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Let's get this party started with a few breakthrough performers.  Athletes are listed with their name and ranking from last year (with PRs in parentheses).

In high school, Trafeh beat Galen Rupp at the Foot Locker West Regionals.

50.  Mohamed Trafeh, NR (3000m 7:58.59 - 5000m 13:51.03 - 10k road 29:16 - 15k road 42:58 - half marathon 1:00:39)

Mo Trafeh is an enigma.  A superstar in high school, he looked destined to become a great 5k/10k guy in college.  Instead he tried to be a miler.  He never had the career I thought he was destined for, and then he disappeared for a while before getting his US citizenship, spending time in Morocco and then popping up on the road race circuit. 

He ran 29:16 to win the Cow Harbor 10k, then 59:01 for 2nd in the US 20k Champs last year.  He then ran 62:11 for a half marathon in Marrakech this January.  But he makes this list because of his smokin' 42:58 Gate River Run victory in Jacksonville, the 4th fastest time ever on that course (just 10 seconds off Meb's best time and 54 seconds ahead of 2nd place Tim Nelson).  He then ran 1:00:39 for #3 all-time on the US half-marathon list.  He looks poised to do something really special this summer.  Or he could disappear completely for a couple more years and return a steeplechaser.  Nothing would surprise me, honestly.

49.  Desiree Davila, NR (3000m 8:51.08 - 5000m 16:02.15 - 10000m 32:25.78 - half 72:10 - marathon 2:27:53)
48.  Brett Gotcher, NR (5000m 13:56.40 - 10000m 28:27.79 - half 62:09 - marathon 2:10:36)

These two marathoners snuck onto this list with very big but very different performances this winter.  Davila brings Hanson-Brooks to the top 50 by steadily improving her times over the past few years, culminating in a 2:27:53 at the World Championships last year (just one spot behind much ballyhooed Kara Goucher).  But it was her smokin' fast 3k that has me excited.  She qualified for the World Indoor Championships final and ran 8:51, which will hopefully translate to better times on the roads later this year.

Gotcher is like Ryan Hall lite.  He was good but not great on the track, but seems to have found his niche on the roads.  He won the US 20k Championships in New Haven last year (over Trafeh), but it was his debut marathon in Houston (2:10:36) this January that earned him this spot.  The fourth fastest debut ever, he has raised the bar for a large group of US distance runners viewing the marathon as the next logical step in their career progression.

47.  Bridget Franek, NR (3000m 9:10.04 - Steeple 9:36.74 - 5000m 15:56.76)

Barring a surprise newcomer (Shelby Greany?), Franek will be a co-favorite to win the NCAA steeplechase this year.  Her 9:36 at the NCAAs was a big PR, and she finished fourth at US Outdoors as well.  The Penn State senior benefits from the graduations of Jenny Barringer and Nicole Bush, but does have big competition in UW's Mel Lawrence for the NCAA title.

Could Price be more suited to the 600 meters?

46.  Chanelle Price, 15 (800m 2:01.61 - 1000m 2:42.71 - Mile 4:46.87)

Price has won a couple DMR titles, but hasn't looked like the future 800m champion she projected to be in high school.  In fact, she reminds me of Michael Granville, a superstar high schooler who was more suited for the 600 than the 400 or 800.  The 800m is stacked in both college and pros, so I should have ranked her in the high 20s last year, making this drop a little smaller than it appears to be. 

45.  Khadevis Robinson, 26 (600m 1:15.23 - 800m 1:43.68 - 1500m 3:45.36)

He still has a shot at winning a title or two, and he can probably keep making world teams, but the torch has officially been passed to Nick Symmonds.

44.  Molly Huddle, NR (3000m 8:58.51 - 5000m 15:17.13 - 10000m 31:27.12)
43.  Tim Nelson, 49 (3000m 7:48.87 - 5000m 13:24.87 - 10000m 27:36.99 - Half 62:11)

Huddle disappeared for a couple years, despite winning some road races around the country.  She's back this year, however, with a near PB 15:20 solo effort indoors, followed by a solid 2nd place finish to Flanagan at USA XC.  She looks like she may be ready to make the leap.

Nelson just got thrashed by Trafeh at the Gate River Run, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt after his consistent 2009 that saw him run 27:36 and qualify for Berlin.  He's a mainstay on the roads (62:11 half this January) and will hopefully drop some bombs this summer on the track.

42.  Morgan Uceny, NR (800m 2:00.01 - 1000m 2:40.07 - 1500m 4:06.93)

Uceny gets my Memorial Rob Myers spot on the ranking list.  Last year I put Myers on the list instead of Leonel Manzano because he wins indoor titles and he has better PR's than most people realize.  He's not on this list this year because, well, he probably shouldn't have been in the first place. 

