By Bryan Green

Last year when I wrote my 2009 NCAA Indoor Preview, I highlighted some of the records that went down during the indoor season and then wrote the following paragraph:

Then there's the quantity of fast times being run.  I took a look at the qualifying times for all events and saw an amazing statistic.  In field events, there were an average of 5.7 automatic qualifiers per event.  In sprints, there were only 4.0 autos, on average.  In the distance events, however, there were on average 9.2 auto qualifying marks per event, with an amazing 27 auto marks in the DMRs (which is the best indication for overall middle-distance strength).  And another 24 marks were within one second of the qualifiers.  And I didn't count anyone not entered in a race, like Fernandez and Rupp in the mile.  This is very much the result of so many races being run at the University of Washington and Notre Dame, which have large, fast tracks beneficial to distance runners.  But it's also likely the result of a general rise in the quality of distance running in the NCAA.

This year was even more impressive.  Field events saw an average of 7.1 auto qualifiers, sprints 4.6, and distances 7.0 based on this year's standards.  That's despite the fact that many standards were raised this year, including faster times in both DMRs, both miles, the women's 3000m, and the men's 60m, as well as tougher qualifiers in the women's long jump, pole vault, and pentathlon.  When last year's times are used instead of this year's, those numbers change to 7.6 for field, 5.1 for sprints, and 8.9 for distances.  And this year, there were 34 athletes within one second of the auto qualifier in the distances!

Average Auto-Qualifiers by Events (using '09 standards)

	2009	2010	Y/Y Change
Field	5.7	7.6	+33%
Sprints	4.0	5.1	+28%
Distances	9.2	8.9	-3%
Distance athletes +1 sec	24	34	+42%

As the table above shows, the overall quality in the NCAA continues to increase.  In the field events, the women's pole vault continues to improve, as well as men's and women's long jumps.  On the distance side, the slight decline is probably due to a number of teams qualifying last year in the DMR under questionable circumstances at the Notre Dame Invitational (only 10 ran sub-9:34 this year, as opposed to 27 last year, despite our glut of sub-4 milers).  All things considered, though, even the distances seem to have improved slightly this year. 

Before I get into the actual events, there are five questions I'll have in mind as I watch the meet this weekend:

Can anyone top Wheating?  Despite missing the fall due to injury, he opened with a smokin' 1:46.36 800m and followed it up with a dominant 3:58 mile.  The 2008 Olympic qualifier and reigning NCAA Outdoor 800m champ, it's hard to imagine anyone beating him.  With that said, he does tend to save it until the last possible moment to go for the win, and that could set him up for disappointment.  Similarly, it'll be interesting to see what he can do if he's anchoring the DMR for Oregon.  A big performance this weekend will solidify his status as the premiere talent in the NCAAs.

Can an Aussie win a title?  There are two very good possibilities in David McNeill and Ryan Foster.  Neither can be considered the favorite, despite McNeill's having the top times in both the 3000m and 5000m this season.  That's because he'll be facing Sam Chelanga (13:18i/27:28/NCAA XC champ last year) in the 5000m and a loaded field in the 3000m.  Foster has the unenviable task of trying to beat Andrew Wheating and a bunch of young upstarts (Greer, Mellon, Andrews) who didn't get the memo that running 1:47 isn't an easy thing to do.  I'd say the chances are about 33% that Australia takes home a title this weekend.

Can a freshman win a distance title?  I thought last year's freshman crop was amazing, but this year's might actually be stronger, at least in the middle distances.  With Rupp, Barringer and Kipyego running last year, there was little hope for a freshman to sneak a title, but Lacey Cramer managed to do it in the 800m.  This year, there are some stud middle distance freshman who just might have a chance.  Mac Fleet and Elijah Greer are ranked top-3 in the mile and 800m, respectively, for Oregon, as is Jordan Hasay in the mile (she's also entered in the 3000m).  In the 800m, we also have Robby Andrews of Virginia and Zach Mellon of Wisconsin.  It's unlikely any of them will end up atop the podium, but maybe they can surpass the total distance points earned by last year's freshmen (35, DMRs not included).

