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One of the joys of watching distance races is that they have time to develop.

The 100 metres is simple. Bang! Get to the other end as quick as you can. There are minor tactical considerations in jumps and throws – deciding which heights to attempt in the vertical jumps, for example – but it’s still basically jump as high, or far, as you can; throw as far as you can.

Not so the distance events which, by their nature, take time to unfold. Even on those rare occasions when some brave soul opts to run as fast as they can, as long as they can, there is still the question of whether he or she can go the distance.

As with the race, so with the 2011 season. Change is in the air as hitherto seemingly invincible practitioners appear suddenly vulnerable. Can they hold off those banging at the gates for one more year, or will new champions emerge. How will it all unfold.

In both Beijing 2008 and Berlin 2009, Kenenisa Bekele ruthlessly dispatched all challengers to his domination of the men’s track distances. He won the 5000/10,000 metres double on both occasions – the longer distance with relative ease, the shorter with tactically complete performances.

Tirunesh Dibaba was not as dominant on the women’s side – she did not run in Berlin at all – but has been the pre-eminent performer in women’s distance events, winning the 5/10 double at the Beijing Olympic Games and Helsinki 2005 world championships, and one gold medal at every championships (except the 2004 Olympics) since Paris 2003.

With six weeks until the world championships open (with the two 10,000s on the first two days), neither is an assured participant in Daegu, though Bekele at least has assured entry as a dual defending champion. The fortunes of Bekele and Dibaba will be another element of the unfolding drama over the next few weeks.

The apparent decline of the ruling generation goes beyond these two. Many of the strongest challengers are also likely to be absent or are in questionable form.

Meseret Defar, Dibaba’s Ethiopian arch-rival, has had a patchy time of it though she, at least, looks to be building into some form, with a sub-14:30 5000 at the Paris DL followed by a 31:05 10,000 in Sicily.

Like Dibaba, though, Defar does not look the irresistible force she has been.

Elvan Abeylegesse, the former Ethiopian now running for Turkey, is another who is sidelined. She is expecting a child. Abeylegesse’s aggression in her ultimately unsuccessful attempt to thwart Dibaba in the Olympic 10,000 produced one of the most unforgettable contests of the Beijing Olympics.

Vivian Cheruiyot (5000) and Linet Masai (10,000) are the reigning world champions and the Kenyan pair are both likely to be formidable in Daegu. Cheruiyot is saying she would like to attempt the double.

On the men’s side, Sileshi Sihine, number two to Bekele in so many races, is not at his top. Two others to have challenged Bekele – Eritrea’s Zersenay Tadese and Uganda’s Moses Kipsiro – are sidetracked. Kipsiro has suffered from malaria and typhoid, though he still plans to compete in Daegu. Tadese seems to be torn between the track and the roads. All three of these athletes have solid current track times, but don’t seem to be the forces they were.

The other intriguing possibility opened up by the current situation is that a non-African runner could step up. Mo Farah – Somali born but raised in Britain – Galen Rupp and Matt Tegenkamp are all among the possible men’s 10,000 medallists. Shalane Flanagan is a threat in the women’s 10,000.

Flanagan (Beijing 2008) and Kara Goucher (Osaka 2007) have already been bronze medallists at 10,000, but neither was a factor in deciding the race. The exciting thing about 2011 is that, for the first time since Craig Mottram in the Helsinki 2005 5000 or Paula Radcliffe in women’s 10,000 before that, we are looking at a non-African runner being right in the winning mix.

 Farah has undoubtedly stepped up a level since moving to the US to train with Rupp, and others, under Alberto Salazar. His closing speed in running the fastest 10,000 of the year (at the Pre Classic) and winning the 5000 at the Birmingham DL was most impressive.

Rupp is yet to impose himself on an international race in similar fashion but, three years younger than Farah, gives every impression that he soon will.

For a different reason – injury, in his case – Mottram may still be a year away from 2005 form, but he, too, is showing every sign of getting back into contention for Daegu and London.

