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We've finally made it to the Top 10.  Four people from last year's top 10 didn't make the cut, so let's see who took their places.  Athlete name, last year's rank (and PRs in parentheses).

Bernard Lagat is still the best in the US...but for how much longer?

10.  Bernard Lagat, 6 (800m 1:46.00 - 1500m 3:26.34 - Mile 3:47.28 - 3000m 7:32.43AR - 5000m 12:59.22)

Yes, I lowered his ranking even though he just won a World Indoor title.  I'm afraid of his age.  It doesn't take much to derail a 36 year old, even one as great as Lagat.  His win at World Indoors shows he's still got it compared to most of the world, but with his announced focus on the 5000m, I'm not sure he's the favorite to win any more major outdoor titles.  Not if Bekele's running in them, anyway.

Despite Ritz and Teg having faster PR's over 5000m, Lagat is the clear favorite to win any head-to-head race because of his kick.  You know what would be ironic?  What if Lagat goes out and runs something like 12:53, and Teg goes out the next week and runs 12:55?  That would be hilarious.  Anyway, for the next year or two Lagat is still top dog in the US, but not for much longer than that.

9.  Dathan Ritzenhein, 17 (3000m 7:39.03 - Two Miles 8:11.74 - 5000m 12:56.27AR - 10000m 27:22.28 - Half 60:00 - Marathon 2:10:00)
8.  Galen Rupp, 2 (800m 1:49.87 - 1500m 3:39.14 - Mile 3:56.22 - 3000m 7:44.69 - 5000m 13:14.21 - 10000m 27:33.48)

These two training partners are at different stages in their careers, but their goals are pretty similar (as are their chances of achieving them).  Both have their sights set on Meb's 10000m AR, and it almost looks like the favorite to get it will be the first guy to go for it. 

Each had a phenomenal 2009, with Ritz setting the 5000m AR, finishing 6th in the Berlin 10000m (in a PR), and getting a bronze at the World Half Marathon Champs.  All he has to prove is that he can master the full marathon distance.  If he does, he'll have a resume that's pretty hard to beat.

Rupp absolutely destroyed the collegiate ranks last year, won the USA 10000m title easily (over Ritz), then finished 8th in Berlin.  He's started off the year with a PR at 5000m and a 5th place finish in the 3000m at the World Indoor Champs.  I would be shocked if neither of these two broke Meb's 10000m record this year, and I give the slight nod to Rupp, who I think might have been able to do it last year had he gotten in the right race in June.

2009 Top Ten (2010 rank)

10. Anna Pierce (5) 9. Alan Webb (16) 8. Nick Symmonds (13)  7. Shannon Rowbury (6) 6. Bernard Lagat (10) 5. Ryan Hall (11) 4. Kara Goucher (12) 3. Shalane Flanagan (3) 2. Galen Rupp (8) 1. Jenny Barringer (1) Watch Ryan Hall burn me by winning Boston now that I've bumped him from the top 10.  Trust me, though, I'll be ecstatic if he does. The next most likely person to burn me on this ranking? Nick Symmonds, because anyone can win a major 800m.  The event is just that fluky.  With that said, there are no global championships this year and by 2011, I think we may be talking just as much about Wheating winning a major 800m medal as Symmonds.

7.  German Fernandez, 11 (1500m 3:39.00 - Mile 3:55.02 - 3000m 7:47.97 - 5000m 13:25.46)

If there's one runner who can equal Alan Webb for an awe inspiring all-or-nothing quality to his performances, it's German Fernandez.  When he's on, he's a revelation.  He doesn't just win, but he dictates the race and wins on his own terms.  Last year he ran a solo 3:55.02 to set an NCAA record, easily won USA JR XC over Derrick, won the NCAA Outdoor 1500m despite leading the entire race, and then set the AJR for 5000m in finishing 5th at the USA Outdoor meet.  He just makes it all look so easy.

Except when he doesn't.  He's had his share of troubles, injuries and an iron deficiency, that have kept him from training consistently and running up to his potential.  He DNF'd NCAA XC his freshman year, missed time with a stress reaction in track, struggled through XC last year and then turned his ankle at the Big 12 Champs in indoor track.  His future seems so bright yet so unpredictable.

