Can anyone live up to the standard Mr. Solinsky set this year?

By Bryan Green

"Happiness is reality minus expectations."
--Tom Magliozzi

"I am so bored by this result."
--Anonymous LetsRun message board poster, following Galen Rupp's 13:10.05 PR in Gateshead

Galen Rupp ran another PR on Saturday.  His 13:10.05 at Gateshead moved him up to 8th on the US all-time list, just .05 seconds away from Adam Goucher--the man once thought to be America's next great hope at 5000m--and yet the performance was met with little of the fanfare we might have expected just two years ago.

As a fan of US distance running, I can't help but feel I've been spoiled these past couple years.  I've seen my countrymen medal at the Olympic Games (Flanagan) and World Championships (Lagat, Rowbury, Johnson), break American Records (Flanagan, Barringer, Ritzenhein, Solinsky, Lagat), and rewrite many of the US all-time lists.

On the women's side, our middle distance runners have developed into arguably the best group in the world.  We now have six active 800m runners going sub-2:00 and four who are sub-4:00 (or super close, in Rowbury's case).  On the men's side, our long distance runners continue to rewrite the US all-time lists.  Five of the top 10 performers on both the 5000m and 10000m lists set their bests between 2008 and now.

And then there is the new crop of young runners, athletes like Phoebe Wright, Angela Bizzarri, Lisa Koll, Andrew Wheating, Robbie Andrews, German Fernandez, Chris Derrick, and (I never thought I'd write this) A.J. Acosta (!) who all appear to be on the cusp of joining the US elite.  Yes, I can't say it enough, it's a very fun time to be a fan of US distance running.

Some memorable expectation-defying performances German Fernandez #1 (2008): HS distance double 4:00/8:34 German Fernandez #2 (2009): 3:56.5 debut indoor mile for WJR Jenny Barringer (2009): sub-4 near victory in Pre Classic 1500 Maggie Vessey (2009): drops a world leading 1:57 after 12 races w/o breaking 2:00 Dathan Ritzenhein (2009): 12:56 5000m AR is 20 second PR Dan Huling (2009): 8:14 steeple PR to go from unknown to mostly unknown Meb Keflezighi (2009): wins NYC marathon against stacked field Alysia Johnson (2010): wins World Indoors after 2 years w/o breaking 2:00 Lisa Koll (2010): solo 31:18 to get CR at Stanford and become #6 US Chris Solinsky (2010): debut 10k is sub-27 AR, followed by 16 sec PR at 5k for #4 US all-time Phoebe Wright (2010): 1:58.22 huge PR at Pre Classic

But it's also a dangerous time.  That's because US runners haven't just run fast times; they have put up such a consistent run of unbelievable performances that fans are losing their sense of perspective when it comes to judging their performances.  We're like a power hitter on a hot streak...we think every swing is going to be a home run, and we're a little disappointed when it's just a single.

When I grew up, the advice I got playing baseball was not to try to hit home runs, but to just hit the ball hard.  Put the ball in play and good things happen.  Great hitters get lots of hits, not necessarily home runs.

This isn't so different from my former coach Bob Larsen's advice for becoming a great runner: Put yourself in position to have a good race every race (just hit the ball).  Great runners don't run great and then run terribly, they consistently run well (hit the ball hard every time).  Once in a while they may really hit one and get a PR (home runs aren't the goal, they just happen).

Maybe today's runners didn't play baseball.  Or maybe they did.  I don't think many of them are swinging for the fences.  I think they are simply trying to hit the ball hard, and for whatever reason that's led to a bunch of grand slams of late.  So many that it's almost begun to seem normal.  

But it's not normal.  It's fantastic, it's awesome, and it's a bit mind-blowing but it's so not normal.

We've seen so many out-of-nowhere great performances that when Galen Rupp runs 13:10 in his European opener, it doesn't even get bold font on the LetsRun homepage.  Two years ago it would have been a lead item and the forum might have gone down.  But today it gets one of two responses: a shrug or a hyper-critical analysis of why it wasn't good enough!  What a difference two years makes! 