Bizzarri or Koll?  Bizzarri is the darling of the NCAA, having won the NCAA Outdoor 5000m, finished 3rd at the USATF Championships in the 5000m, and then somehow snuck a victory at the NCAA Cross Country Championships when Barringer and Kuijken faltered.  Her times aren't that impressive, but she always finds a way to win.  Koll had a down year last year due to injury, but is the American Collegiate 10000m record holder (32:11) and has run some smokin' fast times this season (8:56/15:29), both of which are much faster than Bizzarri's (or anyone else in the field's) personal bests.

Can UCLA win a DMR title?  Back in 1999, UCLA entered the NCAA Indoors with an unheralded team.  Jess Strutzel and Michael Granville were top 800 meter runners, and Mark Hauser was a 4-minute miler, so they were quite good.  But everybody was talking about Stanford and Arkansas.  Nobody gave Hauser much of a chance to hang on against the likes of Seneca Lassiter (Arkansas) or Michael Stember (Stanford) on the anchor.  They went on to set a then American Record 9:33.17 in the event.  This year's squad features a couple solid 800m guys (Cory Primm, Scott Crawford) and an unheralded 4-minute miler (Marlon Patterson) and they've already run faster than that 1999 squad ever did.  Could this be the year they rewrite history?

Now let's get to the events!

Women's 800m 

Top Returner:  Lacey Cramer, BYU (1st place)
Fastest Qualifier:  Phoebe Wright, Tennessee (2:01.47)
Favorite:  Phoebe Wright (2009 indoor runner-up, #1 qualifying time)
Other Notables:  LaTavia Thomas, LSU (2008 indoor champ), Chanelle Price, Tennessee (2:01 in high school)
Darkhorse:  Lea Wallace, Sacramento State (coached by my friend Scott Abbott, I'm pulling for Wallace or teammate Renisha Robinson!)
Did you know?  Phoebe Wright finished 3rd at USATF's last year but couldn't get the qualifying time to go to Berlin.

Prediction:  I think Wright is due for a big win.  She's been very good for a couple years, but hasn't put it all together on the right day.  This time she will.  Wright, Cramer, Beckwith, Thomas.

Men's 800m 

Top Returner:  Andrew Wheating, Oregon (2nd)
Fastest Qualifier:  Andrew Wheating (1:46.36)
Favorite:  Andrew Wheating (far and away)
Other Notables:  Ryan Foster, Penn State (8th outdoors, #2 qualifier), Chris Gowell (4th outdoors), Elijah Greer, Oregon (freshman is #3 qualifier, 1:47.33)
Darkhorse:  Robby Andrews, Virginia (the kid has a stellar kick, so hopefully he'll be within striking range)
Did you know?  Penn State qualified four men in the 800 meters!  That's nuts!

Prediction:  Wheating runs away with 200m to go.  Andrews, Foster and Greer both finish well, with freshmen taking tons of points in this event.  Wheating, Andrews, Foster, Greer.

Women's mile

Top Returner:  Pilar McShine, Florida State (4th)
Fastest Qualifier:  Charlotte Browning, Florida (4:31.24)
Favorite:  Charlotte Browning (the senior is 3 seconds faster than the #2 qualifier this year)
Other Notables:  Jordan Hasay, Oregon (frosh phenom, #3 qualifier), 
Darkhorse:  Nicole Schappert, Villanova (she'll be dangerous if she's got any more of that cross country mojo left from last year)
Did you know?  Charlotte Browning finished 8th at last year's indoor meet, and is the #2 returner behind FSU's McShine.

Prediction: Last year, I didn't believe Hasay would win her first NCAA title as a freshman (unless it was a DMR).  But this race is lining up well for her.  I think she's going to take the title.  McShine, Browning and Follett in 2nd through 4th, respectively.

Men's mile

Top Returner:  Lee Emanuel, New Mexico (1st)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lee Emanuel (3:57.62)
Favorite:  Lee Emanuel (do you really want to bet against a 25 year-old returning champion and #1 qualifier?)
Other Notables:  Mac Fleet, Oregon (frosh phenom, #2 qualifier), A.J. Acosta, Oregon (footlocker champ, 3:58), Jeff See, Ohio State (8th outdoors)
Darkhorse:  Ben Blankenship, Minnesota (he's young, sub-3:58, and won the Big 10)
Did you know?  22 men broke the 4-minute barrier this year indoors, but only 16 of them entered in the mile at NCAAs.  Notables who didn't enter the mile include Wheating, Dorian Ulrey (Arkansas), and Craig Miller (Wisconsin).

