By Bryan Green

Last year when I wrote my 2009 NCAA Indoor Preview, I highlighted some of the records that went down during the indoor season and then wrote the following paragraph:

Then there's the quantity of fast times being run.  I took a look at the qualifying times for all events and saw an amazing statistic.  In field events, there were an average of 5.7 automatic qualifiers per event.  In sprints, there were only 4.0 autos, on average.  In the distance events, however, there were on average 9.2 auto qualifying marks per event, with an amazing 27 auto marks in the DMRs (which is the best indication for overall middle-distance strength).  And another 24 marks were within one second of the qualifiers.  And I didn't count anyone not entered in a race, like Fernandez and Rupp in the mile.  This is very much the result of so many races being run at the University of Washington and Notre Dame, which have large, fast tracks beneficial to distance runners.  But it's also likely the result of a general rise in the quality of distance running in the NCAA.

This year was even more impressive.  Field events saw an average of 7.1 auto qualifiers, sprints 4.6, and distances 7.0 based on this year's standards.  That's despite the fact that many standards were raised this year, including faster times in both DMRs, both miles, the women's 3000m, and the men's 60m, as well as tougher qualifiers in the women's long jump, pole vault, and pentathlon.  When last year's times are used instead of this year's, those numbers change to 7.6 for field, 5.1 for sprints, and 8.9 for distances.  And this year, there were 34 athletes within one second of the auto qualifier in the distances!

Average Auto-Qualifiers by Events (using '09 standards)

	2009	2010	Y/Y Change
Field	5.7	7.6	+33%
Sprints	4.0	5.1	+28%
Distances	9.2	8.9	-3%
Distance athletes +1 sec	24	34	+42%

As the table above shows, the overall quality in the NCAA continues to increase.  In the field events, the women's pole vault continues to improve, as well as men's and women's long jumps.  On the distance side, the slight decline is probably due to a number of teams qualifying last year in the DMR under questionable circumstances at the Notre Dame Invitational (only 10 ran sub-9:34 this year, as opposed to 27 last year, despite our glut of sub-4 milers).  All things considered, though, even the distances seem to have improved slightly this year. 

Before I get into the actual events, there are five questions I'll have in mind as I watch the meet this weekend:

Can anyone top Wheating?  Despite missing the fall due to injury, he opened with a smokin' 1:46.36 800m and followed it up with a dominant 3:58 mile.  The 2008 Olympic qualifier and reigning NCAA Outdoor 800m champ, it's hard to imagine anyone beating him.  With that said, he does tend to save it until the last possible moment to go for the win, and that could set him up for disappointment.  Similarly, it'll be interesting to see what he can do if he's anchoring the DMR for Oregon.  A big performance this weekend will solidify his status as the premiere talent in the NCAAs.

Can an Aussie win a title?  There are two very good possibilities in David McNeill and Ryan Foster.  Neither can be considered the favorite, despite McNeill's having the top times in both the 3000m and 5000m this season.  That's because he'll be facing Sam Chelanga (13:18i/27:28/NCAA XC champ last year) in the 5000m and a loaded field in the 3000m.  Foster has the unenviable task of trying to beat Andrew Wheating and a bunch of young upstarts (Greer, Mellon, Andrews) who didn't get the memo that running 1:47 isn't an easy thing to do.  I'd say the chances are about 33% that Australia takes home a title this weekend.

Can a freshman win a distance title?  I thought last year's freshman crop was amazing, but this year's might actually be stronger, at least in the middle distances.  With Rupp, Barringer and Kipyego running last year, there was little hope for a freshman to sneak a title, but Lacey Cramer managed to do it in the 800m.  This year, there are some stud middle distance freshman who just might have a chance.  Mac Fleet and Elijah Greer are ranked top-3 in the mile and 800m, respectively, for Oregon, as is Jordan Hasay in the mile (she's also entered in the 3000m).  In the 800m, we also have Robby Andrews of Virginia and Zach Mellon of Wisconsin.  It's unlikely any of them will end up atop the podium, but maybe they can surpass the total distance points earned by last year's freshmen (35, DMRs not included).