And I'm not being critical of LetsRun here.  I wouldn't have done anything different.  In fact, despite the fact the anonymous poster I quoted above was probably trolling, the truth is that I felt pretty much the same.  I nodded my head and thought, "Not bad."  Not bad?!  In reality, I should have been ecstatic for him, but it's hard when your expectations are set way too high. 

Galen Rupp is right on track.  He's hitting the ball hard every time out there.  In baseball it can be hard to get excited about a routine single, but when a batter starts stringing a bunch of them together, good things happen. Maybe one of these hits will be a home run.  Maybe not.  But ultimately that won't matter.

If he can continue to smack out performances like these, we'll look up and wonder why we weren't more excited about Galen Rupp's breaking all the American Records.  And the only answer will be that we were too busy watching other people hit home runs, and he just didn't do it with a big enough swing.

By Bryan Green

People are easily distracted.  Sometimes these distractions are convenient, like when we have writer's block and the Olympics are on.  Sometimes we see something irrelevant but simply can't take our eyes off it, like the annoying haircuts on the men's ice dancers.  And other times we get taught to focus on something that simply doesn't matter as much as we make it seem.

When it comes to talent, many of us fall victim to this last type of distraction.  We spend our time and energy wondering, evaluating, and debating how much talent an individual has.  Threads like this German vs Dathan thread at LetsRun attract an inordinate amount of passionate arguments.  It doesn't help that we don't have clear definitions, we use multiple words with multiple meanings, and that our attempts at measuring talent are stuck using proxies.

I think everyone intuitively understands the idea of "talent".  It's natural, it's innate, it's genetic (if you're East African, etc)...you know, either you have it or you don't.  But there are three other aspects of how we view talent that create problems for us.  First, talent is understood to be the key defining factor that enables someone to be the best in the world.  If we assume that others are working just as hard as Bekele, then the only thing that can be separating him is his talent.  Let's just say that's a big assumption.

Second, we associate talent with being a purely physical quality.  It's very rare that someone includes such factors as toughness, pain tolerance, discipline, passion, commitment, and coolness under pressure in a discussion about talent.  Yet the ability to get up and train everyday at an elite level for years and years while staying motivated and committed is surely harder for some than it is for others. 

(We also don't talk about durability in most discussions of talent.  Talent takes on a meaning equivalent to: potential to run a given time.  But isn't the ability to do the necessary training in the first place a factor?  We don't talk about this or mental stuff because it's fluffy, it's intangible, we can't measure it.  But that leads me to the third problem.)

We don't have any foolproof way of measuring talent, either mental or physical.  The only real approach we have is to look at the subset of people who've achieved at an extremely high level and then label them "talented".  This creates its own issues:

• we miss out on anyone who hasn't achieved enough to show up on our radars;
• we can't compare people at different stages in their careers;
• we (usually) can't compare what two athletes have done to achieve their marks;
• and the big one, we can never assume that what they have achieved is what they are capable of achieving.

In the first case, it probably doesn't matter.  There might be 100 other Germans and Dathans out there.  I don't believe there's some Outliers-esque selection bias happening in running.  We may miss out on a few, but I think we're probably identifying much of our top talent.  The other three problems are more relevant, in my opinion. 

Ritz and German are separated by about a decade.  You would think this fact alone would stop people from comparing Ritz's 12:56 with German's 13:25 or 3:55.  But a lot of people confuse talent with ability.  Ability changes over time, based on your years of training.  Yes, 12:56 tells us something about Ritz's talent, that at a minimum, Ritz can reach that level.  And German's 13:25 and 3:55 tell us that, at a minimum, German can achieve those marks.  But that's it, and that's not much.

Even if we try to compare two athletes when they were in high school, we (usually) don't have enough information to make our case.  In some cases, two great runners have come from the same program and can be more or less compared.  But how can we compare Ritz's experience in Michigan to German's in California (or to another favorite, Alan Webb's in Virginia, or soon, Lukas Verzbicas's in Illinois)?  They weren't doing the same workload, workouts, or afterschool work. 

