By Bryan Green

Last year when I wrote my 2009 NCAA Indoor Preview, I highlighted some of the records that went down during the indoor season and then wrote the following paragraph:

Then there's the quantity of fast times being run.  I took a look at the qualifying times for all events and saw an amazing statistic.  In field events, there were an average of 5.7 automatic qualifiers per event.  In sprints, there were only 4.0 autos, on average.  In the distance events, however, there were on average 9.2 auto qualifying marks per event, with an amazing 27 auto marks in the DMRs (which is the best indication for overall middle-distance strength).  And another 24 marks were within one second of the qualifiers.  And I didn't count anyone not entered in a race, like Fernandez and Rupp in the mile.  This is very much the result of so many races being run at the University of Washington and Notre Dame, which have large, fast tracks beneficial to distance runners.  But it's also likely the result of a general rise in the quality of distance running in the NCAA.

This year was even more impressive.  Field events saw an average of 7.1 auto qualifiers, sprints 4.6, and distances 7.0 based on this year's standards.  That's despite the fact that many standards were raised this year, including faster times in both DMRs, both miles, the women's 3000m, and the men's 60m, as well as tougher qualifiers in the women's long jump, pole vault, and pentathlon.  When last year's times are used instead of this year's, those numbers change to 7.6 for field, 5.1 for sprints, and 8.9 for distances.  And this year, there were 34 athletes within one second of the auto qualifier in the distances!

Average Auto-Qualifiers by Events (using '09 standards)

	2009	2010	Y/Y Change
Field	5.7	7.6	+33%
Sprints	4.0	5.1	+28%
Distances	9.2	8.9	-3%
Distance athletes +1 sec	24	34	+42%

As the table above shows, the overall quality in the NCAA continues to increase.  In the field events, the women's pole vault continues to improve, as well as men's and women's long jumps.  On the distance side, the slight decline is probably due to a number of teams qualifying last year in the DMR under questionable circumstances at the Notre Dame Invitational (only 10 ran sub-9:34 this year, as opposed to 27 last year, despite our glut of sub-4 milers).  All things considered, though, even the distances seem to have improved slightly this year. 

Before I get into the actual events, there are five questions I'll have in mind as I watch the meet this weekend:

Can anyone top Wheating?  Despite missing the fall due to injury, he opened with a smokin' 1:46.36 800m and followed it up with a dominant 3:58 mile.  The 2008 Olympic qualifier and reigning NCAA Outdoor 800m champ, it's hard to imagine anyone beating him.  With that said, he does tend to save it until the last possible moment to go for the win, and that could set him up for disappointment.  Similarly, it'll be interesting to see what he can do if he's anchoring the DMR for Oregon.  A big performance this weekend will solidify his status as the premiere talent in the NCAAs.

Can an Aussie win a title?  There are two very good possibilities in David McNeill and Ryan Foster.  Neither can be considered the favorite, despite McNeill's having the top times in both the 3000m and 5000m this season.  That's because he'll be facing Sam Chelanga (13:18i/27:28/NCAA XC champ last year) in the 5000m and a loaded field in the 3000m.  Foster has the unenviable task of trying to beat Andrew Wheating and a bunch of young upstarts (Greer, Mellon, Andrews) who didn't get the memo that running 1:47 isn't an easy thing to do.  I'd say the chances are about 33% that Australia takes home a title this weekend.

Can a freshman win a distance title?  I thought last year's freshman crop was amazing, but this year's might actually be stronger, at least in the middle distances.  With Rupp, Barringer and Kipyego running last year, there was little hope for a freshman to sneak a title, but Lacey Cramer managed to do it in the 800m.  This year, there are some stud middle distance freshman who just might have a chance.  Mac Fleet and Elijah Greer are ranked top-3 in the mile and 800m, respectively, for Oregon, as is Jordan Hasay in the mile (she's also entered in the 3000m).  In the 800m, we also have Robby Andrews of Virginia and Zach Mellon of Wisconsin.  It's unlikely any of them will end up atop the podium, but maybe they can surpass the total distance points earned by last year's freshmen (35, DMRs not included).

