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2009 Women's NCAA XC Preview: By Bryan Green
By Bryan Green
(For my men's preview, click here)
There's an old story about how the Chevy Nova didn't sell in Latin America because in Spanish the words "no va" mean "it doesn't go". My dad used to tell me this story as one of his random factoids that he assumed to be true because, well, everyone had heard the same story so it must have been, right? Actually, it isn't true. But that's not the only story I've heard about a Nova that isn't true. Take Villanova, for example. I spoke with a friend who was adamant that despite Nova's recent performances, the Huskies of Washington are unbeatable this year. He was essentially saying that when it comes to running against the Huskies, even #2 Nova will "no va". Well, I disagree. Not only will they "va", they're going to va va va voom all the way to the title.
As I wrote about Oklahoma State in my men's preview, this year's team battle in the NCAA Cross Country Championships women's race wasn't looking to be much more than a skirmish at the beginning of the year. That's because the Washington Huskies returned nearly everyone from the squad that won NCAAs last year with a grand total of 79 points. In fact, that team almost put all seven in front of every other team's fourth runner (only Oregon put 4 in before their 7th). Just like last year, they are too deep, too strong. They are like a teenager in a pillow fight with kindergarten students. There's no challenge they can't absorb and there's no attack they can't repel. They were dominant last year and this year would be the same.
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The individual race was even more lopsided on paper, though, with the world class Jenny Barringer--whom I ranked #1 in hypothetical trade value amongst all Americans earlier this year--choosing to come back after her amazing summer and compete in cross country. She's won every race by about half a minute, often getting that big a lead in the first 3k and cruising to victory. It's always possible that she'll be felled by injury or illness, but if she's healthy there isn't anybody who can compete with her in the collegiate ranks. I fully expect her to not only win the race, but to break a few of these records in the process:
--6k course record
--Largest margin of victory at the NCAA championships
--Largest gap between 1st and 2nd at the half-way mark
--Most men whose 6k split is slower than her winning time
--Most fans looking at the gap she's created and saying "Oh my God look at that gap she's created!"
So as a fan, I wasn't expecting much competition in the women's race. But just when I worried it was going to be anti-climactic, up stepped Villanova. The number two ranked team in the country certainly isn't running like a #2. In fact, the way they dominated the Mid-Atlantic Region--which included #4 Princeton, #7 West Virginia, #11 Penn State and #12 Georgetown--they look like they can run with literally anybody. In fact, dominated might not be a strong enough word for what they did. They put up 23 points, placed all five in the top 10, put their seventh finisher in before any other team's #3, and had four finishers in before second place Princeton's top finisher.
Sure, it would have been a different story with Washington in that race, but Villanova has a number of things going for them. They have a front-runner in Sheila Reid who has won four races this year, proving she knows how to win. They have a top five that are within about 30 seconds of each other, meaning their fifth runner will likely be finishing somewhere in the high 20s/early 30s at NCAAs. They should be ready for the cold weather being from Pennsylvania and they will undoubtedly be running as the hunters to the Huskies' hunted.
Should Washington be afraid? No, but they'd better be aware. They still have the best team in the country, and they should remain the favorites to take home the title, but for the first time, they have to have a good race to do it. That's a position Washington hasn't been in for a couple years now. It remains to be seen how they'll respond if, say, they look up at the 5k mark and see a bunch of Villanova jerseys in front of them. Oregon made Pac-10s much closer than it should have been, and in a field the size and quality of NCAAs, an off day can mean double digits in terms of points.
For Washington, I think it comes down to what type of race Schaaf tries to run. If she goes out hard and chases Barringer, I think she could get eaten up in the last 2k and the team will suffer. If she races more conservatively, she should be a solid top-5 finisher and the Huskies will be on their way to a repeat championship. For Villanova, they need to have big races from their top two, Reid and Amanda Marino. If they get both near the top ten, they have a chance. If not, they won't be able to make up the difference on the back side because Washington is simply too deep.
Women's Team Predictions
It's either Washington by 20 or Villanova by 2. I think it's going to be Villanova by 2. Yes, I'm a sucker for the underdog. Yes, I realize I could look like a fool in a few days. No, I'm not going to play it safe. In fact, scratch that. Villanova by 3. That's right, I did just go there. In a distant 3rd, I'm picking Florida to eek it out over Colorado, who finishes just in front of Oregon. Florida has a very solid top three, Colorado's racing four against five because they have Barringer, and something tells me Oregon's best race was at Pac-10s. The most exciting thing about Oregon's race will be seeing where Jordan Hasay finishes.
1. Villanova (by 3)
2. Washington
3. Florida
4. Colorado
5. Oregon
Women's Individual Predictions
I've already said what I think about Barringer. I think Kuijken is the clear #2, but Bizzarri will give her a run for it. As I mentioned above, I think Schaaf is going to go out a little above her head and get run down by some of the other top women. Most notably, I think Sheila Reid will place very high for Villanova, giving them that little boost they need to take the team title.
1. Jenny Barringer, Colorado
2. Susan Kuijken, Florida State
3. Angela Bizzarri, Illinois
4. Sheila Reid, Villanova
5. Bridget Franek, Penn State
Top Freshman
Jordan Hasay, Oregon - yes, I almost picked McLaughlin from Colorado, but realistically, Hasay is a top ten runner in the country right now on any given day, and McLaughlin might be on her best day. I think Hasay will finish 9th and be the top Duck. McLaughlin will be top 20, but she certainly won't be the top Buffalo.