Prediction: Last year Emanuel ran away with the race from 600m out.  This year, he'll try to do that again, but he won't break away and it'll be a struggle to the end.  His experience will win out, however, and Emanuel will repeat as champion.  Following him will be See, Blankenship, and Fleet.

Women's 3000m 

Top Returner:  Angela Bizzarri, Illinois (4th)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lisa Koll, Iowa State (8:56.09)
Favorite:  Angela Bizzarri (but only because Koll is entered in the 5000m the night before)
Other Notables:  Sheila Reid, Villanova (#2 qualifier, 9:04.65); Bridget Franek, Penn State and Nicole Blood, Oregon (perennial NCAA scorers); Jordan Hasay (frosh phenom)
Darkhorse:  Marie Lawrence, Washington (known as a steepler, she has run well of late and could surprise)
Did you know?  This is my race of the meet.  I think it's 50/50 between Bizzarri and Koll, and there are a few other ladies plenty talented enough to sneak a victory.

Prediction: Koll tries to run away with it, but Bizzarri holds on and takes her third NCAA title.  Nicole Blood and Sheila Reid eat up Koll in the last lap and finish in that order.

Men's 3000m 

Top Returner:  Michael Coe, California (2nd)
Fastest Qualifier:  David McNeill, Northern Arizona (7:47.52)
Favorite:  David McNeill (he's got the resume and the time to warrant being favorite)
Other Notables:  Lee Emanuel (2009 mile champ); Dorian Ulrey, Arkansas (3:35 1500m); Craig Miller, Wisconsin (#2 returning miler, #2 qualifier); Brandon Bethke, Arizona State (sub-13:30)
Darkhorse:  Brandon Bethke (nobody talks about him, but he's been one of the top collegiate runners the past two years -- 3:59/7:51/13:27)
Did you know?  German Fernandez ran 7:51 indoors this year and was set to run in this race before twisting his ankle at his conference championships and having to withdraw.

Prediction:  This one's the hardest to predict (says the guy who no doubt failed to predict any of them correctly!).  I think McNeill will be hurting after his 5000m battle with Chelanga, opening the door for Coe to take it.  Miller will finish strong for 2nd, Bethke 3rd, and Ulrey a dissapointed 4th.  The times will all be within one second of each other.

Women's 5000m 

Top Returner:  Bridget Franek, Penn State (4th)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lisa Koll, Iowa State (15:29.65)
Favorite:  Lisa Koll (she's far and away the fastest in the field, and she'll be running fresh)
Other Notables:  Nicole Blood, Oregon (15:38 PR)
Darkhorse:  Janet Jesang, Western Kentucky (7th last year)
Did you know?  Lisa Koll's qualifying time is 22 seconds faster than any other athlete's in the field, and 9 seconds faster than Nicole Blood's personal best.  This is Koll's race to lose.

Prediction: A slow first half, before Koll gets impatient and throws the hammer down.  The top runners go with her, but she's too much for them, winning by half a lap.  Blood, Jesang, Franek take the next spots.

Men's 5000m 

Top Returner:  Sam Chelanga, Liberty (2nd)
Fastest Qualifier:  David McNeill, NAU (13:39.32)
Favorite:  Sam Chelanga (the guy ran 13:18/27:28 last year...he's the favorite)
Other Notables:  a lot of sophomores: Colby Lowe, Oklahoma State (#3 qualifier), Ryan Collins, Virginia (#4 qualifier), Elliott Heath, Stanford (#5 qualifier), Luke Puskedra, Oregon (6th last year as a freshman)
Darkhorse:  Colby Lowe (this kid is really really good, but runs under the exceedingly large shadow of German Fernandez at Oklahoma State)
Did you know?  Sam Chelanga has never won an NCAA track title.  Last year, Jenny Barringer finally won her first Big 12 title, because until last year Sally Kipyego dominated all of their races.  Chelanga has been in that same boat with athletes like Galen Rupp.  We'll see if this is the year he does it.

Prediction: This is my one big "darkhorse for the victory" prediction.  I think Chelanga and McNeill will size each other up for most of the race, allowing a few guys with less top-end speed to hang around.  Colby Lowe will be one of them, and he'll hang on just long enough to take down both McNeill and Chelanga in a helluva last lap.  Lowe, McNeill, Chelanga, Heath.