Flanagan showed her class in taking a bronze medal behind Cheruiyot and Masai at the world cross-country in Punta Umbria earlier this year. She also showed her development, as the previous year she had not been able to put herself right in the race.

At the US championships, Flanagan ran from the front in finishing comfortably ahead of Goucher. It seems she is a good chance to take a medal again in Daegu.

Whatever happens, there is a lot more drama to unfold in the track distance races yet.

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We're into the second half!  From here on out, you'd better be a heavy favorite to either win some titles, break some records, or both!  Again, athlete's are designated with last year's rank (and PR's in parentheses)

Just 19 years old, Derrick is already running away from the rest of the NCAA.

25.  Chris Derrick, 34 (3000m 7:56.31 - 5000m 13:29.98 - 10000m 29:08.33)

Here's a quick breakdown of Derrick's performances in championship meets since he got to Stanford:

2008 NCAA XC: 7th
2009 USA JR XC: 2nd
2009 World JR XC: 15th
2009 NCAA Indoor 3000m: 5th
2009 NCAA Indoor 5000m: 4th
2009 NCAA Outdoor 5000m: 3rd
2009 NCAA XC: 3rd

He's going to have a tough time winning a title this year with Chelanga and McNeill in the NCAAs, but that's the kind of consistency that makes a great runner.  Add to this that he briefly held the AJR for 5000m and that he's the second coming of Dathan Ritzenhein and he has a huge future ahead of him.

24.  Amy Yoder Begley, 27 (1500m 4:10.04 - 3000m 8:53.27 - 5000m 15:24.88 - 10000m 31:13.78 - Half 70:09)

She's the 4th fastest 10000m runner in US history, but she runs in the same era as Flanagan (#1), Goucher (#3) and now Koll (#6).  Begley's 2009 USA 10000m title and 6th place finish in Berlin were a huge step up and showed that in the short-term, she'll be in the hunt for every US 10000m title for the foreseeable future.  In the long-term, her 70:09 half-marathon debut shows she has some promise when she eventually heads to the roads.

23.  Leonel Manzano, NR (800m 1:46.20 - 1000m 2:19.73 - 1500m 3:33.33 - Mile 3:53.01 - 3000m 8:14.59)
22.  Lopez Lomong, 23 (800m 1:45.58 - 1000m 2:20.98 - 1500m 3:32.94 - Mile 3:53.35 - 3000m 7:49.74)

I left Manzano off this list last year despite the fact I was fairly sure it would bite me in the arse.  Still, he doesn't have the most range and until last year, he hadn't put up the spectacular times he now has.  It was justified, if stupid.  Since that time, however, he's gone on to run big PR's in the 800m, 1500m, and mile, qualify for and advance to the final in Berlin, and win a US Indoor 1500m title.  With Lagat moving up to the 5000m, he could be the next US #1 miler.

That is, if Lopez Lomong doesn't stand in his way.  Lomong hasn't been heard from since 2009, where he also set big PR's at 1500m and the Mile, won the US Indoor 1500m title and finished 8th in Berlin.  But he's got great range, great finishing speed, and historically, he's 5-1 head-to-head with Manzano, which gives him the nod here.

21.  Abdi Abdirahman, 18 (3000m 7:47.63 - 5000m 13:13.32 - 10000m 27:16.99 - Half 60:29 - Marathon 2:08.56)
20.  Meb Keflezighi, 40 (3000m 7:48.81 - 5000m 13:11.77 - 10000m 27:13.98AR - Half 61:00 - Marathon 2:09:15)

On paper, these guys are relative equals.  Meb has shown that on any given day he can compete with the best in the world.  Despite coming back from a terrible injury in 2008, Meb went on to run PR's for the half and full marathons, and win the NYC Marathon.  He's now prepping to run Boston, where a win would not only cement his legacy but bring in tons of money.