There are a couple things that have to be said, however.  We haven't seen a 1500m/5000m talent like him in a long time, maybe ever.  But he's still not a favorite to win either race at the NCAA level, despite his pulling off the 1500m victory last year.  Will he win more NCAA titles?  Surely.  But he's less of a lock than the other collegiates ahead of him.

6.  Shannon Rowbury, 7 (800m 2:00.94 - 1500m 4:00.33 - Mile 4:20.34 - 3000m 8:47.18 - 5000m 15:12.95)
5.  Anna Pierce, 10 (800m 1:58.80 - 1500m 3:59.38 - 3000m 8:58.07 - Steeple 9:22.76 - 5000m 15:53.36)

For various reasons I'm always a little bearish about Shannon Rowbury.  Maybe I'm just too focused on PRs and not enough on racing instincts, because I haven't really come to terms with the fact that she is the best 1500m runner in the US.  I had her ranked all over the place as I started putting this list together, and finally settled on 6th because of her bronze in Berlin last year.

One spot ahead of her is Pierce.  Not only did she finish 4th at World Indoors this year, but she didn't lose a single race over 800m last year, she had the 10th fastest time in the world for 800m and the 4th fastest over 1500m, and she still is the nation's #2 steepler (should she ever go back to it).  There aren't enough good things to say about her.

Once again, Wheating was .01 away from an NCAA title.

4.  Andrew Wheating, 12 (800m 1:45.03 - 1500m 3:38.60 - Mile 3:58.16)

I think Andrew Wheating's NCAA Indoor meet was instructive as to where he stands in the US today.  He anchored his DMR team to a victory, outkicking a 1:48/3:35 guy and a host of other top milers.  He then lost the 800m by .01 seconds because he A) always races from the back and has only one strategy and B) didn't go all out because he thought he had it won.  

What we learned is that Wheating is the best overall middle-distance runner in the NCAA, but he's still inexperienced.  He's got the killer instinct, but only when he's running from behind.  This will change though.  He learned a great lesson in Fayetteville.  You can bet Robby Andrews won't be sneaking up on him again, and you can bet that 1:44 is only a few outdoor races away.  He's still the major favorite to win NCAA Outdoors, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 1:44/3:35 either.  I think we're about to see the "Summer of Wheating".  Prepare to be amazed.

3.  Shalane Flanagan, 3 (1500m 4:05.86 - 3000m 8:33.35iAR - 5000m 14:44.80AR - 10000m 30:22.22 - Half 69:41)

Last year Flanagan struggled.  Expectations were high following her 10000m bronze in Beijing, but she finished a disappointing 2nd at the USA Outdoors and 14th in Berlin.  There was speculation as to whether it was a mistake to change coaches, and she kind of disappeared after the World Champs, ending her season early.

She came back strong this winter by running a 69:41 debut half marathon--6th all-time by an American--in what appeared to be a tempo effort.  She then destroyed a very strong field at USA XC and finished 12th at World XC.  She looks poised for a great summer, but what's most interesting is her planned marathon debut.  She's got the pedigree and track times to warrant very high expectations and if she can follow in Kastor's footsteps, she may be the next great American marathoner.

2.  Lisa Koll, 16 (Mile 4:41.37 - 3000m 8:56.09 - 5000m 15:29.65 - 10000m 31:18.07)

At the NCAA Indoor meet, Lisa Koll was outkicked in the last lap of the 3000m by Angela Bizzarri.  So why is she 14 spots higher?  Because she just rewrote the record books in the NCAA 10000m.

Two years ago, Koll ran 32:11.  She did that with a 5k PR in the 15:50s.  Last Friday she ran 31:18.07, breaking Kipyego's record by 7 seconds and putting her to number 6 on the all-time US performers list.  The time is only half the story though.  I was at this race and watched it with TnF News's Sieg Lindstrom.  We marveled at how Koll went out in 15:52--leading every lap from the gun-- and then rolled off a string of 74.2's that were simply mechanical.  Her 15:26 last 5k was faster than her PB and faster than any current collegiate runner has ever run in an open 5000 meters.  And she never looked like she was overextended.