Finally, races and PRs are not measurements of potential.  They may give us some clues, but they are ultimately just indications of progress at any specific point in time.  My PR today may become my lifetime PR, or it may just reflect how good I was on that day in that year.  Even after an athlete retires, their PRs won't necessarily have reflected their potential.  There's no way to know. 

The whole discussion is a distraction.  It's a distraction because there's no substance.  It's irrelevant.

Psychologist Bernard Weiner identified four broad categories to which we can attribute our success (or failure).  These are talent, effort, the difficulty of the task, and luck.  As you can see in the diagram they can be classified by whether they are internal or external, and whether they are constant or variable. 

Talent is internal and constant, it never changes.  Effort is internal and variable, it can be increased or decreased at any given time.  Task difficulty is external and constant, a mile is always a mile, a workout is a workout, and you don't usually get to choose who is in your race.  And luck is external and variable, it changes at random.

There is one more factor that matters, however.  That is what we can call "controllability".  Do you have any control over the attribute and if so, in what way?  Of the four, the only one we have direct control over is our effort (in blue).  You can't control something that doesn't change, so talent and task difficulty are what they are.  And while there are benefits to understanding your task difficulty, those are only realized through focused effort, and so should be attributed there.  As for luck, with apologies to Louis Pasteur, we don't really have any control over that either. 

What this means is that when we focus on talent, we are focusing on something that's internal, constant and out of our control.  And not only that, it can't be measured and it's only part of the equation that results in becoming an elite athlete.  So why do we focus on talent instead of effort?  Why is it so easy to get caught up in the talent distraction?

First of all, talent is equated with destiny.  If you are talented, and you pursue that talent to its extreme, you are living a narrative that many people naturally relate to.  German and Dathan may be great at other things, but they were born to run.  We like that and it turns their stories into dramas.  Will they fulfill their God-given promise?  Or will the story be a tragedy?

The second reason we focus on talent rather than effort is that effort is so opaque.  Runners do different mileage, different workouts, in different environments, with different teammates and different coaches, in different eras, and none of them share that information in a clear, easy to understand way.  Perhaps this will change someday with the advent of some new technologies and incentive structures, but probably not.  How much would Bekele have to be paid to have his every workout inputted and analyzed by this mythical service?

Ultimately, as it stands, debating about an athlete's effort is just as speculative as debating their talent.  Personally, though, I'd rather see us debate effort--specifically training methods, lifestyle choices and decision-making--as there is an opportunity to learn something from the debate. 

I'm not sure that will ever catch on, though.  I think this is one distraction many fans just aren't looking to lose. 

Previous Page  -  Intro  -  26-50  -  11-25  -  Top 10

We've finally made it to the Top 10.  Four people from last year's top 10 didn't make the cut, so let's see who took their places.  Athlete name, last year's rank (and PRs in parentheses).

Bernard Lagat is still the best in the US...but for how much longer?

10.  Bernard Lagat, 6 (800m 1:46.00 - 1500m 3:26.34 - Mile 3:47.28 - 3000m 7:32.43AR - 5000m 12:59.22)

Yes, I lowered his ranking even though he just won a World Indoor title.  I'm afraid of his age.  It doesn't take much to derail a 36 year old, even one as great as Lagat.  His win at World Indoors shows he's still got it compared to most of the world, but with his announced focus on the 5000m, I'm not sure he's the favorite to win any more major outdoor titles.  Not if Bekele's running in them, anyway.

Despite Ritz and Teg having faster PR's over 5000m, Lagat is the clear favorite to win any head-to-head race because of his kick.  You know what would be ironic?  What if Lagat goes out and runs something like 12:53, and Teg goes out the next week and runs 12:55?  That would be hilarious.  Anyway, for the next year or two Lagat is still top dog in the US, but not for much longer than that.