Bizzarri or Koll?  Bizzarri is the darling of the NCAA, having won the NCAA Outdoor 5000m, finished 3rd at the USATF Championships in the 5000m, and then somehow snuck a victory at the NCAA Cross Country Championships when Barringer and Kuijken faltered.  Her times aren't that impressive, but she always finds a way to win.  Koll had a down year last year due to injury, but is the American Collegiate 10000m record holder (32:11) and has run some smokin' fast times this season (8:56/15:29), both of which are much faster than Bizzarri's (or anyone else in the field's) personal bests.

Can UCLA win a DMR title?  Back in 1999, UCLA entered the NCAA Indoors with an unheralded team.  Jess Strutzel and Michael Granville were top 800 meter runners, and Mark Hauser was a 4-minute miler, so they were quite good.  But everybody was talking about Stanford and Arkansas.  Nobody gave Hauser much of a chance to hang on against the likes of Seneca Lassiter (Arkansas) or Michael Stember (Stanford) on the anchor.  They went on to set a then American Record 9:33.17 in the event.  This year's squad features a couple solid 800m guys (Cory Primm, Scott Crawford) and an unheralded 4-minute miler (Marlon Patterson) and they've already run faster than that 1999 squad ever did.  Could this be the year they rewrite history?

Now let's get to the events!

Women's 800m 

Top Returner:  Lacey Cramer, BYU (1st place)
Fastest Qualifier:  Phoebe Wright, Tennessee (2:01.47)
Favorite:  Phoebe Wright (2009 indoor runner-up, #1 qualifying time)
Other Notables:  LaTavia Thomas, LSU (2008 indoor champ), Chanelle Price, Tennessee (2:01 in high school)
Darkhorse:  Lea Wallace, Sacramento State (coached by my friend Scott Abbott, I'm pulling for Wallace or teammate Renisha Robinson!)
Did you know?  Phoebe Wright finished 3rd at USATF's last year but couldn't get the qualifying time to go to Berlin.

Prediction:  I think Wright is due for a big win.  She's been very good for a couple years, but hasn't put it all together on the right day.  This time she will.  Wright, Cramer, Beckwith, Thomas.

Men's 800m 

Top Returner:  Andrew Wheating, Oregon (2nd)
Fastest Qualifier:  Andrew Wheating (1:46.36)
Favorite:  Andrew Wheating (far and away)
Other Notables:  Ryan Foster, Penn State (8th outdoors, #2 qualifier), Chris Gowell (4th outdoors), Elijah Greer, Oregon (freshman is #3 qualifier, 1:47.33)
Darkhorse:  Robby Andrews, Virginia (the kid has a stellar kick, so hopefully he'll be within striking range)
Did you know?  Penn State qualified four men in the 800 meters!  That's nuts!

Prediction:  Wheating runs away with 200m to go.  Andrews, Foster and Greer both finish well, with freshmen taking tons of points in this event.  Wheating, Andrews, Foster, Greer.

Women's mile

Top Returner:  Pilar McShine, Florida State (4th)
Fastest Qualifier:  Charlotte Browning, Florida (4:31.24)
Favorite:  Charlotte Browning (the senior is 3 seconds faster than the #2 qualifier this year)
Other Notables:  Jordan Hasay, Oregon (frosh phenom, #3 qualifier), 
Darkhorse:  Nicole Schappert, Villanova (she'll be dangerous if she's got any more of that cross country mojo left from last year)
Did you know?  Charlotte Browning finished 8th at last year's indoor meet, and is the #2 returner behind FSU's McShine.

Prediction: Last year, I didn't believe Hasay would win her first NCAA title as a freshman (unless it was a DMR).  But this race is lining up well for her.  I think she's going to take the title.  McShine, Browning and Follett in 2nd through 4th, respectively.