She's also arriving at the perfect time to be a 10k runner.  Flanagan, Goucher and Begley are all equal to or stronger than her, but they are all starting to pursue careers on the roads.  For the next few years, the door is open to win a number of US titles in the 5 and 10.

As for this year, there's nobody in the NCAA who can run with her in the 10000m.  And if she doubles at NCAA Outdoors?  Bizzarri outkicked her to deny her the 5k/3k double indoors, but the 10/5 is more in her wheelhouse.  Honestly, I'm not sure I'd bet on Bizzarri, even if she's running fresh.

With Pierce no longer breathing down her back, Barringer owns the steeple.

1.  Jenny Barringer, 1 (800m 2:02.56 - 1500m 3:59.90 - 3000m 8:42.03 - Steeple 9:12.50 - 5000m 15:01.70)

Here's the thing.  Even without collegiate eligibility, you have to put Barringer in the top spot.  She's the AR holder for the steeplechase, and Pierce, her only real competition, is busy kicking arse in the middle distances.  She's ranked 8th all-time in the world for the steeple, and her PR's indicate that she's capable of running close to the world record in the event.  If she decides to enter other events, she's one of the top milers or 5000m runners in the country as well.

Right now she's the only US runner with a legit shot at a world record.  She's as good a bet as anyone to win a world title or medal.  She's got practically no competition in the steeple, and she's got the range to possibly win titles both up and down from her event.  She's young.  She's a workhorse.  She's the complete package.  She's (still) the most valuable runner in the US today.

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By Bryan Green

It's been an interesting first couple weeks in the new year.  Deena Kastor came back with a sub-70 half marathon in Arizona, while Ryan Hall got crushed by Simon Bairu on the same course, running only 64 and change.  There was an announcement that the state of Oregon was considering eliminating team qualifying for state meet cross country.  (Say what?!  Dyestat covered the news here.)  Indoor track kicked off with the New Balance Indoor meet and Haile Gebrselassie went for another world record at the Dubai Marathon but failed because he slept on his stomach.  (Seriously, get that man a Snoogle already!)

We were also treated to two fine debuts one week ago, with Shalane Flanagan running her much anticipated first half-marathon and Brett Gotcher's surprisingly fast debut for the full marathon.  (We should also mention the solid debuts by Brent Vaughn and Tim Nelson in the half marathon, who ran 62:04 and 62:11, respectively.)

Shalane won her race in a course record 1:09:41, which was good enough to put her 6th on the US all-time list for the distance.  She controlled the race from the beginning and there was little doubt as to the final outcome.  As she said after the race, "Yeah, I was thinking, or guessing I would run 1:10, and that would be very comfortable for me. To dip under 1:10, I think, is a solid performance."

Gotcher finished 7th in a field of solid foreigners, running a surprise 2:10:36.  He ran much of the race alone, and was on pace for sub-2:10 until the final two miles.  Still, his time is good enough for the 4th fastest debut marathon by an American and it puts him 27th on the US all-time list.  It's also just six seconds slower than Frank Shorter's personal best!

As he says in this interview, however, he's not entirely satisfied with the time: "Late in the race, I thought I was going to run a lot faster. Even though I am really happy and excited with my time, there is still a bittersweet feeling that I can go out and run 2:09 or maybe even under 2:09 on a really amazing day." 

So we have two performances, both slower than what the athletes felt they were capable of, and yet because they were debuts, they've gathered quite a lot of attention.  What is it about debuts that make us ooh and ahh over them?  After all, doesn't every athlete have at least 5 or 10 debuts in their career?

The fact is, we're only really concerned with two types of debuts: the Superstar Debut and the Overachiever Debut.  The Superstar Debut matters because the athlete has already proven herself over the course of her career at other distances, and built up an expectation of excellence.  Most debuts we remember are Superstar Debuts.  They are recognized by their publicly announced date, fervent debate as to what to expect, and generally, a slight feeling of letdown after the fact.  Flanagan's debut in Houston is a great example of this.