Women's Distance Medley Relay 

Top Returner:  Tennessee (1st, in World Record time)
Fastest Qualifier:  Oregon (10:59.64)
Favorite:  Oregon (but I don't think Tennessee or Villanova are that far off)
Other Notables:  Villanova (#2 qualifier), Georgetown (#4 qualifier)
Darkhorse:  BYU (they only qualified with an 11:10, but they could have an NCAA 800m champ anchoring them...they just need to stay close)
Did you know?  Tennessee lost their superstar anchor, Sarah Bowman, who graduated last year.  They have the top two 800m qualifiers (Wright and Price), but their team isn't nearly as strong on paper this year.

Prediction: The top three teams--Oregon, Villanova and Tennessee--are very strong on both the front and back ends of this relay.  They should be able to gain some separation from the rest of the pack.  Then it all comes down to who anchors.  If it's Wright, I think Tennessee wins.  If it's not, I think Reid has the best shot to take down the field.  Should be a great race.  I'm going with Tennessee, Villanova, Oregon as my top three, with BYU sneaking up for 4th.

Men's Distance Medley Relay 

Top Returner:  Oregon (1st)
Fastest Qualifier:  Oregon (9:29.82)
Favorite:  Oregon (they have so many middle distance runners it's scary)
Other Notables:  Arkansas (2nd last year, Ulrey anchoring), California (3rd last year, Coe anchoring), Stanford (#2 qualifier)
Darkhorse:  UCLA (#3 qualifier flying completely under the radar)
Did you know?  The top 5 qualifiers are all from the Pac 10 conference.  

Prediction: It's so hard to know what team Oregon will actually put out there.  If Wheating anchors, I think Oregon wins.  Oregon, Arkansas, Cal, UCLA.  If Wheating doesn't anchor, I'm going to go with Ulrey or Coe taking their teams to victory in a big last lap.  Arkansas, Cal, Oregon, UCLA.

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We're into the second half!  From here on out, you'd better be a heavy favorite to either win some titles, break some records, or both!  Again, athlete's are designated with last year's rank (and PR's in parentheses)

Just 19 years old, Derrick is already running away from the rest of the NCAA.

25.  Chris Derrick, 34 (3000m 7:56.31 - 5000m 13:29.98 - 10000m 29:08.33)

Here's a quick breakdown of Derrick's performances in championship meets since he got to Stanford:

2008 NCAA XC: 7th
2009 USA JR XC: 2nd
2009 World JR XC: 15th
2009 NCAA Indoor 3000m: 5th
2009 NCAA Indoor 5000m: 4th
2009 NCAA Outdoor 5000m: 3rd
2009 NCAA XC: 3rd

He's going to have a tough time winning a title this year with Chelanga and McNeill in the NCAAs, but that's the kind of consistency that makes a great runner.  Add to this that he briefly held the AJR for 5000m and that he's the second coming of Dathan Ritzenhein and he has a huge future ahead of him.

24.  Amy Yoder Begley, 27 (1500m 4:10.04 - 3000m 8:53.27 - 5000m 15:24.88 - 10000m 31:13.78 - Half 70:09)

She's the 4th fastest 10000m runner in US history, but she runs in the same era as Flanagan (#1), Goucher (#3) and now Koll (#6).  Begley's 2009 USA 10000m title and 6th place finish in Berlin were a huge step up and showed that in the short-term, she'll be in the hunt for every US 10000m title for the foreseeable future.  In the long-term, her 70:09 half-marathon debut shows she has some promise when she eventually heads to the roads.

23.  Leonel Manzano, NR (800m 1:46.20 - 1000m 2:19.73 - 1500m 3:33.33 - Mile 3:53.01 - 3000m 8:14.59)
22.  Lopez Lomong, 23 (800m 1:45.58 - 1000m 2:20.98 - 1500m 3:32.94 - Mile 3:53.35 - 3000m 7:49.74)

I left Manzano off this list last year despite the fact I was fairly sure it would bite me in the arse.  Still, he doesn't have the most range and until last year, he hadn't put up the spectacular times he now has.  It was justified, if stupid.  Since that time, however, he's gone on to run big PR's in the 800m, 1500m, and mile, qualify for and advance to the final in Berlin, and win a US Indoor 1500m title.  With Lagat moving up to the 5000m, he could be the next US #1 miler.