Bizzarri or Koll?  Bizzarri is the darling of the NCAA, having won the NCAA Outdoor 5000m, finished 3rd at the USATF Championships in the 5000m, and then somehow snuck a victory at the NCAA Cross Country Championships when Barringer and Kuijken faltered.  Her times aren't that impressive, but she always finds a way to win.  Koll had a down year last year due to injury, but is the American Collegiate 10000m record holder (32:11) and has run some smokin' fast times this season (8:56/15:29), both of which are much faster than Bizzarri's (or anyone else in the field's) personal bests.

Can UCLA win a DMR title?  Back in 1999, UCLA entered the NCAA Indoors with an unheralded team.  Jess Strutzel and Michael Granville were top 800 meter runners, and Mark Hauser was a 4-minute miler, so they were quite good.  But everybody was talking about Stanford and Arkansas.  Nobody gave Hauser much of a chance to hang on against the likes of Seneca Lassiter (Arkansas) or Michael Stember (Stanford) on the anchor.  They went on to set a then American Record 9:33.17 in the event.  This year's squad features a couple solid 800m guys (Cory Primm, Scott Crawford) and an unheralded 4-minute miler (Marlon Patterson) and they've already run faster than that 1999 squad ever did.  Could this be the year they rewrite history?

Now let's get to the events!

Women's 800m 

Top Returner:  Lacey Cramer, BYU (1st place)
Fastest Qualifier:  Phoebe Wright, Tennessee (2:01.47)
Favorite:  Phoebe Wright (2009 indoor runner-up, #1 qualifying time)
Other Notables:  LaTavia Thomas, LSU (2008 indoor champ), Chanelle Price, Tennessee (2:01 in high school)
Darkhorse:  Lea Wallace, Sacramento State (coached by my friend Scott Abbott, I'm pulling for Wallace or teammate Renisha Robinson!)
Did you know?  Phoebe Wright finished 3rd at USATF's last year but couldn't get the qualifying time to go to Berlin.

Prediction:  I think Wright is due for a big win.  She's been very good for a couple years, but hasn't put it all together on the right day.  This time she will.  Wright, Cramer, Beckwith, Thomas.

Men's 800m 

Top Returner:  Andrew Wheating, Oregon (2nd)
Fastest Qualifier:  Andrew Wheating (1:46.36)
Favorite:  Andrew Wheating (far and away)
Other Notables:  Ryan Foster, Penn State (8th outdoors, #2 qualifier), Chris Gowell (4th outdoors), Elijah Greer, Oregon (freshman is #3 qualifier, 1:47.33)
Darkhorse:  Robby Andrews, Virginia (the kid has a stellar kick, so hopefully he'll be within striking range)
Did you know?  Penn State qualified four men in the 800 meters!  That's nuts!

Prediction:  Wheating runs away with 200m to go.  Andrews, Foster and Greer both finish well, with freshmen taking tons of points in this event.  Wheating, Andrews, Foster, Greer.

Women's mile

Top Returner:  Pilar McShine, Florida State (4th)
Fastest Qualifier:  Charlotte Browning, Florida (4:31.24)
Favorite:  Charlotte Browning (the senior is 3 seconds faster than the #2 qualifier this year)
Other Notables:  Jordan Hasay, Oregon (frosh phenom, #3 qualifier), 
Darkhorse:  Nicole Schappert, Villanova (she'll be dangerous if she's got any more of that cross country mojo left from last year)
Did you know?  Charlotte Browning finished 8th at last year's indoor meet, and is the #2 returner behind FSU's McShine.

Prediction: Last year, I didn't believe Hasay would win her first NCAA title as a freshman (unless it was a DMR).  But this race is lining up well for her.  I think she's going to take the title.  McShine, Browning and Follett in 2nd through 4th, respectively.

Men's mile

Top Returner:  Lee Emanuel, New Mexico (1st)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lee Emanuel (3:57.62)
Favorite:  Lee Emanuel (do you really want to bet against a 25 year-old returning champion and #1 qualifier?)
Other Notables:  Mac Fleet, Oregon (frosh phenom, #2 qualifier), A.J. Acosta, Oregon (footlocker champ, 3:58), Jeff See, Ohio State (8th outdoors)
Darkhorse:  Ben Blankenship, Minnesota (he's young, sub-3:58, and won the Big 10)
Did you know?  22 men broke the 4-minute barrier this year indoors, but only 16 of them entered in the mile at NCAAs.  Notables who didn't enter the mile include Wheating, Dorian Ulrey (Arkansas), and Craig Miller (Wisconsin).