The Overachiever Debut comes about a different way.  The athlete is usually known or recognized in a general sense, but does not have high expectations placed on his debut performance going into it.  He then goes out and runs a time nobody thought possible.  It's not the case that he has actually overachieved, of course, as that would imply he performed better than he was actually capable and that's impossible.  But the fact that he surpassed expectations so greatly makes his debut something to celebrate.  Brett Gotcher's marathon provides us with a fantastic example of this.

Of course, there is also the extremely rare Superstar Overachiever Debut, in which everyone excitedly awaits the performance and yet the athlete still manages to exceed expectations.  A couple examples of this include Ryan Hall's 59:43 AR half marathon debut and Alan Webb's 27:34 10k debut in which he outkicked Dathan Ritzenhein.  I'd probably include German Fernandez's 3:56.5 indoor mile debut as well.  These performances were so stunning that they completely shifted expectations of what we thought the athlete was capable of in the future.  Many of us were hoping to see this from Shalane, but she opted to play it safe (hence the slight feeling of letdown).

For fun, I put together my Top 10 US Debuts of the past decade.  These were the races that made me sit up and say, "Wow".

What makes these debuts so fun, of course, is that they are pretty rare.  There are very few opportunities for big debuts on the track, since everyone usually enters their first 5k or 10k in a low-key meet.  It's incredibly rare for a top athlete like Leonel Manzano to go his entire career never having run a 5k, or Matt Tegenkamp never succumbing to the 10k's siren call.  (Will they ever move up?)  We pretty much have to settle for college freshmen going for it at Stanford, so here's to hoping Jordan Hasay does something special this year.

The rest of the hullabaloo, however, is largely based on a misconception, I believe.  There's a general assumption that no matter how fast an athlete runs in their debut, they'll run significantly faster once they've got a few races under their belts.  A middle distance runner stepping up to 10k isn't supposed to nail it on his first try, and neither is a track athlete stepping up to the half or the full marathon.  As such, a blazing fast debut is supposed to signify a bright future, one filled with further improvement.

But in the big picture, spectacular debuts ultimately mean very little.  A letsrun reader, malmo, posted the list of top US marathon debuts on a forum thread and it's amazing what it shows.  Of the 39 he lists, 20 of them also serve as the individual's personal best.  Half of the fastest debutantes never improved!  That number is really surprising on the face of it.  It seems to go against the common belief about debuts, especially at distances like the full marathon.

I don't have the data for the 10k or half marathon, but I would be interested to see what it says.  I'm pretty sure Ryan Hall's 28:07 10k PR was run in his debut, and Anthony Famiglietti's 27:37 10k debut is still his PR.  Of course, neither of these guys have focused on the 10k since then, so we have to be careful in reading too much into this.  But on a lesser note, it still took five years before Dathan Ritzenhein was able to lower his 27:38.5 debut 10k time by more than four seconds.  I know I expected much more much sooner, simply because it was his debut.

I think the most we can say is big improvement after a fast debut simply isn't a given.  Not only does one have to continue to step up their training, they have to now perform with the weight of increased expectations.  Not everybody can live up to it and not everybody is willing to dedicate themselves to the distance long enough to do it.  Here's to hoping that Shalane and Brett are able to do so.

Images: Photorun.net

Ezekiel Kemboi

"First of all, I had a very good race. Berlin has to be a special place, because I won silver in Paris, silver in Helsinki, silver in Osaka, and this year gold. I was tired of silver!"

[The hair style?]

"A friend of mine asked what I want to prepare for today, if I should paint my nails. But then we cut the hair and on the back side we shaved out the sign of Nike - my sponsor. Tomorrow I go back to Kenya to prepare for Zurich and there I'll shave my head again."

There is no American in steeple, there are sprinters in Jamaica. In Kenya you cannot do long jump, but if a Jamaican comes to steeple he would be number 1000 in the world and we were number 1000 in sprints.

It's what makes this stadium unique and so different to the others that makes it special. The history, but also the aesthetics make it an inspiring place to be, as an athlete or as a spectator.

