Meb's NYC Victory: A Column by Bryan Green

By Bryan Green (@bryangreen1 )

It's about time.  It's about time an American man won a marathon major again.  It's about time a group of Americans represented in force on our home turf.  And it's about time that Meb Keflezighi won himself a laurel wreath, winning yesterday's ING New York City Marathon. (Results)

Five years ago, Meb made the complete transition to the marathon, and promptly went out and won a silver medal at the Athens Olympics.  He had previously finished 2nd at the Olympic Trials, and shortly after Athens he went on to finish 2nd in New York.  He followed that with a couple third place finishes in New York and then Boston, giving him five top three finishes in his first seven marathons.  But no victories.

The ironic thing is, he never ran particularly fast times during this period either.  His best was his 2:09:53 in New York in '04.  I'm sure he figured faster times would come, but during the three years when he was far and away the top marathoner in the country, he didn't chase times.  Instead, he opted to race big US marathons with slower, tougher courses.  I spoke with Meb's coach, Bob Larsen, at the UCLA-USC dual meet this year and he talked about Meb during that period between '04 and '05.

According to Larsen, Meb was in 2:07 shape back in 2004, and Larsen was absolutely convinced that Meb was the best prepared runner entering that Olympic marathon.  He described chaotically navigating the streets of Athens with Vin Lananna, trying to catch Meb along the course.  All the while, Larsen claims to have been completely calm, because he was confident Meb was going to win the gold medal.  That he didn't beat Baldini was as much a surprise for him as Meb's finishing second was to the rest of us.

For the following two years, Meb battled a few small injuries but managed to perform at an exceptionally high level.  And while he spent much of this period fully capable of running faster than his 2:09:53, he never pursued the races that would have given him the best opportunity.  First he would win one, then he'd chase times.  Only he almost didn't get the opportunity, suffering a debilitating stress fracture in his hip in conjunction with the US Olympic Marathon Trials in November of 2007.

Of course, that was Ryan Hall's day, and his rise and Meb's injuries changed everything.  For the next year, Meb struggled to enter a race both healthy and fit, while Hall redefined the standards for American's expectations.  And during this period, the world of marathoning itself changed.  Geb knocked the world record below 2:04, Wanjiru won Beijing in a blistering time, and Rotterdam ushered in a shift in expectations for the world's top marathoners.  Every race was becoming a time trial, and fast times were the mark of greatness.

This changed the context of Meb's performances, too.  After all, how good could Meb have been if Ryan Hall ran more than three and a half minutes faster?  The answer, for many, was that Meb's silver must have been a fluke.  Without a quality time to back up his finishes, it was easy to question whether Meb was that good or marathoning was that weak.  And while Hall got the spotlight in the States (deservedly), Meb was left to recover from injury and slowly work himself back into one of the top marathoners in the new world of marathoning.  

I have to admit, I didn't think he'd ever win a major marathon after his hip injury in 2007.  With the influx of talent at every race, with Hall running so much better than any other American, and with Meb approaching his mid-30s, the odds just seemed entirely too low to put any expectations on it happening.  But having said that, I can't say I found myself that surprised when I saw the results on Sunday morning.  Competitors have a knack for surpassing expectations.

I'm sure I'm not alone in this, but I tend to divide road racers into two categories: Racers and Competitors.  

Racers are very good at running faster than other people.  The hallmark of a great racer is a person who can go out and set a torrid pace from the gun and simply outlast his competition.  They thrive in environments that put everyone at 100% from the beginning, often on flat courses with great weather.  They find rhythms and when things are going well, they really really go well, to the tune of insanely fast times.  None of this is to say they aren't competitive or that they aren't 100% committed to winning.  It's more a distinction in how they go about it.  I tend to put Haile Gebrselassie, Paula Radcliffe, Sammy Wanjiru, and most Kenyans in this category.

Competitors are a slightly different breed.  They are surely capable of running fast--all great runners are--but they thrive in the races that pit them against their competition in a battle of not just splits but strategy.  They can handle anything.  They may not beat a Racer who is having a great day on a fast course, but they will often go toe-to-toe with them in bad weather or on tough courses, and they usually win their race within the race.  These are the athletes who never seem to have a bad race when healthy, who seem to place above what their PRs would predict for them, and whom their competitors worry about most going into a major race.  I generally think of Martin Lel, Zersenay Tadese, Catherine N'dereba, and Irina Mikitenko in this category.

Looking at the ING New York City Marathon field before the race, they could be grouped roughly like so:

Racers: Patrick Makau, James Kwambai, Jaouad Gharib, Hendrick Ramaala, and Ryan Hall

Competitors: Martin Lel (a late DNS), Robert Cheruiyot, Abderrahim Bouramdane, Marilson Gomes dos Santos, Jorge Torres, and Meb Keflezighi

This matters because New York City is a marathon designed for Competitors.  There are no rabbits, it's windy, hilly, and it simply doesn't suit rhythm runners the way London or Berlin or Rotterdam might.  It's designed for the runner who can be patient or can run from the front; who can execute any of multiple race plans and switch between them as necessary; who can both respond to surges and initiate them, study opponents and identify weaknesses, maintain composure and never let oneself get out of position.

If you're putting the same field in the Flora London Marathon, you have to go with the Racers.  You wouldn't want to rule out the Competitors, of course, but odds are the Racers as a group will outperform.  But put the race in New York and the course gives the Competitors the advantage.  I guess this is my way of saying it's a surprise Meb won the race outright, but not so much a surprise that he beat Hall or outlasted some of the other pre-race favorites.

It will be interesting to see what the future holds for Meb.  He says he thinks he's got a few more good years in him, and he's mentioned attacking that London course again next year.  Personally, I hope he chooses to run World Cross Country with Ritz and then Boston later in April.  After all, Meb's a Competitor.  Sure he can lower his PR in London, but how much cooler would it be to see him run for the win in Boston?