9.  Dathan Ritzenhein, 17 (3000m 7:39.03 - Two Miles 8:11.74 - 5000m 12:56.27AR - 10000m 27:22.28 - Half 60:00 - Marathon 2:10:00)
8.  Galen Rupp, 2 (800m 1:49.87 - 1500m 3:39.14 - Mile 3:56.22 - 3000m 7:44.69 - 5000m 13:14.21 - 10000m 27:33.48)

These two training partners are at different stages in their careers, but their goals are pretty similar (as are their chances of achieving them).  Both have their sights set on Meb's 10000m AR, and it almost looks like the favorite to get it will be the first guy to go for it. 

Each had a phenomenal 2009, with Ritz setting the 5000m AR, finishing 6th in the Berlin 10000m (in a PR), and getting a bronze at the World Half Marathon Champs.  All he has to prove is that he can master the full marathon distance.  If he does, he'll have a resume that's pretty hard to beat.

Rupp absolutely destroyed the collegiate ranks last year, won the USA 10000m title easily (over Ritz), then finished 8th in Berlin.  He's started off the year with a PR at 5000m and a 5th place finish in the 3000m at the World Indoor Champs.  I would be shocked if neither of these two broke Meb's 10000m record this year, and I give the slight nod to Rupp, who I think might have been able to do it last year had he gotten in the right race in June.

2009 Top Ten (2010 rank)

10. Anna Pierce (5) 9. Alan Webb (16) 8. Nick Symmonds (13)  7. Shannon Rowbury (6) 6. Bernard Lagat (10) 5. Ryan Hall (11) 4. Kara Goucher (12) 3. Shalane Flanagan (3) 2. Galen Rupp (8) 1. Jenny Barringer (1) Watch Ryan Hall burn me by winning Boston now that I've bumped him from the top 10.  Trust me, though, I'll be ecstatic if he does. The next most likely person to burn me on this ranking? Nick Symmonds, because anyone can win a major 800m.  The event is just that fluky.  With that said, there are no global championships this year and by 2011, I think we may be talking just as much about Wheating winning a major 800m medal as Symmonds.

7.  German Fernandez, 11 (1500m 3:39.00 - Mile 3:55.02 - 3000m 7:47.97 - 5000m 13:25.46)

If there's one runner who can equal Alan Webb for an awe inspiring all-or-nothing quality to his performances, it's German Fernandez.  When he's on, he's a revelation.  He doesn't just win, but he dictates the race and wins on his own terms.  Last year he ran a solo 3:55.02 to set an NCAA record, easily won USA JR XC over Derrick, won the NCAA Outdoor 1500m despite leading the entire race, and then set the AJR for 5000m in finishing 5th at the USA Outdoor meet.  He just makes it all look so easy.

Except when he doesn't.  He's had his share of troubles, injuries and an iron deficiency, that have kept him from training consistently and running up to his potential.  He DNF'd NCAA XC his freshman year, missed time with a stress reaction in track, struggled through XC last year and then turned his ankle at the Big 12 Champs in indoor track.  His future seems so bright yet so unpredictable.

There are a couple things that have to be said, however.  We haven't seen a 1500m/5000m talent like him in a long time, maybe ever.  But he's still not a favorite to win either race at the NCAA level, despite his pulling off the 1500m victory last year.  Will he win more NCAA titles?  Surely.  But he's less of a lock than the other collegiates ahead of him.

6.  Shannon Rowbury, 7 (800m 2:00.94 - 1500m 4:00.33 - Mile 4:20.34 - 3000m 8:47.18 - 5000m 15:12.95)
5.  Anna Pierce, 10 (800m 1:58.80 - 1500m 3:59.38 - 3000m 8:58.07 - Steeple 9:22.76 - 5000m 15:53.36)

For various reasons I'm always a little bearish about Shannon Rowbury.  Maybe I'm just too focused on PRs and not enough on racing instincts, because I haven't really come to terms with the fact that she is the best 1500m runner in the US.  I had her ranked all over the place as I started putting this list together, and finally settled on 6th because of her bronze in Berlin last year.