You could argue Uceny doesn't belong on this list.  Is she really going to beat Pierce, Rowbury, Wurth-Thomas, and Vessey?  It's entirely possible she won't even make top three.  With that said, she did hold off Rowbury to take the US Indoor 1500m title this year (4:19.46 at altitude) and she has legit PR's.  I don't think she gets the attention she deserves, but I could equally see her passing on this place to another underappreciated runner next year.  

When his running career is over, Jager plans to play Sgt. Elias in the remake of Platoon.

41.  Chris Solinsky, 28 (1500m 3:37.27 - Mile 3:55.75 - 3000m 7:36.90 - 5000m 13:12.24)
40.  Evan Jager, NR (800m 1:50.1 - 1500m 3:38.33 - Mile 3:54.35 - 3000m 7:41.78 - 5000m 13:22.18)

Some of you are probably saying, "What? Solinsky and Jager #40 and 41?!"  That's right.  It's not that they aren't fantastic, it's that they're not fantastic enough.  They are essentially 5k runners in a country that has Lagat, Ritz, and Teg ahead of them, and Rupp, Chris Derrick and German Fernandez all gaining fast.  Despite their amazing PR's, how can you rank them higher?

39.  Matt Centrowitz, NR (800m 1:51.57 - 1500m 3:36.92 - Mile 3:57.92 - 3000m 7:55.90 - 5000m 13:49.15)
38.  Mac Fleet, NR (800m 1:50.31 - 1500m 3:47.44 - Mile 3:57.70)

Centrowitz ran the fastest 1500m time in NCAAs last year but hurt his foot prior to NCAA Outdoors and didn't place.  Fleet, just a freshman this year, has already run 3:57 indoors and took 2nd in the NCAA Indoor mile with a big finish.

But these two Oregon milers are in a weird spot.  They're probably the 2nd and 3rd best milers on their own team behind Wheating, but Wheating won't run it at a championship.  They can't be called the favorite in the NCAA either because of Emanuel, Ulrey, and German Fernandez.  But they are both young, have great pedigree, and most importantly they have NCAA eligibility for a couple years, which increases their rankings considerably.

37.  Alysia Johnson, NR (800m 1:59.29)

Until World Indoors, Johnson was "that girl who always wears a flower in her hair".  Now she's "that girl who wore a flower in her hair while winning a bronze medal."  I would love to rank her higher than this but despite her medal she's got only one race (800m), she was inconsistent (nonexistent?) last year, and she's got a lot of fast women she'll have to contend with to even win a US title.  

36.  Mel Lawrence, NR (3000m 9:08.50 - Steeple 9:40.98 - 5000m 15:50.36)

Bridget Franek (#47) has the top returning time, but Mel was the top returning finisher from last year's NCAA Outdoor steeplechase.  The UW sophomore is a legitimate top 5 in the US, and has a couple years of eligibility left as well.  I expect her to win the NCAA steeple championship this year, and would be shocked if she graduated without at least one title.

35.  Brenda Martinez, NR (800m 2:00.85 - 1500m 4:09.52 - Mile 4:39.58 - 3000m 9:17.80)
34.  Lacey Cramer, 21 (800m 2:03.01 - 1500m 4:17.10)
33.  Phoebe Wright, NR (800m 2:01.12 - 1500m 4:24.28 - Mile 4:43.50)

When you add Price (#45) and LaTavia Thomas of LSU to these three women, the 800m becomes a giant hodgepodge of talent and it's so hard to predict who will come out on top.  I actually think Martinez will focus on the 1500m (where she'll be up against British NCAA Indoor champ Charlotte Browning, amongst others), taking her partially out of the equation.  Wright, the 2010 NCAA Indoor champ, is the favorite to repeat outdoors.  With that said, Cramer has proved she can win it before and she has two more years of eligibility after this year.

Just another cool down for America's top steepler.

32.  Josh McAdams, 30 (Mile 4:00.59 - 3000m 7:55.98 - Steeple 8:21.36)

I'm just going to stick with what I wrote last year.  My feelings haven't changed a bit:

"[McAdams] is kind of like the US running equivalent to actor Seth Green.  He's got one character he can play (the steeple), he plays it in every performance, and he is in seemingly everything.  That's because the steepler is the running equivalent to the character actor in Hollywood: you can make for yourself a long, solid career even if you've got only one "character" you can play.  I mean, imagine Seth Green playing an action hero in a big budget movie and you pretty much get a glimpse of what it would be like to see Josh McAdams run an elite 5k.  But make him the smartass sidekick in a solid cast and he'll never disappoint."

