2009 Men's NCAA XC Preview: By Bryan Green

 By Bryan Green.

(For my women's preview, click here)

All you can ask for as a fan is a competitive race.  Team titles decided by battles from the first man to the fifth.  Some years, though, one team is so stacked that while you hope for a battle, but you don't really expect to see one.  This NCAA Cross Country season, that team was Oklahoma State.  

Don't ask me why they've been ranked #2 in the USTFCCCA polls all year, when they have five studs returning and the 16th place finisher in the NCAAs (Girma Mecheso) transferred to the school.  That team is like the Los Angeles Lakers of the NCAA.  They have a Kobe-esque superstar in German Fernandez, a bunch of studs throughout the lineup, and they picked up an apparently moody star in Mecheso (the Ron Artest connection).  They have to be number one, unless the rest of the coaches think OSU coach Dave Smith is more Del Harris than Phil Jackson.  Personally, I expected them to run roughshod over the NCAA competition, including Oregon.

Sure, Oregon came in ranked #1, but they had lost their top two (Rupp and Kiptoo-Biwott) as well as Andrew Wheating, who would have undoubtedly cracked their top five.  That ranking was a nod to Vin Lananna and last year's crew.  Oregon, needed guys like Matt Centrowitz, AJ Acosta and Kenny Klotz to make the leap and none of them have managed to do so.  It's not a knock against them, as they're still a solid team.  If anything, they're looking more and more like the Phoenix Suns of NCAA Cross Country.  Good team, well-known players, won some good early meets, but not championship caliber.

But outside of Oregon, no other team really crossed my radar.  Not even after the NCAA Pre-Nationals, where Stanford dominated the White Race (Oregon won the Blue Race).  I was surprised, impressed, but not entirely sold.  I wasn't about to jump on either team's bandwagon after one dominant performance.


After the display that Stanford showed at the Pac-10s and then at the West Regionals, however, I'm officially on the Cardinal bandwagon.  And while Oklahoma State may make me look like a fool next Monday, I think Stanford has risen to the challenge and is ready to take home the title.  

Win or lose, Stanford has made amazing gains this year.  Of course, in my mind, Stanford is supposed to be the powerhouse, not the underdog.  They are supposed to be The Machine.  They are supposed to be the team that shows up, crushes you, and goes about the rest of their day discussing topics like exoplanetary systems and referential integrity constraints.  (Coughnerdscough)  Much of this stems from the fact that I was routinely crushed by them when they were at their peak as a program, the late 90s and early 00s.  That was when they were putting together teams that included Olympians (Hauser, Stember, Jennings, Robison, Dobson, Hall) and almost Olympians (Lunn, Balkman, Sage, Riley, Luchini) and winning NCAAs with ridiculous point totals (they scored 24 in 2003).  

But over the past five years they slipped from great to very good, and Oregon supplanted them at the top, not just in terms of performance but in "mystique."  Stanford was no longer THE place where great high school talent wanted to go; that place became Eugene.  Bolstered by its legendary history (Pre, Bowerman), its close ties with Nike (aka a new jersey for every meet), Vin Lananna (the architect of Stanford's previous success), and the many pros who now train in the Eugene/Portland area, "Tracktown USA" had become the de facto place to be.  They had Olympians, NCAA champions, and the biggest stable of young stars.  

Stanford, on the other hand, had only two runners I was familiar with, Chris Derrick and Elliott Heath, the former because he's the second coming of Dathan Ritzenhein and the latter because his older brother went there.  And they entered the year ranked well below the squads of Oregon and Oklahoma State in the coaches' polls.  On paper, they looked like a team that was well positioned to repeat their performance from last year: a distant 3rd place at NCAAs, a solid individual performance from Derrick, and some important experience for the young guys as they targeted 2010. 

But lo and behold, Stanford has morphed into the Cleveland Cavaliers in this smorgasbord of basketball analogies.  Chris Derrick is LeBron, aiming for the title of best in the country, and his supporting cast of unknowns are, like the Cavs, all significantly better than we realize.  They don't all have the flashy PRs of a Matt Centrowitz or a Ryan Vail, but they just might be able to put up better numbers come next Monday.  All the attention will be on Derrick and his attempt to take down Chelanga (Kevin Durant?), yet it will be the Marpole-Bird's and Unterreiner's who will win it or lose it for the Cardinal.  

I hope they do it.  And not because I like Stanford.  On the contrary, they might be the one program I love to hate.  (Once a Bruin, always a Bruin.)  But like a basketball team that plays down to the level of their competition, Oklahoma State has spent the season doing tempo runs.  They've taken it too easy this year for my liking.  At the Midwest Regional meet this weekend, all six finished within a second of each other, but in 9th to 14th place.  Unfortunately, that's like the Lakers beating the Minnesota Timberwolves by 8.  A win is a win, but how hard is it to go all-out more than once per season?

Besides that, hate and respect are two different things, and I respect what Stanford's been able to do this year.  I'm rooting for Stanford because I like cheering for the underdog (even if they're ranked #1).  I like seeing Oregon taken down a notch.  I want to see OSU have to battle for it, and as I wrote earlier, there's just something about Stanford being on top that feels right.  Nostalgia, I suppose.

So welcome back, Stanford, and good luck.  I can't wait to root against you again after Monday.

Men's Team Predictions

Stanford takes it in a close battle with Oklahoma State, with both teams scoring in the 70s.  Oregon's 5th man gets caught in the pack and can't break free, setting them up for an upset by a couple of teams ready to roll, Portland and Iona.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a Wisconsin, Arkansas, or William and Mary battle for a top five spot either.

1. Stanford
2. Oklahoma State
3. Portland
4. Iona
5. Oregon

Men's Individual Predictions

Who will be able to run down Sam Chelanga?  We know how the race is going to go...Chelanga blasts out to an early lead, and the pack sits back until someone makes a run at him.  Derrick was able to run him down at Pre-Nats, but twice in one year?  I'm not counting on that.  I think Sheridan is the real deal and German Fernandez is going to remind everyone that those were indeed tempo runs for him.  McNeill seems to be coming on strong at the end of the year, so he's my pick to round out the top five.

1. Sam Chelanga, Liberty
2. Chris Derrick, Stanford
3. Ryan Sheridan, Iona
4. German Fernandez, Oklahoma State
5. David McNeill, NAU

Top Freshman

Trevor Dunbar, Portland - the smart money would be on Arkansas's Solomon Haile, but why play it safe when all you're risking is your pride and respectability?  No, Dunbar chose Portland to run cross country, and a cross country runner he will be.  I see him taking top 25 with a huge race this week.