One spot ahead of her is Pierce.  Not only did she finish 4th at World Indoors this year, but she didn't lose a single race over 800m last year, she had the 10th fastest time in the world for 800m and the 4th fastest over 1500m, and she still is the nation's #2 steepler (should she ever go back to it).  There aren't enough good things to say about her.

Once again, Wheating was .01 away from an NCAA title.

4.  Andrew Wheating, 12 (800m 1:45.03 - 1500m 3:38.60 - Mile 3:58.16)

I think Andrew Wheating's NCAA Indoor meet was instructive as to where he stands in the US today.  He anchored his DMR team to a victory, outkicking a 1:48/3:35 guy and a host of other top milers.  He then lost the 800m by .01 seconds because he A) always races from the back and has only one strategy and B) didn't go all out because he thought he had it won.  

What we learned is that Wheating is the best overall middle-distance runner in the NCAA, but he's still inexperienced.  He's got the killer instinct, but only when he's running from behind.  This will change though.  He learned a great lesson in Fayetteville.  You can bet Robby Andrews won't be sneaking up on him again, and you can bet that 1:44 is only a few outdoor races away.  He's still the major favorite to win NCAA Outdoors, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 1:44/3:35 either.  I think we're about to see the "Summer of Wheating".  Prepare to be amazed.

3.  Shalane Flanagan, 3 (1500m 4:05.86 - 3000m 8:33.35iAR - 5000m 14:44.80AR - 10000m 30:22.22 - Half 69:41)

Last year Flanagan struggled.  Expectations were high following her 10000m bronze in Beijing, but she finished a disappointing 2nd at the USA Outdoors and 14th in Berlin.  There was speculation as to whether it was a mistake to change coaches, and she kind of disappeared after the World Champs, ending her season early.

She came back strong this winter by running a 69:41 debut half marathon--6th all-time by an American--in what appeared to be a tempo effort.  She then destroyed a very strong field at USA XC and finished 12th at World XC.  She looks poised for a great summer, but what's most interesting is her planned marathon debut.  She's got the pedigree and track times to warrant very high expectations and if she can follow in Kastor's footsteps, she may be the next great American marathoner.

2.  Lisa Koll, 16 (Mile 4:41.37 - 3000m 8:56.09 - 5000m 15:29.65 - 10000m 31:18.07)

At the NCAA Indoor meet, Lisa Koll was outkicked in the last lap of the 3000m by Angela Bizzarri.  So why is she 14 spots higher?  Because she just rewrote the record books in the NCAA 10000m.

Two years ago, Koll ran 32:11.  She did that with a 5k PR in the 15:50s.  Last Friday she ran 31:18.07, breaking Kipyego's record by 7 seconds and putting her to number 6 on the all-time US performers list.  The time is only half the story though.  I was at this race and watched it with TnF News's Sieg Lindstrom.  We marveled at how Koll went out in 15:52--leading every lap from the gun-- and then rolled off a string of 74.2's that were simply mechanical.  Her 15:26 last 5k was faster than her PB and faster than any current collegiate runner has ever run in an open 5000 meters.  And she never looked like she was overextended.

She's also arriving at the perfect time to be a 10k runner.  Flanagan, Goucher and Begley are all equal to or stronger than her, but they are all starting to pursue careers on the roads.  For the next few years, the door is open to win a number of US titles in the 5 and 10.

As for this year, there's nobody in the NCAA who can run with her in the 10000m.  And if she doubles at NCAA Outdoors?  Bizzarri outkicked her to deny her the 5k/3k double indoors, but the 10/5 is more in her wheelhouse.  Honestly, I'm not sure I'd bet on Bizzarri, even if she's running fresh.

With Pierce no longer breathing down her back, Barringer owns the steeple.

1.  Jenny Barringer, 1 (800m 2:02.56 - 1500m 3:59.90 - 3000m 8:42.03 - Steeple 9:12.50 - 5000m 15:01.70)

Here's the thing.  Even without collegiate eligibility, you have to put Barringer in the top spot.  She's the AR holder for the steeplechase, and Pierce, her only real competition, is busy kicking arse in the middle distances.  She's ranked 8th all-time in the world for the steeple, and her PR's indicate that she's capable of running close to the world record in the event.  If she decides to enter other events, she's one of the top milers or 5000m runners in the country as well.

