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2010 US Distance Running Trade Values
By Bryan Green
My 2009 US Distance Running Trade Values mega-column last year was probably my most popular article, and it sparked a lot of debate. It had a few gaffes, a few athletes misranked, and I completely missed a few emerging stars (but seriously, did anyone see Maggie Vessey coming?). Still, for all its problems, I got one thing right, and that was ranking Jenny Barringer #1. It was even better to hear that she read it.
For 2010, I've got another year of perspective under my belt, another year of results to consider, and of course, another crop of young stars to rank. Special thanks to Tilastopaja (where all the stats were gathered) and Flotrack and RunnerSpace, who posted footage of races I otherwise never would have seen.
The ranking criteria will remain the same (to the right). Ultimately, we're asking one question: if you had to stake your reputation on coaching one athlete for the rest of their career, who would you choose?
Quick Stats
Before we get started, here are some quick stats. I thought I'd give you an overview of who didn't make it first. There were 16 athletes from last year's list who didn't make it. Most notable were graduating seniors Sarah Bowman (20) and Jacob Hernandez (22), young stars Christine Babcock (32), Luke Puskedra (35) and Laurynne Chetelat (36), and high school half-milers Laura Roesler (45) and Elijah Greer (47).
Of the 50 athletes selected, 27 were male and 23 female. There were 32 pros, 16 collegiates, and 2 high schoolers. I also have 23 800m/milers, 12 steeple/5000m runners, and 15 10000m/marathoners. For the purposes of this last classification I rounded down, meaning German Fernandez and Jordan Hasay are considered milers, even though I think they may ultimately be 5000m runners.
Who Didn't Make The Cut? (last year's ranking in parentheses)
A few comments on the most notable exclusions.
800m: Jacob Hernandez (22), Elijah Greer (47), Christian Smith, Ryan Brown, Duane Solomon, Tyler Mulder, Tevan Everett, Alice Schmidt (39), Laura Roesler (45), Heather Dorniden, Hazel Clark, Katie Waits, Geena Gall, LaTavia Thomas, Laura Hermanson
Same story as last year. There are only a few guys who really stand out, but there are a ton of women battling for a select few spots. And with most 800m runners being "one trick ponies", you have to be a standout to be more valuable than most other runners.
1500m: Rob Myers (38), Garrett Heath, Will Leer, David Torrence, Matt Scherer, Stephen Pifer, Michael Coe, Craig Miller, Jeff See, Sarah Bowman (20), Treniere Moser (24), Brie Felnagle (25), Christine Babcock (32), Erin Donohue (37), Sara Hall, Shayne Culpepper, Tiffany McWilliams, Lauren Centrowitz, Maggie Infeld, Katie Follett, Emily Infeld, Jessica Pixler
There are just too many studs running these distances right now for most of these athletes to rank. On the women's side, you have to be sniffing 4-flat just to have a chance to make a US team, and 4:10 to win an NCAA title. For the men, there are only three or four contenders at each level, leaving a lot of fast guys off the list.
Steeplechase: Billy Nelson, Dan Huling, Ben Bruce, Kyle Perry, Steve Slattery, Tom Kloos, Jake Morse, Kyle Alcorn, Brian Olinger, Jacques Sallberg, Lindsey Anderson, Delilah DiCrescenzo, Lisa Galaviz, Nicole Bush, Lindsay Allen
US women's steeple looks to be dominated by Barringer for the next decade. On the men's side, there aren't many really dynamic runners in the event, at least not on the world stage. I'm still waiting for someone with top-end 1500m/5000m ability to take up the event, but until then, there won't be many steeplers in the rankings.
5000m: Luke Puskedra (35), Bolota Asmerom, Ian Dobson, Bobby Curtis, Josh McDougal, Jonathan Riley, Ryan Vail, Andrew Bumbalough, Brandon Bethke, Elliott Heath, Hassan Mead, Laurynne Chetelat (36), Emily Brown (41), Tasmin Fanning (43), Nicole Blood (44), Jen Rhines (50), Lauren Fleshman, Sara Slattery, Amy Mortimer, Julie Culley, Rebecca Donaghue, Frances Koons, Neely Spence, Megan Goethals, Aisling Cuffe, Emily Sisson
Last year there were a number of top collegians I put on the list who no longer make the cut. Chetelat is the most likely to rejoin it, in my opinion, but she's been injured and sitting out due to a transfer, so no idea when we'll see her again. With Lagat moving up to 5000m, it gets that much tougher for the rest of the US men.
10000m: Jorge Torres, Ed Moran, James Carney, Scott Bauhs, Patrick Smyth, Josh Rohatinsky, Trevor Dunbar, Katie McGregor, Lindsey Scherf, Arianna Lambie, Amy Hastings
At the elite level, this event is dominated by a few athletes with a large gap between them. Many of the athletes above can qualify for World Cross teams, but will be hard pressed to qualify for anything on the track.
Half & Marathon: Brian Sell, Jason Lehmkuhle, Josh Cox, Fernando Cabada, Justin Young, Fasil Bizuneh, Adam Goucher, Antonio Vega, Nick Arciniaga, Magdalena Lewy-Boulet, Kate O'Neill, Blake Russell, Colleen De Reuck
More and more people are moving up to this distance in the US, as this is where the money's at. Anything's possible in these events, but the spoils go to the best of the best, and nobody on this list has shown they're ready to be classified as such yet (or in some cases, any more).
Let's move on to the rankings!