Men's mile

Top Returner:  Lee Emanuel, New Mexico (1st)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lee Emanuel (3:57.62)
Favorite:  Lee Emanuel (do you really want to bet against a 25 year-old returning champion and #1 qualifier?)
Other Notables:  Mac Fleet, Oregon (frosh phenom, #2 qualifier), A.J. Acosta, Oregon (footlocker champ, 3:58), Jeff See, Ohio State (8th outdoors)
Darkhorse:  Ben Blankenship, Minnesota (he's young, sub-3:58, and won the Big 10)
Did you know?  22 men broke the 4-minute barrier this year indoors, but only 16 of them entered in the mile at NCAAs.  Notables who didn't enter the mile include Wheating, Dorian Ulrey (Arkansas), and Craig Miller (Wisconsin).

Prediction: Last year Emanuel ran away with the race from 600m out.  This year, he'll try to do that again, but he won't break away and it'll be a struggle to the end.  His experience will win out, however, and Emanuel will repeat as champion.  Following him will be See, Blankenship, and Fleet.

Women's 3000m 

Top Returner:  Angela Bizzarri, Illinois (4th)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lisa Koll, Iowa State (8:56.09)
Favorite:  Angela Bizzarri (but only because Koll is entered in the 5000m the night before)
Other Notables:  Sheila Reid, Villanova (#2 qualifier, 9:04.65); Bridget Franek, Penn State and Nicole Blood, Oregon (perennial NCAA scorers); Jordan Hasay (frosh phenom)
Darkhorse:  Marie Lawrence, Washington (known as a steepler, she has run well of late and could surprise)
Did you know?  This is my race of the meet.  I think it's 50/50 between Bizzarri and Koll, and there are a few other ladies plenty talented enough to sneak a victory.

Prediction: Koll tries to run away with it, but Bizzarri holds on and takes her third NCAA title.  Nicole Blood and Sheila Reid eat up Koll in the last lap and finish in that order.

Men's 3000m 

Top Returner:  Michael Coe, California (2nd)
Fastest Qualifier:  David McNeill, Northern Arizona (7:47.52)
Favorite:  David McNeill (he's got the resume and the time to warrant being favorite)
Other Notables:  Lee Emanuel (2009 mile champ); Dorian Ulrey, Arkansas (3:35 1500m); Craig Miller, Wisconsin (#2 returning miler, #2 qualifier); Brandon Bethke, Arizona State (sub-13:30)
Darkhorse:  Brandon Bethke (nobody talks about him, but he's been one of the top collegiate runners the past two years -- 3:59/7:51/13:27)
Did you know?  German Fernandez ran 7:51 indoors this year and was set to run in this race before twisting his ankle at his conference championships and having to withdraw.

Prediction:  This one's the hardest to predict (says the guy who no doubt failed to predict any of them correctly!).  I think McNeill will be hurting after his 5000m battle with Chelanga, opening the door for Coe to take it.  Miller will finish strong for 2nd, Bethke 3rd, and Ulrey a dissapointed 4th.  The times will all be within one second of each other.

Women's 5000m 

Top Returner:  Bridget Franek, Penn State (4th)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lisa Koll, Iowa State (15:29.65)
Favorite:  Lisa Koll (she's far and away the fastest in the field, and she'll be running fresh)
Other Notables:  Nicole Blood, Oregon (15:38 PR)
Darkhorse:  Janet Jesang, Western Kentucky (7th last year)
Did you know?  Lisa Koll's qualifying time is 22 seconds faster than any other athlete's in the field, and 9 seconds faster than Nicole Blood's personal best.  This is Koll's race to lose.

Prediction: A slow first half, before Koll gets impatient and throws the hammer down.  The top runners go with her, but she's too much for them, winning by half a lap.  Blood, Jesang, Franek take the next spots.