31.  Deena Kastor, 29 (3000m 8:42.59 - 5000m 14:51.62 - 10000m 30:50.32 - Half 67:35 - Marathon 2:19:36AR)

She's a year older but a year healthier.  Her recent 69:43 for half marathon in Tempe proves that she's still as good as anyone on the roads, and that's where all the money is anyway.  I don't think she'll be making any more runs at the AR, but she could certainly continue to place at major marathons for the next couple years.

30.  Anthony Famiglietti, 14 (1500m 3:35.83 - Mile 3:55.71 - 3000m 7:41.27 - Steeple 8:17.34 - 5000m 13:11.93 - 10000m 27:37.74)

Last year Fam skipped the steeple in favor of the 5k and 10k, and didn't achieve the goals he'd set in those events (though in his defense they were lofty).  This year he's focused on the roads, and looking to run a debut marathon.  I'm not sure if he'll ever go back to the steeple, and if that's the case, he loses a lot of his value in these rankings.

I argued last year that Fam is the Johnny Depp of US Distance Running, the one athlete who decides what he wants to do not based on what will guarantee to be a blockbuster, but based on whatever script he finds interesting at the time.  Let's hope his foray onto the roads (where he has had some success, winning Gate River last year, for example) turns out to be more of a Captain Jack Sparrow than an Inspector Frederick Abberline.

29.  Christin Wurth-Thomas, NR (800m 1:59.35 - 1500m 3:59.98 - Mile 4:27.18 - 3000m 8:54.97 - 5000m 15:28.04)

I didn't have Wurth-Thomas rated last year.  She completely caught me by surprise.  This year she takes Erin Donohue's spot as the gritty overachiever.  Then again, that's what happens when you drop your PR's by 2 seconds in the 800m and 5 seconds in the 1500m, all while looking like your machine is running without lubrication.  The crazy thing is she's barely in the top three women in the US in both events despite her crazy fast times.  We'll see if Wurth-Thomas had a career year last year or if there's more in the tank.  For now, this is the highest I can rank her.

Ulrey finally won his first NCAA title, but can he win the big one - the NCAA Outdoor 1500m?

28.  Dorian Ulrey, 31 (800m 1:48.46 - 1000m 2:21.56 - 1500m 3:35.23 - Mile 3:57.60 - 3000m 7:50.86)

I don't know why I had Ulrey ranked so high last year when he hadn't won anything yet.  Despite qualifying for Berlin and making the final and then taking home the NCAA Indoor 3000m title this year, I can't justify ranking him any higher than this.  We saw in the anchor leg of the DMR that he didn't have the kick to beat Wheating (or the courage to try and break him).  And when we get to NCAA Outdoors there won't be any 3k for him to run.  He may...may...be the top miler in the NCAA right now, but he'll have to face a beastly 1500m field, and if I have to wager on any individual athlete or a beastly field, I'll always go with the beastly field.

27.  Lukas Verzbicas, 48 (3000m 8:21.32 - Two Miles 8:53.98 - 5000m 14:18.42i)
26.  Chelsey Sveinsson, NR (800m 2:08.46 - 1500m 4:18.13 - Mile 4:40.24 - Two Miles 10:04.85)

These are the only two high schoolers in my top 50 this year.  Verzbicas may burn me here in two ways.  First, I'm not certain he will compete as an American, since he was born in Lithuania.  With that said, he's 17 years old so he can make still make that choice.  Second, he's a phenomenal triathlete, and he may choose to pursue that sport instead.  As a sophomore Foot Locker Cross Country Champion, however, he's gotta be on this list.

As for Sveinsson, well, I'm just enamored with her.  She ran 10:04 for two miles as a sophomore, and almost won Foot Locker as a junior.  She broke away and had the race in hand before Goethals unleashed a furious kick to steal victory.  As good as Hasay was in high school, Sveinsson may be better.  She's still got two more outdoor seasons of track to prove it.  And yes, I'd absolutely trade her straight up for anyone above her on this list.

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By Bryan Green

It's been an interesting first couple weeks in the new year.  Deena Kastor came back with a sub-70 half marathon in Arizona, while Ryan Hall got crushed by Simon Bairu on the same course, running only 64 and change.  There was an announcement that the state of Oregon was considering eliminating team qualifying for state meet cross country.  (Say what?!  Dyestat covered the news here.)  Indoor track kicked off with the New Balance Indoor meet and Haile Gebrselassie went for another world record at the Dubai Marathon but failed because he slept on his stomach.  (Seriously, get that man a Snoogle already!)

We were also treated to two fine debuts one week ago, with Shalane Flanagan running her much anticipated first half-marathon and Brett Gotcher's surprisingly fast debut for the full marathon.  (We should also mention the solid debuts by Brent Vaughn and Tim Nelson in the half marathon, who ran 62:04 and 62:11, respectively.)

