The Kenyan Revolution

The Kenyan Revolution

Edward Ovadia

Email: edwardovadia [at] gmail.com

Two huge marathons (Paris and Rotterdam) happened over the weekend, with incredible examples of fast running, and the depth we're seeing in marathons these days.

To be honest: it scares me, at has changed my belief about international marathon running. I used to think that there was only one person, maybe two, who were capable of attacking the world record. And let's be honest, that's what we all thought. They were Geb, Wanjiru, and sometimes Martin Lel. But I can guarantee you that no one has said:

"Hey, that Duncan Kibet dude, he ran 2:07:53 in Milan last year, I reckon he'll crack the world record next time he runs." (Not to take away from Kibet, I watched the video of him on Let's Run and think he's a pretty cool dude! And a gutsy runner, after seeing how he won Rotterdam.)

But that's very nearly what happened. And what's more, he nearly didn't even win the race!

A few years ago the world record was 2:04:55, and anyone running under 2:07 was an impressive effort. If you ran under 2:06, people started thinking of you as the one to beat, the standout runner, the main player. Remember the news of last year's London Marathon? Three runners under 2:05:30, which was unheard of at the time. It was a revelation. And even that breakthrough is now outdated, seeing as a 2:05 time is seen as promising, but incredibly certainly not enough to guarantee you a win. The Paris Marathon had *seven runners* under 2:07, and didn't even make front page news as the winner *only* ran 2:05:47. Which is understandable, given Rotterdam had another three runners come in under the Paris winning time, two of which were under 2:04:30.

This has led me to change my opinion of marathon running, as I mentioned. I think that there's been huge growth in the event in the last few years, a lot of runners - who started to develop in the last five years when Tergat and Geb were inspiring people - are now coming of age, and flooding the elite fields.

I now believe that there are a dozen people capable of breaking the world record at any one time. At least a dozen. The marathon is such a touch-and-go event, everything has to be just so, that it's as much about how the race unfolds, the conditions down to the minutest detail; as it is about the quality of the athlete. Which is a great leveler, because an athlete who you might rank as 95/100, let's say, could easily break the world record held by an athlete of rank 100/100, just because that second athlete never had as perfect a race and conditions as the first athlete.

So my new view is that a lot of people could be breaking the world record at any one time, depending on how the race goes for them. They don't need to be Geb, or Wanjiru, or Kibet now, they could just be an exceptionally good Kenyan runner. And let's face it, there are quite a number of them.

What's scary is that all these great Kenyan (and more and more these days, Ethiopian) runners are now entering marathons. Flooding the fields. And they're all capable of breaking the world record, given a perfect day. So if you get six guys like that in a field, chances are at least one or two will have a very good day and run 2:05. One might have an exceptional day, and run 2:04. And every so often, one will have a near-perfect day and run 2:03. It's a numbers game, now. If you have only one or two athletes capable of breaking the world record entering marathons, then it will almost never happen, because they need to have a perfect run. But if you have ten in every field, then 'Super Runner #1' doesn't need to have a perfect race, because maybe 'Super Runner #2' will, and he'll get the record instead. And if not, then don't worry because there are eight more right behind them. Which is ten times more chances of getting that perfect, world record run.

This is not to take away from Haile and the guys who we consider to be the best of the best. Haile has always been the first to say that the conditions and the way the race unfolds plays a huge part in a marathon. And he's lucky to have had some pretty good runs. But as more and more quality athletes keep entering fast marathons, all it takes is one, out of an every growing pool, to have that special, perfect run; and they'll take the record. The flood gates are officially open.

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