Men's 5000m 

Top Returner:  Sam Chelanga, Liberty (2nd)
Fastest Qualifier:  David McNeill, NAU (13:39.32)
Favorite:  Sam Chelanga (the guy ran 13:18/27:28 last year...he's the favorite)
Other Notables:  a lot of sophomores: Colby Lowe, Oklahoma State (#3 qualifier), Ryan Collins, Virginia (#4 qualifier), Elliott Heath, Stanford (#5 qualifier), Luke Puskedra, Oregon (6th last year as a freshman)
Darkhorse:  Colby Lowe (this kid is really really good, but runs under the exceedingly large shadow of German Fernandez at Oklahoma State)
Did you know?  Sam Chelanga has never won an NCAA track title.  Last year, Jenny Barringer finally won her first Big 12 title, because until last year Sally Kipyego dominated all of their races.  Chelanga has been in that same boat with athletes like Galen Rupp.  We'll see if this is the year he does it.

Prediction: This is my one big "darkhorse for the victory" prediction.  I think Chelanga and McNeill will size each other up for most of the race, allowing a few guys with less top-end speed to hang around.  Colby Lowe will be one of them, and he'll hang on just long enough to take down both McNeill and Chelanga in a helluva last lap.  Lowe, McNeill, Chelanga, Heath.

Women's Distance Medley Relay 

Top Returner:  Tennessee (1st, in World Record time)
Fastest Qualifier:  Oregon (10:59.64)
Favorite:  Oregon (but I don't think Tennessee or Villanova are that far off)
Other Notables:  Villanova (#2 qualifier), Georgetown (#4 qualifier)
Darkhorse:  BYU (they only qualified with an 11:10, but they could have an NCAA 800m champ anchoring them...they just need to stay close)
Did you know?  Tennessee lost their superstar anchor, Sarah Bowman, who graduated last year.  They have the top two 800m qualifiers (Wright and Price), but their team isn't nearly as strong on paper this year.

Prediction: The top three teams--Oregon, Villanova and Tennessee--are very strong on both the front and back ends of this relay.  They should be able to gain some separation from the rest of the pack.  Then it all comes down to who anchors.  If it's Wright, I think Tennessee wins.  If it's not, I think Reid has the best shot to take down the field.  Should be a great race.  I'm going with Tennessee, Villanova, Oregon as my top three, with BYU sneaking up for 4th.

Men's Distance Medley Relay 

Top Returner:  Oregon (1st)
Fastest Qualifier:  Oregon (9:29.82)
Favorite:  Oregon (they have so many middle distance runners it's scary)
Other Notables:  Arkansas (2nd last year, Ulrey anchoring), California (3rd last year, Coe anchoring), Stanford (#2 qualifier)
Darkhorse:  UCLA (#3 qualifier flying completely under the radar)
Did you know?  The top 5 qualifiers are all from the Pac 10 conference.  

Prediction: It's so hard to know what team Oregon will actually put out there.  If Wheating anchors, I think Oregon wins.  Oregon, Arkansas, Cal, UCLA.  If Wheating doesn't anchor, I'm going to go with Ulrey or Coe taking their teams to victory in a big last lap.  Arkansas, Cal, Oregon, UCLA.

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Let's get this party started with a few breakthrough performers.  Athletes are listed with their name and ranking from last year (with PRs in parentheses).

In high school, Trafeh beat Galen Rupp at the Foot Locker West Regionals.

50.  Mohamed Trafeh, NR (3000m 7:58.59 - 5000m 13:51.03 - 10k road 29:16 - 15k road 42:58 - half marathon 1:00:39)

Mo Trafeh is an enigma.  A superstar in high school, he looked destined to become a great 5k/10k guy in college.  Instead he tried to be a miler.  He never had the career I thought he was destined for, and then he disappeared for a while before getting his US citizenship, spending time in Morocco and then popping up on the road race circuit. 

He ran 29:16 to win the Cow Harbor 10k, then 59:01 for 2nd in the US 20k Champs last year.  He then ran 62:11 for a half marathon in Marrakech this January.  But he makes this list because of his smokin' 42:58 Gate River Run victory in Jacksonville, the 4th fastest time ever on that course (just 10 seconds off Meb's best time and 54 seconds ahead of 2nd place Tim Nelson).  He then ran 1:00:39 for #3 all-time on the US half-marathon list.  He looks poised to do something really special this summer.  Or he could disappear completely for a couple more years and return a steeplechaser.  Nothing would surprise me, honestly.