Right now she's the only US runner with a legit shot at a world record.  She's as good a bet as anyone to win a world title or medal.  She's got practically no competition in the steeple, and she's got the range to possibly win titles both up and down from her event.  She's young.  She's a workhorse.  She's the complete package.  She's (still) the most valuable runner in the US today.

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Has Sammy Wanjiru changed the conventional template for running a championship marathon?

The question must be asked after yesterday's world championship marathon emulated Wanjiru's audacious run to Olympic gold last year in Beijing with Abel Kirui and his Kenyan teammates taking control of the race at breakneck speed from start to finish.

Normally I don't like to talk about the people who are not at a championships, especially marathoners who opt for the big city, big money marathons over testing themselves against the world's best. But Steve Moneghetti declared Wanjiru's the greatest marathon run ever last August and now, 12 months later, Kirui has followed the same pattern to a world championships gold medal.

Statistically, the case is compelling. Kirui's winning time yesterday _ two hours six minutes 54 seconds _ is the second fastest men's championships time ever. The fastest is Wanjiru's 2:06:32 on the hot streets of Beijing.

Kirui broke the previous championship record set by Jaouad Gharib in Paris in 2003 by almost two minutes. Behind Kirui, three others broke two hours nine minutes _ silver medallist Emannuel Mutai of Kenya, bronze medallist Tsegay Kebede of Ethiopia and Robert Cheruiyot of Kenya. Six men _ two more than yesterday _ ran sub-2:10 in Paris 2003, but only two, Gharib and silver medallist Julio Rey of Spain, wen under 2:09.

Kirui, Mutai and Cheruiyout, helped by a second Ethiopian, Deriba Merga, carried the lion's share of the pacing load in Berlin. Merga was also a central figure for most of the Olympic marathon. How he must hate his teammate Kebede. In Beijing he passed Merga on the track to grab the bronze; here he came through him in the last 5k, though Merga was in such a bad way by then that he failed to finish.

Merga showed ahead at the first two 5k splits, but from then on it was either Kirui or Mutai, and from 30k on, Kirui.

It is exciting to think that two championships in a row have now brought a men's race run in exhilarating manner. No doubt we will see a return to conservatism sometime in the future, but for the moment let's just sit back and relish this mad, mad new world order.

Scott Westcott got burned following the early pace, but he helped Martin Dent, Andrew Letherby and Mark Tucker to pack together through 30k as Australia finished eighth of 15 teams in the marathon World Cup. With top 8s hard as ever to come by at the world champs, let's not overlook this one.

Like Abel Kirui, Steve Hooker was committed to a course of action which would lead either to death, or to glory. Like Kirui, his boldness was rewarded with a gold medal in the pole vault.

Leading in to Berlin, Hooker's ambition was to secure a world championships medal to go with his Olympic gold. But last Monday week, he suffered a grade one strain to a groin muscle. Then commenced a race against time to get fit.

It looked all over when Hooker qualified with one jump at 5.65 on Thursday. He crashed to the bag and could barely walk after that effort. The soreness settled, and he embarked on an audacious strategy of taking only one jump in the final in the hope that would suffice for a medal.

Hooker came in at 5.85. He all but cleared the height, just tickling the bar off as he went over. He was shattered but, to his surprise, found enough energy to take one more at the next height of 5.90. to a mighty roar, he cleared it and it stood up for gold.

Two jumps for a world championships gold medal. It has been done only once before by _ guess who? _ Sergey Bubka, in Rome in 1987.

ends


 

Len Johnson was The Melbourne Age athletics writer for over 20 years, covering five Olympics, 10 world championships and five Commonwealth Games. He is the author of The Landy Era, From Nowhere to the Top of the World, and a former national class distance runner (2.19.32 marathon) who trained with Chris Wardlaw and Robert de Castella.