Shalane won her race in a course record 1:09:41, which was good enough to put her 6th on the US all-time list for the distance.  She controlled the race from the beginning and there was little doubt as to the final outcome.  As she said after the race, "Yeah, I was thinking, or guessing I would run 1:10, and that would be very comfortable for me. To dip under 1:10, I think, is a solid performance."

Gotcher finished 7th in a field of solid foreigners, running a surprise 2:10:36.  He ran much of the race alone, and was on pace for sub-2:10 until the final two miles.  Still, his time is good enough for the 4th fastest debut marathon by an American and it puts him 27th on the US all-time list.  It's also just six seconds slower than Frank Shorter's personal best!

As he says in this interview, however, he's not entirely satisfied with the time: "Late in the race, I thought I was going to run a lot faster. Even though I am really happy and excited with my time, there is still a bittersweet feeling that I can go out and run 2:09 or maybe even under 2:09 on a really amazing day." 

So we have two performances, both slower than what the athletes felt they were capable of, and yet because they were debuts, they've gathered quite a lot of attention.  What is it about debuts that make us ooh and ahh over them?  After all, doesn't every athlete have at least 5 or 10 debuts in their career?

The fact is, we're only really concerned with two types of debuts: the Superstar Debut and the Overachiever Debut.  The Superstar Debut matters because the athlete has already proven herself over the course of her career at other distances, and built up an expectation of excellence.  Most debuts we remember are Superstar Debuts.  They are recognized by their publicly announced date, fervent debate as to what to expect, and generally, a slight feeling of letdown after the fact.  Flanagan's debut in Houston is a great example of this.

The Overachiever Debut comes about a different way.  The athlete is usually known or recognized in a general sense, but does not have high expectations placed on his debut performance going into it.  He then goes out and runs a time nobody thought possible.  It's not the case that he has actually overachieved, of course, as that would imply he performed better than he was actually capable and that's impossible.  But the fact that he surpassed expectations so greatly makes his debut something to celebrate.  Brett Gotcher's marathon provides us with a fantastic example of this.

Of course, there is also the extremely rare Superstar Overachiever Debut, in which everyone excitedly awaits the performance and yet the athlete still manages to exceed expectations.  A couple examples of this include Ryan Hall's 59:43 AR half marathon debut and Alan Webb's 27:34 10k debut in which he outkicked Dathan Ritzenhein.  I'd probably include German Fernandez's 3:56.5 indoor mile debut as well.  These performances were so stunning that they completely shifted expectations of what we thought the athlete was capable of in the future.  Many of us were hoping to see this from Shalane, but she opted to play it safe (hence the slight feeling of letdown).

For fun, I put together my Top 10 US Debuts of the past decade.  These were the races that made me sit up and say, "Wow".

What makes these debuts so fun, of course, is that they are pretty rare.  There are very few opportunities for big debuts on the track, since everyone usually enters their first 5k or 10k in a low-key meet.  It's incredibly rare for a top athlete like Leonel Manzano to go his entire career never having run a 5k, or Matt Tegenkamp never succumbing to the 10k's siren call.  (Will they ever move up?)  We pretty much have to settle for college freshmen going for it at Stanford, so here's to hoping Jordan Hasay does something special this year.

The rest of the hullabaloo, however, is largely based on a misconception, I believe.  There's a general assumption that no matter how fast an athlete runs in their debut, they'll run significantly faster once they've got a few races under their belts.  A middle distance runner stepping up to 10k isn't supposed to nail it on his first try, and neither is a track athlete stepping up to the half or the full marathon.  As such, a blazing fast debut is supposed to signify a bright future, one filled with further improvement.

But in the big picture, spectacular debuts ultimately mean very little.  A letsrun reader, malmo, posted the list of top US marathon debuts on a forum thread and it's amazing what it shows.  Of the 39 he lists, 20 of them also serve as the individual's personal best.  Half of the fastest debutantes never improved!  That number is really surprising on the face of it.  It seems to go against the common belief about debuts, especially at distances like the full marathon.

I don't have the data for the 10k or half marathon, but I would be interested to see what it says.  I'm pretty sure Ryan Hall's 28:07 10k PR was run in his debut, and Anthony Famiglietti's 27:37 10k debut is still his PR.  Of course, neither of these guys have focused on the 10k since then, so we have to be careful in reading too much into this.  But on a lesser note, it still took five years before Dathan Ritzenhein was able to lower his 27:38.5 debut 10k time by more than four seconds.  I know I expected much more much sooner, simply because it was his debut.

I think the most we can say is big improvement after a fast debut simply isn't a given.  Not only does one have to continue to step up their training, they have to now perform with the weight of increased expectations.  Not everybody can live up to it and not everybody is willing to dedicate themselves to the distance long enough to do it.  Here's to hoping that Shalane and Brett are able to do so.

Images: Photorun.net