(For my men's preview, click here)
There's an old story about how the Chevy Nova didn't sell in Latin America because in Spanish the words "no va" mean "it doesn't go". My dad used to tell me this story as one of his random factoids that he assumed to be true because, well, everyone had heard the same story so it must have been, right? Actually, it isn't true. But that's not the only story I've heard about a Nova that isn't true. Take Villanova, for example. I spoke with a friend who was adamant that despite Nova's recent performances, the Huskies of Washington are unbeatable this year. He was essentially saying that when it comes to running against the Huskies, even #2 Nova will "no va". Well, I disagree. Not only will they "va", they're going to va va va voom all the way to the title.
As I wrote about Oklahoma State in my men's preview, this year's team battle in the NCAA Cross Country Championships women's race wasn't looking to be much more than a skirmish at the beginning of the year. That's because the Washington Huskies returned nearly everyone from the squad that won NCAAs last year with a grand total of 79 points. In fact, that team almost put all seven in front of every other team's fourth runner (only Oregon put 4 in before their 7th). Just like last year, they are too deep, too strong. They are like a teenager in a pillow fight with kindergarten students. There's no challenge they can't absorb and there's no attack they can't repel. They were dominant last year and this year would be the same.
The individual race was even more lopsided on paper, though, with the world class Jenny Barringer--whom I ranked #1 in hypothetical trade value amongst all Americans earlier this year--choosing to come back after her amazing summer and compete in cross country. She's won every race by about half a minute, often getting that big a lead in the first 3k and cruising to victory. It's always possible that she'll be felled by injury or illness, but if she's healthy there isn't anybody who can compete with her in the collegiate ranks. I fully expect her to not only win the race, but to break a few of these records in the process:--6k course record
--Largest margin of victory at the NCAA championships
--Largest gap between 1st and 2nd at the half-way mark
--Most men whose 6k split is slower than her winning time
--Most fans looking at the gap she's created and saying "Oh my God look at that gap she's created!"
So as a fan, I wasn't expecting much competition in the women's race. But just when I worried it was going to be anti-climactic, up stepped Villanova. The number two ranked team in the country certainly isn't running like a #2. In fact, the way they dominated the Mid-Atlantic Region--which included #4 Princeton, #7 West Virginia, #11 Penn State and #12 Georgetown--they look like they can run with literally anybody. In fact, dominated might not be a strong enough word for what they did. They put up 23 points, placed all five in the top 10, put their seventh finisher in before any other team's #3, and had four finishers in before second place Princeton's top finisher.
Sure, it would have been a different story with Washington in that race, but Villanova has a number of things going for them. They have a front-runner in Sheila Reid who has won four races this year, proving she knows how to win. They have a top five that are within about 30 seconds of each other, meaning their fifth runner will likely be finishing somewhere in the high 20s/early 30s at NCAAs. They should be ready for the cold weather being from Pennsylvania and they will undoubtedly be running as the hunters to the Huskies' hunted.Should Washington be afraid? No, but they'd better be aware. They still have the best team in the country, and they should remain the favorites to take home the title, but for the first time, they have to have a good race to do it. That's a position Washington hasn't been in for a couple years now. It remains to be seen how they'll respond if, say, they look up at the 5k mark and see a bunch of Villanova jerseys in front of them. Oregon made Pac-10s much closer than it should have been, and in a field the size and quality of NCAAs, an off day can mean double digits in terms of points.
For Washington, I think it comes down to what type of race Schaaf tries to run. If she goes out hard and chases Barringer, I think she could get eaten up in the last 2k and the team will suffer. If she races more conservatively, she should be a solid top-5 finisher and the Huskies will be on their way to a repeat championship. For Villanova, they need to have big races from their top two, Reid and Amanda Marino. If they get both near the top ten, they have a chance. If not, they won't be able to make up the difference on the back side because Washington is simply too deep.
Women's Team Predictions
It's either Washington by 20 or Villanova by 2. I think it's going to be Villanova by 2. Yes, I'm a sucker for the underdog. Yes, I realize I could look like a fool in a few days. No, I'm not going to play it safe. In fact, scratch that. Villanova by 3. That's right, I did just go there. In a distant 3rd, I'm picking Florida to eek it out over Colorado, who finishes just in front of Oregon. Florida has a very solid top three, Colorado's racing four against five because they have Barringer, and something tells me Oregon's best race was at Pac-10s. The most exciting thing about Oregon's race will be seeing where Jordan Hasay finishes.
1. Villanova (by 3)
2. Washington
3. Florida
4. Colorado
5. Oregon
Women's Individual Predictions
I've already said what I think about Barringer. I think Kuijken is the clear #2, but Bizzarri will give her a run for it. As I mentioned above, I think Schaaf is going to go out a little above her head and get run down by some of the other top women. Most notably, I think Sheila Reid will place very high for Villanova, giving them that little boost they need to take the team title.
1. Jenny Barringer, Colorado
2. Susan Kuijken, Florida State
3. Angela Bizzarri, Illinois
4. Sheila Reid, Villanova
5. Bridget Franek, Penn State
Top Freshman
Jordan Hasay, Oregon - yes, I almost picked McLaughlin from Colorado, but realistically, Hasay is a top ten runner in the country right now on any given day, and McLaughlin might be on her best day. I think Hasay will finish 9th and be the top Duck. McLaughlin will be top 20, but she certainly won't be the top Buffalo.
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