49.  Desiree Davila, NR (3000m 8:51.08 - 5000m 16:02.15 - 10000m 32:25.78 - half 72:10 - marathon 2:27:53)
48.  Brett Gotcher, NR (5000m 13:56.40 - 10000m 28:27.79 - half 62:09 - marathon 2:10:36)

These two marathoners snuck onto this list with very big but very different performances this winter.  Davila brings Hanson-Brooks to the top 50 by steadily improving her times over the past few years, culminating in a 2:27:53 at the World Championships last year (just one spot behind much ballyhooed Kara Goucher).  But it was her smokin' fast 3k that has me excited.  She qualified for the World Indoor Championships final and ran 8:51, which will hopefully translate to better times on the roads later this year.

Gotcher is like Ryan Hall lite.  He was good but not great on the track, but seems to have found his niche on the roads.  He won the US 20k Championships in New Haven last year (over Trafeh), but it was his debut marathon in Houston (2:10:36) this January that earned him this spot.  The fourth fastest debut ever, he has raised the bar for a large group of US distance runners viewing the marathon as the next logical step in their career progression.

47.  Bridget Franek, NR (3000m 9:10.04 - Steeple 9:36.74 - 5000m 15:56.76)

Barring a surprise newcomer (Shelby Greany?), Franek will be a co-favorite to win the NCAA steeplechase this year.  Her 9:36 at the NCAAs was a big PR, and she finished fourth at US Outdoors as well.  The Penn State senior benefits from the graduations of Jenny Barringer and Nicole Bush, but does have big competition in UW's Mel Lawrence for the NCAA title.

Could Price be more suited to the 600 meters?

46.  Chanelle Price, 15 (800m 2:01.61 - 1000m 2:42.71 - Mile 4:46.87)

Price has won a couple DMR titles, but hasn't looked like the future 800m champion she projected to be in high school.  In fact, she reminds me of Michael Granville, a superstar high schooler who was more suited for the 600 than the 400 or 800.  The 800m is stacked in both college and pros, so I should have ranked her in the high 20s last year, making this drop a little smaller than it appears to be. 

45.  Khadevis Robinson, 26 (600m 1:15.23 - 800m 1:43.68 - 1500m 3:45.36)

He still has a shot at winning a title or two, and he can probably keep making world teams, but the torch has officially been passed to Nick Symmonds.

44.  Molly Huddle, NR (3000m 8:58.51 - 5000m 15:17.13 - 10000m 31:27.12)
43.  Tim Nelson, 49 (3000m 7:48.87 - 5000m 13:24.87 - 10000m 27:36.99 - Half 62:11)

Huddle disappeared for a couple years, despite winning some road races around the country.  She's back this year, however, with a near PB 15:20 solo effort indoors, followed by a solid 2nd place finish to Flanagan at USA XC.  She looks like she may be ready to make the leap.

Nelson just got thrashed by Trafeh at the Gate River Run, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt after his consistent 2009 that saw him run 27:36 and qualify for Berlin.  He's a mainstay on the roads (62:11 half this January) and will hopefully drop some bombs this summer on the track.

42.  Morgan Uceny, NR (800m 2:00.01 - 1000m 2:40.07 - 1500m 4:06.93)

Uceny gets my Memorial Rob Myers spot on the ranking list.  Last year I put Myers on the list instead of Leonel Manzano because he wins indoor titles and he has better PR's than most people realize.  He's not on this list this year because, well, he probably shouldn't have been in the first place. 

You could argue Uceny doesn't belong on this list.  Is she really going to beat Pierce, Rowbury, Wurth-Thomas, and Vessey?  It's entirely possible she won't even make top three.  With that said, she did hold off Rowbury to take the US Indoor 1500m title this year (4:19.46 at altitude) and she has legit PR's.  I don't think she gets the attention she deserves, but I could equally see her passing on this place to another underappreciated runner next year.  

When his running career is over, Jager plans to play Sgt. Elias in the remake of Platoon.