That is, if Lopez Lomong doesn't stand in his way.  Lomong hasn't been heard from since 2009, where he also set big PR's at 1500m and the Mile, won the US Indoor 1500m title and finished 8th in Berlin.  But he's got great range, great finishing speed, and historically, he's 5-1 head-to-head with Manzano, which gives him the nod here.

21.  Abdi Abdirahman, 18 (3000m 7:47.63 - 5000m 13:13.32 - 10000m 27:16.99 - Half 60:29 - Marathon 2:08.56)
20.  Meb Keflezighi, 40 (3000m 7:48.81 - 5000m 13:11.77 - 10000m 27:13.98AR - Half 61:00 - Marathon 2:09:15)

On paper, these guys are relative equals.  Meb has shown that on any given day he can compete with the best in the world.  Despite coming back from a terrible injury in 2008, Meb went on to run PR's for the half and full marathons, and win the NYC Marathon.  He's now prepping to run Boston, where a win would not only cement his legacy but bring in tons of money.

Abdi has been quiet since he struggled at the US Outdoor 10000m.  When he's fit, he's as good as Rupp or Ritz over that distance, and he's shown he can rip a good marathon, too.  He's never seemed to pop a big race on the world stage, though.  Does he have it in him?

Maggie Vessey's emergence had US fans making the same face.

19.  Maggie Vessey, NR (400m 53.86 - 800m 1:57.84)

The surprise of 2009, Vessey is the highest ranked person to not make the list last year.  But that's what happens when you run the 6th fastest time ever by an American.  I hate the way she races--she relies way too much on her kick, something that's become very popular amongst American half-milers of late--but you can't deny that she's exciting and has a ton of potential.  Her win at Pre might have been the most exciting race of the year.  That said, she's still not the best 800m runner in the country.

18.  Jordan Hasay, 13 (1500m 4:14.50 - Mile 4:35.01 - 3000m 9:12.25)

We learned at the NCAA Indoors that Jordan isn't quite ready to win an NCAA title at the mile distance.  She's very very good for a freshman, but there are a few athletes ahead of her.  She gets this spot because of what she's going to do in the 5000m, though.  I think she's going to run 15:30s at Stanford, and possibly break Molly Huddle's AJR.  By the end of her freshman year, she could be one of the strongest 1500m/5000m runners in the NCAAs.

Major Movers (2009 to 2010)

Who had the biggest ranking leaps and falls from last year to this year? Biggest Falls Laurynne Chetelat -15 (36 to NR) Luke Puskedra -16 (35 to NR) Anthony Famiglietti -16 (14 to 30) Christine Babcock -19 (32 to NR) Khadevis Robinson -19 (26 to 45) Brie Felnagle -26 (25 to NR) Treniere Moser -27 (24 to NR) Jacob Hernandez -29 (22 to NR) Chanelle Price -31 (15 to 46) Sarah Bowman -31 (20 to NR) US middle distance is so deep (especially on the women's side) that the value of being good but not great is not what it used to be. Biggest Leaps Brenda Martinez +16 (NR to 35) Phoebe Wright +18 (NR to 33) Meb Keflezighi +20 (40 to 20) Lukas Verzbicas +21 (48 to 27) Christin Wurth-Thomas +22 (NR to 29) Ashley Sveinsson +25 (NR to 26) Angela Bizzarri +25 (42 to 17) Leonel Manzano +28 (NR to 23) Robby Andrews +31 (46 to 15) Maggie Vessey +32 (NR to 19) Maggie Vessey earns the title for most unexpected performer of 2009!

17.  Angela Bizzarri, 42 (3000m 8:57.40 - 5000m 15:33.02)

Bizzarri is probably my favorite US runner right now.  Somehow or another, she always finds a way to win.  She's the reigning NCAA Outdoor 5000m champ, NCAA Cross Country champ, and now the NCAA Indoor 3000m champ, taking down Lisa Koll (see below) in a thrilling 8:57 personal best.  She'll have her hands full beating Koll over 5000m this year, but I've said that every race for the past year and she continues to win.  I can't wait to see what she does outdoors.