Abdi has been quiet since he struggled at the US Outdoor 10000m.  When he's fit, he's as good as Rupp or Ritz over that distance, and he's shown he can rip a good marathon, too.  He's never seemed to pop a big race on the world stage, though.  Does he have it in him?

Maggie Vessey's emergence had US fans making the same face.

19.  Maggie Vessey, NR (400m 53.86 - 800m 1:57.84)

The surprise of 2009, Vessey is the highest ranked person to not make the list last year.  But that's what happens when you run the 6th fastest time ever by an American.  I hate the way she races--she relies way too much on her kick, something that's become very popular amongst American half-milers of late--but you can't deny that she's exciting and has a ton of potential.  Her win at Pre might have been the most exciting race of the year.  That said, she's still not the best 800m runner in the country.

18.  Jordan Hasay, 13 (1500m 4:14.50 - Mile 4:35.01 - 3000m 9:12.25)

We learned at the NCAA Indoors that Jordan isn't quite ready to win an NCAA title at the mile distance.  She's very very good for a freshman, but there are a few athletes ahead of her.  She gets this spot because of what she's going to do in the 5000m, though.  I think she's going to run 15:30s at Stanford, and possibly break Molly Huddle's AJR.  By the end of her freshman year, she could be one of the strongest 1500m/5000m runners in the NCAAs.

Major Movers (2009 to 2010)

Who had the biggest ranking leaps and falls from last year to this year? Biggest Falls Laurynne Chetelat -15 (36 to NR) Luke Puskedra -16 (35 to NR) Anthony Famiglietti -16 (14 to 30) Christine Babcock -19 (32 to NR) Khadevis Robinson -19 (26 to 45) Brie Felnagle -26 (25 to NR) Treniere Moser -27 (24 to NR) Jacob Hernandez -29 (22 to NR) Chanelle Price -31 (15 to 46) Sarah Bowman -31 (20 to NR) US middle distance is so deep (especially on the women's side) that the value of being good but not great is not what it used to be. Biggest Leaps Brenda Martinez +16 (NR to 35) Phoebe Wright +18 (NR to 33) Meb Keflezighi +20 (40 to 20) Lukas Verzbicas +21 (48 to 27) Christin Wurth-Thomas +22 (NR to 29) Ashley Sveinsson +25 (NR to 26) Angela Bizzarri +25 (42 to 17) Leonel Manzano +28 (NR to 23) Robby Andrews +31 (46 to 15) Maggie Vessey +32 (NR to 19) Maggie Vessey earns the title for most unexpected performer of 2009!

17.  Angela Bizzarri, 42 (3000m 8:57.40 - 5000m 15:33.02)

Bizzarri is probably my favorite US runner right now.  Somehow or another, she always finds a way to win.  She's the reigning NCAA Outdoor 5000m champ, NCAA Cross Country champ, and now the NCAA Indoor 3000m champ, taking down Lisa Koll (see below) in a thrilling 8:57 personal best.  She'll have her hands full beating Koll over 5000m this year, but I've said that every race for the past year and she continues to win.  I can't wait to see what she does outdoors.

16.  Alan Webb, 9 (800m 1:43.84 - 1500m 330.54 - Mile 3:46.91AR - 3000m 7:39.28 - Two Miles 8:11.48 - 5000m 13:10.86 - 10000m 27:34.72)

Why Webb isn't #1 is a mystery to all US distance running fans.  Despite faltering in the final of the World Champs in 2007, Webb looked poised to dominate US distance running for years to come.  Instead it's been two years since he put up a legitimately exciting time and now he's recovering from Achilles surgery.  Will he ever come back?  At 27 years of age, there's way too much potential to write him off, but with so many great runners in the US right now, this seems like the best place to put him.

15.  Robby Andrews, 46 (800m 1:48.02 - 1000m 2:22.28 - Mile 4:03.49)

To be a great competitor, you have to have a great kick.  There's no running away from people in a championship race.  Either you've got that gear at the end or you don't, and most people don't.  Robby Andrews does.