Intro -- 26-50 -- 11-25 -- Top 10 -- Next Page
My 2009 US Distance Running Trade Values mega-column last year was probably my most popular article, and it sparked a lot of debate. It had a few gaffes, a few athletes misranked, and I completely missed a few emerging stars (but seriously, did anyone see Maggie Vessey coming?). Still, for all its problems, I got one thing right, and that was ranking Jenny Barringer #1. It was even better to hear that she read it.
| For a detailed overview, click here. 1. Legacy is primary. Legacy is created by: A. championships (IAAF, US, NCAA, HS) B. records (world, US, NCAA, US JR, HS) C. qualifying for national teams D. consistently performing at top of US 2. This year has priority, but insanely great future projections definitely matter. 3. Age matters. Do you want Meb (36) or Hall (28)? Kara Goucher (30) or Jenny Barringer (23)? 4. Money matters. Athletes roughly grouped into the following categories based on money earned through running only: A. Superstar ($75k+) B. Prospect (student and future superstar) C. Tour Pro (20k-75k) D. Up and Comer (student, future tour pro) E. Dreamer (0-20k) F. Dan Wilson 5. Gender does not matter. Would you rather have Angela Bizzarri or Dorian Ulrey? Fair question. 6. Only distance running. 800m to marathon. 7. Pretend the following rule was passed: Any runner can be traded at this moment without affecting college/high school eligibility, but runners would be bound by college/high school rules in terms of ability to make money. You will coach them throughout whatever levels they advance to. So, is the legacy a high school/collegiate athlete could set in school worth more than money being made by a pro today? |
The ranking criteria will remain the same (to the right). Ultimately, we're asking one question: if you had to stake your reputation on coaching one athlete for the rest of their career, who would you choose?
Quick Stats
Before we get started, here are some quick stats. I thought I'd give you an overview of who didn't make it first. There were 16 athletes from last year's list who didn't make it. Most notable were graduating seniors Sarah Bowman (20) and Jacob Hernandez (22), young stars Christine Babcock (32), Luke Puskedra (35) and Laurynne Chetelat (36), and high school half-milers Laura Roesler (45) and Elijah Greer (47).
Of the 50 athletes selected, 27 were male and 23 female. There were 32 pros, 16 collegiates, and 2 high schoolers. I also have 23 800m/milers, 12 steeple/5000m runners, and 15 10000m/marathoners. For the purposes of this last classification I rounded down, meaning German Fernandez and Jordan Hasay are considered milers, even though I think they may ultimately be 5000m runners.
Who Didn't Make The Cut? (last year's ranking in parentheses)
A few comments on the most notable exclusions.
800m: Jacob Hernandez (22), Elijah Greer (47), Christian Smith, Ryan Brown, Duane Solomon, Tyler Mulder, Tevan Everett, Alice Schmidt (39), Laura Roesler (45), Heather Dorniden, Hazel Clark, Katie Waits, Geena Gall, LaTavia Thomas, Laura Hermanson
Same story as last year. There are only a few guys who really stand out, but there are a ton of women battling for a select few spots. And with most 800m runners being "one trick ponies", you have to be a standout to be more valuable than most other runners.
.jpg) Will Leer's mustache earned him extra points, but not enough to crack the top 50. |
There are just too many studs running these distances right now for most of these athletes to rank. On the women's side, you have to be sniffing 4-flat just to have a chance to make a US team, and 4:10 to win an NCAA title. For the men, there are only three or four contenders at each level, leaving a lot of fast guys off the list.
Steeplechase: Billy Nelson, Dan Huling, Ben Bruce, Kyle Perry, Steve Slattery, Tom Kloos, Jake Morse, Kyle Alcorn, Brian Olinger, Jacques Sallberg, Lindsey Anderson, Delilah DiCrescenzo, Lisa Galaviz, Nicole Bush, Lindsay Allen
US women's steeple looks to be dominated by Barringer for the next decade. On the men's side, there aren't many really dynamic runners in the event, at least not on the world stage. I'm still waiting for someone with top-end 1500m/5000m ability to take up the event, but until then, there won't be many steeplers in the rankings.
5000m: Luke Puskedra (35), Bolota Asmerom, Ian Dobson, Bobby Curtis, Josh McDougal, Jonathan Riley, Ryan Vail, Andrew Bumbalough, Brandon Bethke, Elliott Heath, Hassan Mead, Laurynne Chetelat (36), Emily Brown (41), Tasmin Fanning (43), Nicole Blood (44), Jen Rhines (50), Lauren Fleshman, Sara Slattery, Amy Mortimer, Julie Culley, Rebecca Donaghue, Frances Koons, Neely Spence, Megan Goethals, Aisling Cuffe, Emily Sisson
Last year there were a number of top collegians I put on the list who no longer make the cut. Chetelat is the most likely to rejoin it, in my opinion, but she's been injured and sitting out due to a transfer, so no idea when we'll see her again. With Lagat moving up to 5000m, it gets that much tougher for the rest of the US men.
10000m: Jorge Torres, Ed Moran, James Carney, Scott Bauhs, Patrick Smyth, Josh Rohatinsky, Trevor Dunbar, Katie McGregor, Lindsey Scherf, Arianna Lambie, Amy Hastings
At the elite level, this event is dominated by a few athletes with a large gap between them. Many of the athletes above can qualify for World Cross teams, but will be hard pressed to qualify for anything on the track.
Half & Marathon: Brian Sell, Jason Lehmkuhle, Josh Cox, Fernando Cabada, Justin Young, Fasil Bizuneh, Adam Goucher, Antonio Vega, Nick Arciniaga, Magdalena Lewy-Boulet, Kate O'Neill, Blake Russell, Colleen De Reuck
More and more people are moving up to this distance in the US, as this is where the money's at. Anything's possible in these events, but the spoils go to the best of the best, and nobody on this list has shown they're ready to be classified as such yet (or in some cases, any more).
Let's move on to the rankings!
Intro -- 26-50 -- 11-25 -- Top 10 -- Next Page
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