16.  Alan Webb, 9 (800m 1:43.84 - 1500m 330.54 - Mile 3:46.91AR - 3000m 7:39.28 - Two Miles 8:11.48 - 5000m 13:10.86 - 10000m 27:34.72)

Why Webb isn't #1 is a mystery to all US distance running fans.  Despite faltering in the final of the World Champs in 2007, Webb looked poised to dominate US distance running for years to come.  Instead it's been two years since he put up a legitimately exciting time and now he's recovering from Achilles surgery.  Will he ever come back?  At 27 years of age, there's way too much potential to write him off, but with so many great runners in the US right now, this seems like the best place to put him.

15.  Robby Andrews, 46 (800m 1:48.02 - 1000m 2:22.28 - Mile 4:03.49)

To be a great competitor, you have to have a great kick.  There's no running away from people in a championship race.  Either you've got that gear at the end or you don't, and most people don't.  Robby Andrews does.

Is it a world-class kick?  That remains to be seen.  But he's already shown it's good enough to surprise the best 800m runner in the country, Andrew Wheating, and with three more years of eligibility, it's hard to imagine him not winning a couple more NCAA titles.  In the meantime, he'll have to show he can run world-class times before he gets a world-class ranking.

14.  Matt Tegenkamp, 19 (1500m 3:34.25 - Mile 3:56.38 - 3000m 7:34.98 - Two Miles 8:07.07AR - 5000m 12:58.56)

Teg won the 2009 USA Outdoor 5000m, finished 8th in the final in Berlin, and then busted out a 12:58.56 personal best in September.  Unfortunately for him Ritz ran 12:56 the week before (somewhat stealing his thunder) and Bernard Lagat has decided to focus on the 5000m from here on out (somewhat stealing his future thunder).

Personally, I have a few gripes with Teg that make it hard for me to rank him higher than this.  He doesn't race much (only 8 races in 2009, compared to 20 for Lagat).  He refuses to race above 5000m (for no other reason than to torment all of us who are sure he'd be a great 10k runner).  And when he gets into international races, he's passive and deferential to others in the field.  Small gripes, perhaps, but that's the roadmap to increasing his trade value.  If he wants to settle for just being a US champion then so be it.

Symmonds is to running what bumblebees are to flight.

13.  Nick Symmonds, 8 (600m 1:14.47 - 800m 1:43.83 - 1000m 2:17.10 - 1500m 3:40.91 - Mile 3:56.72)

You know how for a long time physicists thought it should be physically impossible for a bumblebee to fly, given its wing to body mass ratio.  I think Symmonds is the bumblebee of US distance running.  We're going to look back and wonder how someone with his form and physique could have run the times he's run.  Can we get some physicists on this already?

Even without knowing how he does it, Nick Symmonds is the clear #1 800m runner in the country right now.  He won the 2008 Olympic Trials, won the 2009 USA Outdoors, finished 6th in Berlin, and recently won the 2010 USA Indoor title.  He also set a new PR of 1:43.83.  All while looking more like a gymnast or wrestler than a distance runner.

I don't see Symmonds going much faster than he's already gone, which is plenty fast to win a major medal already.  The 800m is notoriously random, so anything's possible, but he's got some serious competition in Kaki, Rudisha, Yego, Mulaudzi and Kamel.  On top of that, I truly believe Wheating is just one year away from challenging him for a US title.  This is as high as I can rank him.

12.  Kara Goucher, 4 (1500m 4:05.14 - 3000m 8:34.99 - 5000m 14:55.02 - 10000m 30:55.16 - Half 66:57 - Marathon 2:25:53)

Kara Goucher didn't have a bad year last year.  Despite focusing on the World Championships marathon, she ran PR's at 800m, One Mile, 2000m, and 3000m indoors.  She also won the USA Outdoor 5000m title.  But her marathons weren't what she was hoping for and she's announced that she's going to try and have a baby, which puts her next couple years in limbo.  The even bigger question is whether Flanagan will eclipse her status as "best up-and-coming US marathoner" when she runs her first full marathon sometimes within the next year.