Prediction: Last year Emanuel ran away with the race from 600m out.  This year, he'll try to do that again, but he won't break away and it'll be a struggle to the end.  His experience will win out, however, and Emanuel will repeat as champion.  Following him will be See, Blankenship, and Fleet.

Women's 3000m 

Top Returner:  Angela Bizzarri, Illinois (4th)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lisa Koll, Iowa State (8:56.09)
Favorite:  Angela Bizzarri (but only because Koll is entered in the 5000m the night before)
Other Notables:  Sheila Reid, Villanova (#2 qualifier, 9:04.65); Bridget Franek, Penn State and Nicole Blood, Oregon (perennial NCAA scorers); Jordan Hasay (frosh phenom)
Darkhorse:  Marie Lawrence, Washington (known as a steepler, she has run well of late and could surprise)
Did you know?  This is my race of the meet.  I think it's 50/50 between Bizzarri and Koll, and there are a few other ladies plenty talented enough to sneak a victory.

Prediction: Koll tries to run away with it, but Bizzarri holds on and takes her third NCAA title.  Nicole Blood and Sheila Reid eat up Koll in the last lap and finish in that order.

Men's 3000m 

Top Returner:  Michael Coe, California (2nd)
Fastest Qualifier:  David McNeill, Northern Arizona (7:47.52)
Favorite:  David McNeill (he's got the resume and the time to warrant being favorite)
Other Notables:  Lee Emanuel (2009 mile champ); Dorian Ulrey, Arkansas (3:35 1500m); Craig Miller, Wisconsin (#2 returning miler, #2 qualifier); Brandon Bethke, Arizona State (sub-13:30)
Darkhorse:  Brandon Bethke (nobody talks about him, but he's been one of the top collegiate runners the past two years -- 3:59/7:51/13:27)
Did you know?  German Fernandez ran 7:51 indoors this year and was set to run in this race before twisting his ankle at his conference championships and having to withdraw.

Prediction:  This one's the hardest to predict (says the guy who no doubt failed to predict any of them correctly!).  I think McNeill will be hurting after his 5000m battle with Chelanga, opening the door for Coe to take it.  Miller will finish strong for 2nd, Bethke 3rd, and Ulrey a dissapointed 4th.  The times will all be within one second of each other.

Women's 5000m 

Top Returner:  Bridget Franek, Penn State (4th)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lisa Koll, Iowa State (15:29.65)
Favorite:  Lisa Koll (she's far and away the fastest in the field, and she'll be running fresh)
Other Notables:  Nicole Blood, Oregon (15:38 PR)
Darkhorse:  Janet Jesang, Western Kentucky (7th last year)
Did you know?  Lisa Koll's qualifying time is 22 seconds faster than any other athlete's in the field, and 9 seconds faster than Nicole Blood's personal best.  This is Koll's race to lose.

Prediction: A slow first half, before Koll gets impatient and throws the hammer down.  The top runners go with her, but she's too much for them, winning by half a lap.  Blood, Jesang, Franek take the next spots.

Men's 5000m 

Top Returner:  Sam Chelanga, Liberty (2nd)
Fastest Qualifier:  David McNeill, NAU (13:39.32)
Favorite:  Sam Chelanga (the guy ran 13:18/27:28 last year...he's the favorite)
Other Notables:  a lot of sophomores: Colby Lowe, Oklahoma State (#3 qualifier), Ryan Collins, Virginia (#4 qualifier), Elliott Heath, Stanford (#5 qualifier), Luke Puskedra, Oregon (6th last year as a freshman)
Darkhorse:  Colby Lowe (this kid is really really good, but runs under the exceedingly large shadow of German Fernandez at Oklahoma State)
Did you know?  Sam Chelanga has never won an NCAA track title.  Last year, Jenny Barringer finally won her first Big 12 title, because until last year Sally Kipyego dominated all of their races.  Chelanga has been in that same boat with athletes like Galen Rupp.  We'll see if this is the year he does it.

