The New Balance Xmas Cracker 5k - Men’s Preview:

  Xmas Cracker 5km

By Daniel Wallis

For a country as small as New Zealand, its amazing how rarely the top domestic athletes organise to consistently race each other for quality competition -- with the Northerners usually sticking to their Island, and the Southerners to theirs. Aside from the National Championships, there is usually one meet that athletes make a concerted effort to get too, in good shape. For recent history it has been the Capital Classic in Wellington, where the 3000m has been the blue-ribbon event, producing consistently fast times across the board. However, the shift is now moving south – to the New Balance x-mas cracker 5000m.

December 19^th may be hardly the ideal time to be in peak shape, with Nationals (except the 10000m) not until March -- yet for most it will be the only real chance to post a PB over 5km, and likely the only chance all year that multiple kiwis dip under 14.10. However, the early date will suit those using the meet as over distance, as well as a solid tune up for the National 10000m a little over two weeks later, as well as the World Cross Trial at the end of January.

Over the past three years the meet has seen a consistent decline in the quality of the winning times, slowing at a rate of around 10 seconds per year since 2006. That year Max Smith took out the race in 14.03, followed in 2007 by Luke Hurring in 14.13, and last years’ winner Andrew Davidson in 14.22.

This year however looks to be a trend breaker, with several athletes coming off successful cross and road seasons lining up. Race organiser Craig Motley of Canterbury University has made it clear that the pace will be on for sub -14.00 race, while he believes there will be at least 6 runners under 14.30, with hopefully a few juniors there or there about.  

With the International Track Meet in Christchurch placing 14.15 as the standard for entry into the 5km, this could be one of the few chances athletes have to break that barrier and ensure that there is a decent showing of kiwis to support at the ITM (Ed: Christchurch International Track Meet).

The Top 3 contenders:

This year there are three athletes that stand above the rest. All have impressive resumes over cross-country and have personal bests over 3000m of 8.05 or faster – making for what could potentially be one of the best 5000m races in New Zealand in the last couple of years.  

Andrew Davidson:

Last year was a breakthrough season on the track for Dr. Davidson, posting an impressive 3000m of 8.05 at the International Track Meet in Christchurch. This winter was nothing short of absolute dominance over cross for Davidson, taking the treble of North Island, South Island, and National Championship crowns. Although the road season was much quieter for the Cantabrian -- managing only 6^th in the NZ Road Champs, his class is undeniable and he rarely shows up out of shape. While he does not top the fastest times list, he tops the form list and is the clear favourite for this one.

Kim Hogarth:

In 2006 Kim Hogarth was running for Western State College in Colorado, where he ran personal bests of 13.44 for the 5km and 8.29 for the steeple. Although Hogarth has yet to get back to the sort of times that he was posting in the States, he has had a tremendous domestic season. This year Hogarth won 5 National titles: 3000m, 5000m, Steeple, Half-Marathon, and 10km Road – as well as his 3^rd place at the National Cross-Country Champs. The guy is probably one of the toughest racers in the country and has plenty of experience over the 5000m. He will push Davidson all the way, and unless he has a shocker - will be a guaranteed a podium spot.

Rees Buck:

Rees Buck is currently one of New Zealand’s best and most experienced distance runners. Buck has been national champion over multiple distances, including a three year streak from 2003-2005 when he won the 3000m title. Buck is also a 4-time NZ representative at the World Cross Champs, most recently at Edinburgh in 2008. With PBs from 800m-5km of 1.49, 3.41,13.49 and 29.12 for 10km; recorded at the 2007 Zatopek Classic where he was 3^rd place -- Buck has the gears to be a threat at any stage of the race, with his kick still very much in tact at the ripe age of 32. However, with the World Cross Trial at the end of January his primary focus, Buck may not be the threat now that he will be then – but he remains one of the favourites for a Top 3 finish. If he’s there with a lap to go, he’ll be hard to beat.

Best of the Rest:

Richy Olsen:

Although not his specialty distance, Olsen is a 4.00 miler and has had a string of solid performances over 10km on the road. Even if can’t match the strength that Davidson, Buck or Hogarth bring to the table – he will be a massive threat off of a slower pace and will surely shatter his PB of 14.34 if he can hold it together in the latter parts of the race.

Brett Tingay:

Always a consistent performer on the domestic scene, Brett Tingay is coming off a 3^rd place finish at the NZ 10km Road Champs and a 1:07:40 half-marathon in Southland last month. His current strength is impressive, especially when you consider that last season he ran 3.44 for the 1500m. Dangerous off any pace, Tingay is definitely an outside chance for a medal.

The Dark Horse:

Stefan Smith:

Labelled as one of the breakthrough athletes over the NZ cross-country season this year, the young Wellingtonian has the tools to be a real threat over anything from the 800 to the 10km. Although targeting the NZ Cross Trial and a spot on the Team to Poland next year -- Smith will be a legitimate danger for the more experienced athletes in the field, as well as to Christchurch’s 17 year old girls.

Daniel Wallis for The Runner’s Tribe