41.  Chris Solinsky, 28 (1500m 3:37.27 - Mile 3:55.75 - 3000m 7:36.90 - 5000m 13:12.24)
40.  Evan Jager, NR (800m 1:50.1 - 1500m 3:38.33 - Mile 3:54.35 - 3000m 7:41.78 - 5000m 13:22.18)

Some of you are probably saying, "What? Solinsky and Jager #40 and 41?!"  That's right.  It's not that they aren't fantastic, it's that they're not fantastic enough.  They are essentially 5k runners in a country that has Lagat, Ritz, and Teg ahead of them, and Rupp, Chris Derrick and German Fernandez all gaining fast.  Despite their amazing PR's, how can you rank them higher?

39.  Matt Centrowitz, NR (800m 1:51.57 - 1500m 3:36.92 - Mile 3:57.92 - 3000m 7:55.90 - 5000m 13:49.15)
38.  Mac Fleet, NR (800m 1:50.31 - 1500m 3:47.44 - Mile 3:57.70)

Centrowitz ran the fastest 1500m time in NCAAs last year but hurt his foot prior to NCAA Outdoors and didn't place.  Fleet, just a freshman this year, has already run 3:57 indoors and took 2nd in the NCAA Indoor mile with a big finish.

But these two Oregon milers are in a weird spot.  They're probably the 2nd and 3rd best milers on their own team behind Wheating, but Wheating won't run it at a championship.  They can't be called the favorite in the NCAA either because of Emanuel, Ulrey, and German Fernandez.  But they are both young, have great pedigree, and most importantly they have NCAA eligibility for a couple years, which increases their rankings considerably.

37.  Alysia Johnson, NR (800m 1:59.29)

Until World Indoors, Johnson was "that girl who always wears a flower in her hair".  Now she's "that girl who wore a flower in her hair while winning a bronze medal."  I would love to rank her higher than this but despite her medal she's got only one race (800m), she was inconsistent (nonexistent?) last year, and she's got a lot of fast women she'll have to contend with to even win a US title.  

36.  Mel Lawrence, NR (3000m 9:08.50 - Steeple 9:40.98 - 5000m 15:50.36)

Bridget Franek (#47) has the top returning time, but Mel was the top returning finisher from last year's NCAA Outdoor steeplechase.  The UW sophomore is a legitimate top 5 in the US, and has a couple years of eligibility left as well.  I expect her to win the NCAA steeple championship this year, and would be shocked if she graduated without at least one title.

35.  Brenda Martinez, NR (800m 2:00.85 - 1500m 4:09.52 - Mile 4:39.58 - 3000m 9:17.80)
34.  Lacey Cramer, 21 (800m 2:03.01 - 1500m 4:17.10)
33.  Phoebe Wright, NR (800m 2:01.12 - 1500m 4:24.28 - Mile 4:43.50)

When you add Price (#45) and LaTavia Thomas of LSU to these three women, the 800m becomes a giant hodgepodge of talent and it's so hard to predict who will come out on top.  I actually think Martinez will focus on the 1500m (where she'll be up against British NCAA Indoor champ Charlotte Browning, amongst others), taking her partially out of the equation.  Wright, the 2010 NCAA Indoor champ, is the favorite to repeat outdoors.  With that said, Cramer has proved she can win it before and she has two more years of eligibility after this year.

Just another cool down for America's top steepler.

32.  Josh McAdams, 30 (Mile 4:00.59 - 3000m 7:55.98 - Steeple 8:21.36)

I'm just going to stick with what I wrote last year.  My feelings haven't changed a bit:

"[McAdams] is kind of like the US running equivalent to actor Seth Green.  He's got one character he can play (the steeple), he plays it in every performance, and he is in seemingly everything.  That's because the steepler is the running equivalent to the character actor in Hollywood: you can make for yourself a long, solid career even if you've got only one "character" you can play.  I mean, imagine Seth Green playing an action hero in a big budget movie and you pretty much get a glimpse of what it would be like to see Josh McAdams run an elite 5k.  But make him the smartass sidekick in a solid cast and he'll never disappoint."