Prediction: This is my one big "darkhorse for the victory" prediction.  I think Chelanga and McNeill will size each other up for most of the race, allowing a few guys with less top-end speed to hang around.  Colby Lowe will be one of them, and he'll hang on just long enough to take down both McNeill and Chelanga in a helluva last lap.  Lowe, McNeill, Chelanga, Heath.

Women's Distance Medley Relay 

Top Returner:  Tennessee (1st, in World Record time)
Fastest Qualifier:  Oregon (10:59.64)
Favorite:  Oregon (but I don't think Tennessee or Villanova are that far off)
Other Notables:  Villanova (#2 qualifier), Georgetown (#4 qualifier)
Darkhorse:  BYU (they only qualified with an 11:10, but they could have an NCAA 800m champ anchoring them...they just need to stay close)
Did you know?  Tennessee lost their superstar anchor, Sarah Bowman, who graduated last year.  They have the top two 800m qualifiers (Wright and Price), but their team isn't nearly as strong on paper this year.

Prediction: The top three teams--Oregon, Villanova and Tennessee--are very strong on both the front and back ends of this relay.  They should be able to gain some separation from the rest of the pack.  Then it all comes down to who anchors.  If it's Wright, I think Tennessee wins.  If it's not, I think Reid has the best shot to take down the field.  Should be a great race.  I'm going with Tennessee, Villanova, Oregon as my top three, with BYU sneaking up for 4th.

Men's Distance Medley Relay 

Top Returner:  Oregon (1st)
Fastest Qualifier:  Oregon (9:29.82)
Favorite:  Oregon (they have so many middle distance runners it's scary)
Other Notables:  Arkansas (2nd last year, Ulrey anchoring), California (3rd last year, Coe anchoring), Stanford (#2 qualifier)
Darkhorse:  UCLA (#3 qualifier flying completely under the radar)
Did you know?  The top 5 qualifiers are all from the Pac 10 conference.  

Prediction: It's so hard to know what team Oregon will actually put out there.  If Wheating anchors, I think Oregon wins.  Oregon, Arkansas, Cal, UCLA.  If Wheating doesn't anchor, I'm going to go with Ulrey or Coe taking their teams to victory in a big last lap.  Arkansas, Cal, Oregon, UCLA.

Previous Page  -  Intro  -  26-50  -  11-25  -  Top 10

We've finally made it to the Top 10.  Four people from last year's top 10 didn't make the cut, so let's see who took their places.  Athlete name, last year's rank (and PRs in parentheses).

Bernard Lagat is still the best in the US...but for how much longer?

10.  Bernard Lagat, 6 (800m 1:46.00 - 1500m 3:26.34 - Mile 3:47.28 - 3000m 7:32.43AR - 5000m 12:59.22)

Yes, I lowered his ranking even though he just won a World Indoor title.  I'm afraid of his age.  It doesn't take much to derail a 36 year old, even one as great as Lagat.  His win at World Indoors shows he's still got it compared to most of the world, but with his announced focus on the 5000m, I'm not sure he's the favorite to win any more major outdoor titles.  Not if Bekele's running in them, anyway.

Despite Ritz and Teg having faster PR's over 5000m, Lagat is the clear favorite to win any head-to-head race because of his kick.  You know what would be ironic?  What if Lagat goes out and runs something like 12:53, and Teg goes out the next week and runs 12:55?  That would be hilarious.  Anyway, for the next year or two Lagat is still top dog in the US, but not for much longer than that.

9.  Dathan Ritzenhein, 17 (3000m 7:39.03 - Two Miles 8:11.74 - 5000m 12:56.27AR - 10000m 27:22.28 - Half 60:00 - Marathon 2:10:00)
8.  Galen Rupp, 2 (800m 1:49.87 - 1500m 3:39.14 - Mile 3:56.22 - 3000m 7:44.69 - 5000m 13:14.21 - 10000m 27:33.48)

These two training partners are at different stages in their careers, but their goals are pretty similar (as are their chances of achieving them).  Both have their sights set on Meb's 10000m AR, and it almost looks like the favorite to get it will be the first guy to go for it. 

