fan you're still a bit disappointed that they are taking at bats away from the stars.
It's a shame we've let it come to this. Especially in a year when there is no global track championship being held. If anything, this is the year that the IAAF and USATF needed to be providing whatever incentives they could to get America's best and brightest stars out on the turf and, eventually, over to Bydgoszcz for the World Cross Country Championships. That would have had to happen long ago, however, so unfortunately we won't be seeing most of America's best this weekend.
(Seriously, though, what can we do to get the top Americans running USA XC and eventually World XC? Is it hopeless? We must be able to fix this, right? I'd love to know your thoughts in the comments. Okay, back to your regularly scheduled preview column.)
What we will see this weekend are a bunch of very good runners who probably don't get their due. After all, the gap between AAA and the majors isn't that wide. Could one of them break out and become a star in "the majors"? Absolutely, and maybe that breakout will start this Saturday. In the meantime, let's get a little background on who's actually running in these races.
Men's Open 12k ChampionshipThe men's race looks to be the Ritzenhein Romp this year. Ritz is arguably the best distance runner in the country right now and cross country is arguably his best event. If he's fit--and let's be honest, even if he's not--he's got to be the favorite to demolish the field. As he's already stated he hopes to go to World Cross and contend for a medal, we can expect he'll be ready to go in Spokane.
The rest of the field is a little harder to peg. There are some very strong runners, including 2009 WXC top finisher Ryan Vail (33rd), 3-time WXC qualifiers Max King (40th, 2009) and Matt Gabrielson (79th, 2005), Olympic steeplechaser Billy Nelson (8:21), D-2 champ Scott Bauhs (13:28/27:48), 2:13 marathoner Nick Arciniaga, and recent Houston half marathon winner Antonio Vega (61:54). It's probably worth bringing up steeplers Ben Bruce (8:26/13:36) and Mike Spence (8:31), as well as Olympic triathlete Jarrod Shoemaker, too.
The real question is when Ritz will go and who, if anyone, will go with him. I can see Bauhs making that move, and wouldn't be surprised if Vail or Gabrielson used it as an opportunity to gain separation from the other runners. On the other hand, it could be a big risk if these guys aren't ready to run this entire race by themselves. King will likely run tough, as he's shown repeatedly he knows how to get himself into the top six. I think Nelson and Arciniaga are a little out of their elements, and I think Bruce, if healthy, is probably the next tier-two runner ready to break out.
My predictions: Ritz wins by 36 seconds, cruising the last 2k. Bauhs holds off Gabrielson for 2nd, with a hard-charging Antonio Vega taking 4th ahead of Ryan Vail. Max King and Bruce battle it out for 6th with Bruce nipping him at the end. Max King will be the alternate.
Complete men's field here.
Women's Open 8k ChampionshipThere are some similarities to the men's field in how it stacks up, but also some important differences. Shalane Flanagan is the Ritz of the field, the clear favorite to win. Not only does she project to be America's greatest distance athlete ever, she's just debuted at the half marathon in a stellar 1:09:41 time that puts her 6th all-time in the US. Unlike Ritz, however, she showed a chink in her armor last year and it remains to be seen whether Shalane v2008--the Shalane that smoked everyone at USA XC in San Diego--is back and ready to roll.
After Shalane, the women's field is comprised of a number of veterans. 2009 champ Emily Brown returns (15:19 5k), as well as Olympic marathoners Magdalena Lewy-Boulet (2:30:19) and Blake Russell (2:29:10). Katie McGregor is a five-time WXC qualifier and boasts strong track PRs (15:22/31:21). Molly Huddle, the US Jr 5k record holder, recently ran 15:20 indoors, so she's certainly fit as well. On the fringe are other solid runners like Sara Hall (4:08/15:20), Amy Hastings (71:19 half in Houston) and 2009 WXC qualifiers Delilah DiCrescenzo (33rd) and Kathy Newberry (40th).
With a lot of strength runners in this field, I think there's a good chance the race will go out hard and stay that way. That doesn't mean it will be close, as any betting man would have to wager on the field getting strung out early (as all women's races do). Still, it's hard to bet against athletes like McGregor and Brown given their recent successes and Huddle's solo performance makes her a strong favorite as well.
My predictions: Flanagan wins running away. Is it possible someone will give her a go of it? Sure, perhaps Huddle will be feeling frisky, but Shalane is simply too good if she's on her game. I think Huddle will finish a strong 2nd, with McGregor beating Brown for 3rd. I think we'll see Magda run a strong race for 5th, but the real battle will be between Kathy Newberry and Amy Hastings for 6th, with Newberry taking it.
Complete women's field here.
Men's Junior 8k ChampionshipsWe were treated to a once-in-a-decade field at last year's USA's, where German Fernandez, Chris Derrick, and Luke Puskedra all went toe-to-toe, making it the race of the day. This year is back to normal, with a number of college freshmen and a few top high school athletes taking part.
The biggest name is probably Trevor Dunbar of Portland (2nd at Foot Locker, 2008). He's most famous for his 9:01 two-mile on ice and snow in Kodiak, Alaska, but he was the 4th frosh at NCAAs and his program at UP should have him primed and ready to go in this race. Top high school harriers Shane Moskowitz (9th FL 2009) and Ammar Moussa (4th NXN 2009, 4:14i mile at BIG) stand out slightly, but this is simply not a field that's going to make you say, "I was there to see them throw down".
To be honest, I have no idea what to expect from this race. The NCAA freshman class was less than inspiring during cross country, and the nation's top high school athletes (Verzbicas, Lutz, Gedyon, Rosa, McElroy, Meddles) are all skipping the event. I'm going to say Dunbar wins it, and that both Moskowitz and Moussa qualify. The other spots will be taken by college freshmen whom I've still never heard of.
Complete junior men's field here.
Women's Junior 6k ChampionshipsCould this be even less intriguing than the men's race? Um, yeah... With no Jordan Hasay, Allie McLaughlin, Kathy Kroeger, Ashley Brasovan, Megan Goethals or Chelsey Sveinsson, the women's junior race will have none of the top athletes we've come to know over the past two years. On the plus side, there's also no Neely Spence favored to win the race easily. I enjoyed watching Spence last year, but I like the unpredictability of not having a clear favorite.
The top collegiate athlete might be Shelby Greany of Providence, who had an up-and-down cross season that saw her 2nd in the Northeast Regional but only 89th at NCAAs. Emily Jones of Georgetown was a FL Regional champ and 13th place finisher in 2008 but was only 99th at NCAAs in 2009. There are two top high schoolers competing in the event in Foot Locker 3rd placer Emily Sisson and FL West Region champion Molly Grabill (8th in this race last year), but outside of them, the field isn't all that well known.
This race is a total crapshoot. I'm going to go with my old motto of "go big or go home" with my predictions and I'm going to pick the high schooler to win it. Emily Sisson and Emily Jones make it a big day for Emilys as they go 1-2. Molly Grabill runs a solid 3rd and Shelby Greany takes 4th. Fifth and sixth places go to ... (closing eyes and throwing darts) ... 16-year old Rolonda Jumbo (9th last year as a 15-year old!) and Lacey Nation (love these names!).
Complete junior women's field here.
There is no indication that the meet will be streamed live on USATF's official meet home page, but hopefully Runnerspace and Flotrack will be there to capture some of the action!
.jpg)
.jpg)