Richard Mateelong

It was very fast, very tough. I won bronze before and now I did a step ahead to silver. I'm very happy - silver and personal best. My friend has to be ready to defend!

[Why the steeple?]

It is famous in Kenya and I saw this interesting race and I knew this is what I wanted to do.

Bouabdellah Tahri

I was close to silver. My focus was to finish in the top three. I wanted to run the first laps relaxed. The last round was very hard. I finished with a European record. It is a great day for me.

I worked a lot, advanced my technique at the obstacle [Tahri jumps higher over the steeples than others]. But overall I'm really happy. The last hurdle was very difficult and I was tired.



 

 

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'Hills are speedword in disguise '
Frank Shorter

Has Sammy Wanjiru changed the conventional template for running a championship marathon?

The question must be asked after yesterday's world championship marathon emulated Wanjiru's audacious run to Olympic gold last year in Beijing with Abel Kirui and his Kenyan teammates taking control of the race at breakneck speed from start to finish.

Normally I don't like to talk about the people who are not at a championships, especially marathoners who opt for the big city, big money marathons over testing themselves against the world's best. But Steve Moneghetti declared Wanjiru's the greatest marathon run ever last August and now, 12 months later, Kirui has followed the same pattern to a world championships gold medal.

Statistically, the case is compelling. Kirui's winning time yesterday _ two hours six minutes 54 seconds _ is the second fastest men's championships time ever. The fastest is Wanjiru's 2:06:32 on the hot streets of Beijing.

Kirui broke the previous championship record set by Jaouad Gharib in Paris in 2003 by almost two minutes. Behind Kirui, three others broke two hours nine minutes _ silver medallist Emannuel Mutai of Kenya, bronze medallist Tsegay Kebede of Ethiopia and Robert Cheruiyot of Kenya. Six men _ two more than yesterday _ ran sub-2:10 in Paris 2003, but only two, Gharib and silver medallist Julio Rey of Spain, wen under 2:09.

Kirui, Mutai and Cheruiyout, helped by a second Ethiopian, Deriba Merga, carried the lion's share of the pacing load in Berlin. Merga was also a central figure for most of the Olympic marathon. How he must hate his teammate Kebede. In Beijing he passed Merga on the track to grab the bronze; here he came through him in the last 5k, though Merga was in such a bad way by then that he failed to finish.

Merga showed ahead at the first two 5k splits, but from then on it was either Kirui or Mutai, and from 30k on, Kirui.

It is exciting to think that two championships in a row have now brought a men's race run in exhilarating manner. No doubt we will see a return to conservatism sometime in the future, but for the moment let's just sit back and relish this mad, mad new world order.

Scott Westcott got burned following the early pace, but he helped Martin Dent, Andrew Letherby and Mark Tucker to pack together through 30k as Australia finished eighth of 15 teams in the marathon World Cup. With top 8s hard as ever to come by at the world champs, let's not overlook this one.

Like Abel Kirui, Steve Hooker was committed to a course of action which would lead either to death, or to glory. Like Kirui, his boldness was rewarded with a gold medal in the pole vault.

Leading in to Berlin, Hooker's ambition was to secure a world championships medal to go with his Olympic gold. But last Monday week, he suffered a grade one strain to a groin muscle. Then commenced a race against time to get fit.

It looked all over when Hooker qualified with one jump at 5.65 on Thursday. He crashed to the bag and could barely walk after that effort. The soreness settled, and he embarked on an audacious strategy of taking only one jump in the final in the hope that would suffice for a medal.

Hooker came in at 5.85. He all but cleared the height, just tickling the bar off as he went over. He was shattered but, to his surprise, found enough energy to take one more at the next height of 5.90. to a mighty roar, he cleared it and it stood up for gold.

Two jumps for a world championships gold medal. It has been done only once before by _ guess who? _ Sergey Bubka, in Rome in 1987.

ends


 

Len Johnson was The Melbourne Age athletics writer for over 20 years, covering five Olympics, 10 world championships and five Commonwealth Games. He is the author of The Landy Era, From Nowhere to the Top of the World, and a former national class distance runner (2.19.32 marathon) who trained with Chris Wardlaw and Robert de Castella.