Each had a phenomenal 2009, with Ritz setting the 5000m AR, finishing 6th in the Berlin 10000m (in a PR), and getting a bronze at the World Half Marathon Champs.  All he has to prove is that he can master the full marathon distance.  If he does, he'll have a resume that's pretty hard to beat.

Rupp absolutely destroyed the collegiate ranks last year, won the USA 10000m title easily (over Ritz), then finished 8th in Berlin.  He's started off the year with a PR at 5000m and a 5th place finish in the 3000m at the World Indoor Champs.  I would be shocked if neither of these two broke Meb's 10000m record this year, and I give the slight nod to Rupp, who I think might have been able to do it last year had he gotten in the right race in June.

2009 Top Ten (2010 rank)

10. Anna Pierce (5) 9. Alan Webb (16) 8. Nick Symmonds (13)  7. Shannon Rowbury (6) 6. Bernard Lagat (10) 5. Ryan Hall (11) 4. Kara Goucher (12) 3. Shalane Flanagan (3) 2. Galen Rupp (8) 1. Jenny Barringer (1) Watch Ryan Hall burn me by winning Boston now that I've bumped him from the top 10.  Trust me, though, I'll be ecstatic if he does. The next most likely person to burn me on this ranking? Nick Symmonds, because anyone can win a major 800m.  The event is just that fluky.  With that said, there are no global championships this year and by 2011, I think we may be talking just as much about Wheating winning a major 800m medal as Symmonds.

7.  German Fernandez, 11 (1500m 3:39.00 - Mile 3:55.02 - 3000m 7:47.97 - 5000m 13:25.46)

If there's one runner who can equal Alan Webb for an awe inspiring all-or-nothing quality to his performances, it's German Fernandez.  When he's on, he's a revelation.  He doesn't just win, but he dictates the race and wins on his own terms.  Last year he ran a solo 3:55.02 to set an NCAA record, easily won USA JR XC over Derrick, won the NCAA Outdoor 1500m despite leading the entire race, and then set the AJR for 5000m in finishing 5th at the USA Outdoor meet.  He just makes it all look so easy.

Except when he doesn't.  He's had his share of troubles, injuries and an iron deficiency, that have kept him from training consistently and running up to his potential.  He DNF'd NCAA XC his freshman year, missed time with a stress reaction in track, struggled through XC last year and then turned his ankle at the Big 12 Champs in indoor track.  His future seems so bright yet so unpredictable.

There are a couple things that have to be said, however.  We haven't seen a 1500m/5000m talent like him in a long time, maybe ever.  But he's still not a favorite to win either race at the NCAA level, despite his pulling off the 1500m victory last year.  Will he win more NCAA titles?  Surely.  But he's less of a lock than the other collegiates ahead of him.

6.  Shannon Rowbury, 7 (800m 2:00.94 - 1500m 4:00.33 - Mile 4:20.34 - 3000m 8:47.18 - 5000m 15:12.95)
5.  Anna Pierce, 10 (800m 1:58.80 - 1500m 3:59.38 - 3000m 8:58.07 - Steeple 9:22.76 - 5000m 15:53.36)

For various reasons I'm always a little bearish about Shannon Rowbury.  Maybe I'm just too focused on PRs and not enough on racing instincts, because I haven't really come to terms with the fact that she is the best 1500m runner in the US.  I had her ranked all over the place as I started putting this list together, and finally settled on 6th because of her bronze in Berlin last year.

One spot ahead of her is Pierce.  Not only did she finish 4th at World Indoors this year, but she didn't lose a single race over 800m last year, she had the 10th fastest time in the world for 800m and the 4th fastest over 1500m, and she still is the nation's #2 steepler (should she ever go back to it).  There aren't enough good things to say about her.

Once again, Wheating was .01 away from an NCAA title.

4.  Andrew Wheating, 12 (800m 1:45.03 - 1500m 3:38.60 - Mile 3:58.16)

I think Andrew Wheating's NCAA Indoor meet was instructive as to where he stands in the US today.  He anchored his DMR team to a victory, outkicking a 1:48/3:35 guy and a host of other top milers.  He then lost the 800m by .01 seconds because he A) always races from the back and has only one strategy and B) didn't go all out because he thought he had it won.  