31.  Deena Kastor, 29 (3000m 8:42.59 - 5000m 14:51.62 - 10000m 30:50.32 - Half 67:35 - Marathon 2:19:36AR)

She's a year older but a year healthier.  Her recent 69:43 for half marathon in Tempe proves that she's still as good as anyone on the roads, and that's where all the money is anyway.  I don't think she'll be making any more runs at the AR, but she could certainly continue to place at major marathons for the next couple years.

30.  Anthony Famiglietti, 14 (1500m 3:35.83 - Mile 3:55.71 - 3000m 7:41.27 - Steeple 8:17.34 - 5000m 13:11.93 - 10000m 27:37.74)

Last year Fam skipped the steeple in favor of the 5k and 10k, and didn't achieve the goals he'd set in those events (though in his defense they were lofty).  This year he's focused on the roads, and looking to run a debut marathon.  I'm not sure if he'll ever go back to the steeple, and if that's the case, he loses a lot of his value in these rankings.

I argued last year that Fam is the Johnny Depp of US Distance Running, the one athlete who decides what he wants to do not based on what will guarantee to be a blockbuster, but based on whatever script he finds interesting at the time.  Let's hope his foray onto the roads (where he has had some success, winning Gate River last year, for example) turns out to be more of a Captain Jack Sparrow than an Inspector Frederick Abberline.

29.  Christin Wurth-Thomas, NR (800m 1:59.35 - 1500m 3:59.98 - Mile 4:27.18 - 3000m 8:54.97 - 5000m 15:28.04)

I didn't have Wurth-Thomas rated last year.  She completely caught me by surprise.  This year she takes Erin Donohue's spot as the gritty overachiever.  Then again, that's what happens when you drop your PR's by 2 seconds in the 800m and 5 seconds in the 1500m, all while looking like your machine is running without lubrication.  The crazy thing is she's barely in the top three women in the US in both events despite her crazy fast times.  We'll see if Wurth-Thomas had a career year last year or if there's more in the tank.  For now, this is the highest I can rank her.

Ulrey finally won his first NCAA title, but can he win the big one - the NCAA Outdoor 1500m?

28.  Dorian Ulrey, 31 (800m 1:48.46 - 1000m 2:21.56 - 1500m 3:35.23 - Mile 3:57.60 - 3000m 7:50.86)

I don't know why I had Ulrey ranked so high last year when he hadn't won anything yet.  Despite qualifying for Berlin and making the final and then taking home the NCAA Indoor 3000m title this year, I can't justify ranking him any higher than this.  We saw in the anchor leg of the DMR that he didn't have the kick to beat Wheating (or the courage to try and break him).  And when we get to NCAA Outdoors there won't be any 3k for him to run.  He may...may...be the top miler in the NCAA right now, but he'll have to face a beastly 1500m field, and if I have to wager on any individual athlete or a beastly field, I'll always go with the beastly field.

27.  Lukas Verzbicas, 48 (3000m 8:21.32 - Two Miles 8:53.98 - 5000m 14:18.42i)
26.  Chelsey Sveinsson, NR (800m 2:08.46 - 1500m 4:18.13 - Mile 4:40.24 - Two Miles 10:04.85)

These are the only two high schoolers in my top 50 this year.  Verzbicas may burn me here in two ways.  First, I'm not certain he will compete as an American, since he was born in Lithuania.  With that said, he's 17 years old so he can make still make that choice.  Second, he's a phenomenal triathlete, and he may choose to pursue that sport instead.  As a sophomore Foot Locker Cross Country Champion, however, he's gotta be on this list.

As for Sveinsson, well, I'm just enamored with her.  She ran 10:04 for two miles as a sophomore, and almost won Foot Locker as a junior.  She broke away and had the race in hand before Goethals unleashed a furious kick to steal victory.  As good as Hasay was in high school, Sveinsson may be better.  She's still got two more outdoor seasons of track to prove it.  And yes, I'd absolutely trade her straight up for anyone above her on this list.

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1500m - Gaz De France Golden League