Is it a world-class kick?  That remains to be seen.  But he's already shown it's good enough to surprise the best 800m runner in the country, Andrew Wheating, and with three more years of eligibility, it's hard to imagine him not winning a couple more NCAA titles.  In the meantime, he'll have to show he can run world-class times before he gets a world-class ranking.

14.  Matt Tegenkamp, 19 (1500m 3:34.25 - Mile 3:56.38 - 3000m 7:34.98 - Two Miles 8:07.07AR - 5000m 12:58.56)

Teg won the 2009 USA Outdoor 5000m, finished 8th in the final in Berlin, and then busted out a 12:58.56 personal best in September.  Unfortunately for him Ritz ran 12:56 the week before (somewhat stealing his thunder) and Bernard Lagat has decided to focus on the 5000m from here on out (somewhat stealing his future thunder).

Personally, I have a few gripes with Teg that make it hard for me to rank him higher than this.  He doesn't race much (only 8 races in 2009, compared to 20 for Lagat).  He refuses to race above 5000m (for no other reason than to torment all of us who are sure he'd be a great 10k runner).  And when he gets into international races, he's passive and deferential to others in the field.  Small gripes, perhaps, but that's the roadmap to increasing his trade value.  If he wants to settle for just being a US champion then so be it.

Symmonds is to running what bumblebees are to flight.

13.  Nick Symmonds, 8 (600m 1:14.47 - 800m 1:43.83 - 1000m 2:17.10 - 1500m 3:40.91 - Mile 3:56.72)

You know how for a long time physicists thought it should be physically impossible for a bumblebee to fly, given its wing to body mass ratio.  I think Symmonds is the bumblebee of US distance running.  We're going to look back and wonder how someone with his form and physique could have run the times he's run.  Can we get some physicists on this already?

Even without knowing how he does it, Nick Symmonds is the clear #1 800m runner in the country right now.  He won the 2008 Olympic Trials, won the 2009 USA Outdoors, finished 6th in Berlin, and recently won the 2010 USA Indoor title.  He also set a new PR of 1:43.83.  All while looking more like a gymnast or wrestler than a distance runner.

I don't see Symmonds going much faster than he's already gone, which is plenty fast to win a major medal already.  The 800m is notoriously random, so anything's possible, but he's got some serious competition in Kaki, Rudisha, Yego, Mulaudzi and Kamel.  On top of that, I truly believe Wheating is just one year away from challenging him for a US title.  This is as high as I can rank him.

12.  Kara Goucher, 4 (1500m 4:05.14 - 3000m 8:34.99 - 5000m 14:55.02 - 10000m 30:55.16 - Half 66:57 - Marathon 2:25:53)

Kara Goucher didn't have a bad year last year.  Despite focusing on the World Championships marathon, she ran PR's at 800m, One Mile, 2000m, and 3000m indoors.  She also won the USA Outdoor 5000m title.  But her marathons weren't what she was hoping for and she's announced that she's going to try and have a baby, which puts her next couple years in limbo.  The even bigger question is whether Flanagan will eclipse her status as "best up-and-coming US marathoner" when she runs her first full marathon sometimes within the next year.

11.  Ryan Hall, 5 (3000m 7:56.74 - 5000m 13:16.03 - 10000m 28:07.93 - Half 59:43AR - Marathon 2:06:17)

Ryan has made a full commitment to the marathon and in the process has really raised the bar for US distance runners on the roads.  Unfortunately, despite running solid times and earning solid places in Boston and NYC, he hasn't had the kind of breakthrough he's been looking for.  And his half marathon times haven't come close to what he did in early 2007.

Ryan will be back in Boston in April, and just as much a threat to win as he was last year when he led early and finished 3rd.  If he does win, this ranking will look like a big mistake.  But as I wrote with Ulrey, he'll be facing a beastly field, and I'm betting the field.

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