What we learned is that Wheating is the best overall middle-distance runner in the NCAA, but he's still inexperienced.  He's got the killer instinct, but only when he's running from behind.  This will change though.  He learned a great lesson in Fayetteville.  You can bet Robby Andrews won't be sneaking up on him again, and you can bet that 1:44 is only a few outdoor races away.  He's still the major favorite to win NCAA Outdoors, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 1:44/3:35 either.  I think we're about to see the "Summer of Wheating".  Prepare to be amazed.

3.  Shalane Flanagan, 3 (1500m 4:05.86 - 3000m 8:33.35iAR - 5000m 14:44.80AR - 10000m 30:22.22 - Half 69:41)

Last year Flanagan struggled.  Expectations were high following her 10000m bronze in Beijing, but she finished a disappointing 2nd at the USA Outdoors and 14th in Berlin.  There was speculation as to whether it was a mistake to change coaches, and she kind of disappeared after the World Champs, ending her season early.

She came back strong this winter by running a 69:41 debut half marathon--6th all-time by an American--in what appeared to be a tempo effort.  She then destroyed a very strong field at USA XC and finished 12th at World XC.  She looks poised for a great summer, but what's most interesting is her planned marathon debut.  She's got the pedigree and track times to warrant very high expectations and if she can follow in Kastor's footsteps, she may be the next great American marathoner.

2.  Lisa Koll, 16 (Mile 4:41.37 - 3000m 8:56.09 - 5000m 15:29.65 - 10000m 31:18.07)

At the NCAA Indoor meet, Lisa Koll was outkicked in the last lap of the 3000m by Angela Bizzarri.  So why is she 14 spots higher?  Because she just rewrote the record books in the NCAA 10000m.

Two years ago, Koll ran 32:11.  She did that with a 5k PR in the 15:50s.  Last Friday she ran 31:18.07, breaking Kipyego's record by 7 seconds and putting her to number 6 on the all-time US performers list.  The time is only half the story though.  I was at this race and watched it with TnF News's Sieg Lindstrom.  We marveled at how Koll went out in 15:52--leading every lap from the gun-- and then rolled off a string of 74.2's that were simply mechanical.  Her 15:26 last 5k was faster than her PB and faster than any current collegiate runner has ever run in an open 5000 meters.  And she never looked like she was overextended.

She's also arriving at the perfect time to be a 10k runner.  Flanagan, Goucher and Begley are all equal to or stronger than her, but they are all starting to pursue careers on the roads.  For the next few years, the door is open to win a number of US titles in the 5 and 10.

As for this year, there's nobody in the NCAA who can run with her in the 10000m.  And if she doubles at NCAA Outdoors?  Bizzarri outkicked her to deny her the 5k/3k double indoors, but the 10/5 is more in her wheelhouse.  Honestly, I'm not sure I'd bet on Bizzarri, even if she's running fresh.

With Pierce no longer breathing down her back, Barringer owns the steeple.

1.  Jenny Barringer, 1 (800m 2:02.56 - 1500m 3:59.90 - 3000m 8:42.03 - Steeple 9:12.50 - 5000m 15:01.70)

Here's the thing.  Even without collegiate eligibility, you have to put Barringer in the top spot.  She's the AR holder for the steeplechase, and Pierce, her only real competition, is busy kicking arse in the middle distances.  She's ranked 8th all-time in the world for the steeple, and her PR's indicate that she's capable of running close to the world record in the event.  If she decides to enter other events, she's one of the top milers or 5000m runners in the country as well.

Right now she's the only US runner with a legit shot at a world record.  She's as good a bet as anyone to win a world title or medal.  She's got practically no competition in the steeple, and she's got the range to possibly win titles both up and down from her event.  She's young.  She's a workhorse.  She's the complete package.  She's (still) the most valuable runner in the US today.

Previous Page  -  Intro  -  26-50  -  11-25  -  Top 10

 

Pirrenee Steinert & Caitlin Willis Berlin World Champs Interviews August 2009

© 2009 The Runner's Tribe, all rights reserved. Published Tuesday August 18, 2009

Brought to you by Edward Ovadia who is in Berlin with official IAAF accreditation covering the championships for Runnerstribe.com

1500m - Gaz De France Golden League