11.  Ryan Hall, 5 (3000m 7:56.74 - 5000m 13:16.03 - 10000m 28:07.93 - Half 59:43AR - Marathon 2:06:17)

Ryan has made a full commitment to the marathon and in the process has really raised the bar for US distance runners on the roads.  Unfortunately, despite running solid times and earning solid places in Boston and NYC, he hasn't had the kind of breakthrough he's been looking for.  And his half marathon times haven't come close to what he did in early 2007.

Ryan will be back in Boston in April, and just as much a threat to win as he was last year when he led early and finished 3rd.  If he does win, this ranking will look like a big mistake.  But as I wrote with Ulrey, he'll be facing a beastly field, and I'm betting the field.

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Pirrenee Steinert & Caitlin Willis Berlin World Champs Interviews August 2009

© 2009 The Runner's Tribe, all rights reserved. Published Tuesday August 18, 2009

Brought to you by Edward Ovadia who is in Berlin with official IAAF accreditation covering the championships for Runnerstribe.com

Has Sammy Wanjiru changed the conventional template for running a championship marathon?

The question must be asked after yesterday's world championship marathon emulated Wanjiru's audacious run to Olympic gold last year in Beijing with Abel Kirui and his Kenyan teammates taking control of the race at breakneck speed from start to finish.

Normally I don't like to talk about the people who are not at a championships, especially marathoners who opt for the big city, big money marathons over testing themselves against the world's best. But Steve Moneghetti declared Wanjiru's the greatest marathon run ever last August and now, 12 months later, Kirui has followed the same pattern to a world championships gold medal.

Statistically, the case is compelling. Kirui's winning time yesterday _ two hours six minutes 54 seconds _ is the second fastest men's championships time ever. The fastest is Wanjiru's 2:06:32 on the hot streets of Beijing.

Kirui broke the previous championship record set by Jaouad Gharib in Paris in 2003 by almost two minutes. Behind Kirui, three others broke two hours nine minutes _ silver medallist Emannuel Mutai of Kenya, bronze medallist Tsegay Kebede of Ethiopia and Robert Cheruiyot of Kenya. Six men _ two more than yesterday _ ran sub-2:10 in Paris 2003, but only two, Gharib and silver medallist Julio Rey of Spain, wen under 2:09.

Kirui, Mutai and Cheruiyout, helped by a second Ethiopian, Deriba Merga, carried the lion's share of the pacing load in Berlin. Merga was also a central figure for most of the Olympic marathon. How he must hate his teammate Kebede. In Beijing he passed Merga on the track to grab the bronze; here he came through him in the last 5k, though Merga was in such a bad way by then that he failed to finish.

Merga showed ahead at the first two 5k splits, but from then on it was either Kirui or Mutai, and from 30k on, Kirui.

It is exciting to think that two championships in a row have now brought a men's race run in exhilarating manner. No doubt we will see a return to conservatism sometime in the future, but for the moment let's just sit back and relish this mad, mad new world order.

Scott Westcott got burned following the early pace, but he helped Martin Dent, Andrew Letherby and Mark Tucker to pack together through 30k as Australia finished eighth of 15 teams in the marathon World Cup. With top 8s hard as ever to come by at the world champs, let's not overlook this one.

Like Abel Kirui, Steve Hooker was committed to a course of action which would lead either to death, or to glory. Like Kirui, his boldness was rewarded with a gold medal in the pole vault.

Leading in to Berlin, Hooker's ambition was to secure a world championships medal to go with his Olympic gold. But last Monday week, he suffered a grade one strain to a groin muscle. Then commenced a race against time to get fit.

It looked all over when Hooker qualified with one jump at 5.65 on Thursday. He crashed to the bag and could barely walk after that effort. The soreness settled, and he embarked on an audacious strategy of taking only one jump in the final in the hope that would suffice for a medal.

Hooker came in at 5.85. He all but cleared the height, just tickling the bar off as he went over. He was shattered but, to his surprise, found enough energy to take one more at the next height of 5.90. to a mighty roar, he cleared it and it stood up for gold.

Two jumps for a world championships gold medal. It has been done only once before by _ guess who? _ Sergey Bubka, in Rome in 1987.

ends


 

Len Johnson was The Melbourne Age athletics writer for over 20 years, covering five Olympics, 10 world championships and five Commonwealth Games. He is the author of The Landy Era, From Nowhere to the Top of the World, and a former national class distance runner (2.19.32 marathon) who trained with Chris Wardlaw and Robert de Castella.