By Bryan Green

"Running from the front requires more energy.  But then again, so does catching up to the leader."

I wish I knew where I first heard that quote, but it always sticks with me when I watch championship racing.  If you could pick one place to be in the final lap, it would be 2nd place, one stride back from the leader, on the outside of lane 1 (preferably without Imane Merga slapping your arm and pushing you outside).  You're not in the front, but you're at the front, and you have to work the least to catch the leader.

You know who is always in that position?  Bernard Lagat.

Bernard Lagat just won a medal in his 6th outdoor championship, dating back to 2001 (and he likely would have medaled in 2003 and 2005 had he not been forced to sit out).  Obviously, Lagat is one of the most talented runners to ever lace up a pair of spikes.  But the fact that he continues to place so well against the world's best at age 36 is a matter of more than just talent.  He's no longer the best runner in the world, but he's arguably the best tactician.

All you can aim to do in a race is give yourself the best chance at placing as high as possible.  Lagat always puts himself in that position.  In fact, the art of executing perfect race tactics should just be named after him at this point.  We should all agree to call perfectly run races "Bernards" and to describe the right move at the right time as "Lagatesque".  Shouldn't we?

Why is it that Lagat can always run this way and others can't?  

To Mix It Up, Or Not To Mix It Up

Johnny Gray's shins were never touched by a competitor's spikes.

We first need to look at racing styles.  In general, there are three distinct race styles, and athletes tend to fall into one of the following: front-runners, big kickers, or mixer-upers.

Front-runners are a rare breed.  They go for it at the gun and challenge you to beat them.  Front-running, especially in championship settings, requires a unique combination of outstanding ability and what we might call delusional confidence.  Pre's myth centers around his front-running approach.  Another classic front-runner was Johnny Gray, who never met a race he didn't need to lead.  I think we can fairly assume his shins were the least spiked in history.  Charles Jock may be the next Johnny Gray.

Big kickers are the opposite of front-runners.  They hang as far back as possible--often dangerously far back--and rely on a huge kick to catch everyone as late as possible.  These guys are equally one-dimensional, albeit more thrilling to watch than front-runners.  The big problem for big kickers is that at some point, someone else in the race will have the same big kick and if you're at the back when the race really starts, you'll probably lose.  Nick Symmonds appears to be learning this, to his credit.  Maggie Vessey, Andrew Wheating, Robby Andrews, there are a lot of young American athletes who continue to use this approach exclusively to devastating success...and failure.

Mixer-upers are the guys who change their tactics for every race.  They mix it up with everyone, fight for position, aim to be in the right place at the right time, and are always trying to manufacture the perfect race.  Mixer-upers need to be constantly aware and reacting to the dynamic changes taking place mid-race.  This leaves them susceptible to other problems, like getting boxed in, kicked in the shins, tripped up, etc.  But when it works, these athletes are most likely to put themselves where you really want to be at the bell: 2nd place, one stride back, outside of lane 1.  

Most athletes are mixer-upers, if only because they don't have the necessary kick and/or they aren't delusional.  But most are not capable of consistently running ideal races in a championship setting.  Bernard Lagat is an exception, a mixer-uper who thrives in championships.  Have you noticed that Bernard Lagat never loses to big kickers?  That's because a) he has a pretty damn good kick, and b) when the kicking starts, he's always in better position than the big kicker.

If you're going to beat Bernard Lagat, you're going to have to both mix it up with him and be better than him.  A pretty hard task, as very few combine the consistently superior tactics with the finishing kick needed.  Mo Farah did, and he won the men's 5000m as a result.  But no one else did.

Bernard Lagat on the last lap in Daegu - right where he wants to be.

Can Lagatesque Tactics be Taught?

Are superior race tactics a skill that can be taught, or is the answer simply, "Some people get it and others don't"?  

I think Lagat's approach can be taught, for the most part.  The challenge is in maintaining the composure to execute it.  The first step is to simply understand what it is he does.  Luckily, Bernard Lagat has been running the same race for the past decade.  It is so predictable as to be boring.  

A "Bernard" can be summed up in 6 parts:

1.  Stay out of trouble early-mid race.  If possible, stay on the outside of lane 1.  If you have good position mid-race, don't give it up.  It's better to start at the back and move up on the outside than get trapped on the rail mid-race.

2.  Be in the top 3 by the last lap.  Sacrifice position early to have the freedom to move up by the last lap.  Aim to be on the outside of lane 1.

3.  Don't take the lead.  You should only take the lead once, when you are sure nobody can catch you.  For Bernard that's usually with about 100m to go.

4.  Don't go at the bell.  Everybody goes at the bell.  Too hard and too fast usually.  If you're aiming to win, you need to go just enough to keep contact with the leaders.  But you don't need to be right with them.  Most races are won in the final 100m, not the backstretch.

5.  Don't give up.  How many times have we seen someone open up a big lead from the bell to the final straight, only to get reeled in by the strongest finisher in the last 100m?  People who go early almost always come back.  So stay close enough to not lose faith.

6.  Have a good finish.  The first five don't matter if you don't have it at the end.  

It's simple but devastatingly effective.  Of course the X-factor is number 6.  Take Galen Rupp in both of his races.  He ran very good tactical races but didn't have it at the end.  So it goes.

A couple other Americans did have good finishes, however, and came home with medals as a result.  Jennifer Simpson took a page out of Lagat's book to win the women's 1500m gold, and Matt Centrowitz surpassed all expectations and snuck a bronze in the men's 1500m.



Simpson is a world-class steeplechaser who chose to run in on "off-event", the 1500m.  She has a 3:59 PR in the event, so it's not as though she had no credentials heading into the meet, but she was far from the favorite.  Still, she's a tenacious competitor, and is always mixing it up with the lead pack.  The final in Daegu was no different.  She stayed right near the front, didn't respond when everyone went too hard too soon at the bell, got to the outside and then picked people off down the homestretch to take the title.  

And Centrowitz was an even bigger surprise.  A 21-year old senior at the University of Oregon, he won the NCAA title (not a surprise) and then the US title (kind of a surprise), but if he'd been eliminated in the semis in Daegu everyone would have considered the experience a success.  Instead he controlled and won his semi (a race in which reigning champ Yusuf Saad Kamel failed to qualify), ran in perfect position at the front throughout the final, maintained his poise as the crowd jumped him at the bell, and kicked home faster than a slough of veterans to take bronze.  It wasn't just a Lagatesque final, it was a Lagatesque season.

What did Jennifer Simpson and Matt Centrowitz have in common with Bernard Lagat?  They executed a simple plan.  They always got themselves into the position they wanted to be in.  When they had good position, they didn't give it up easily.  They didn't get excited and go too early.  Even when they were gapped, they maintained enough connection to stay competitive.  And of course, they finished.

That's the part that can be taught.  In order to do it, however, they had to stay composed and disciplined as each round and each lap of the final heated up.  They couldn't get caught up in the moment and make a mistake.  You don't know if someone has that ability until they show it.  

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The Patching-Up Of My Sinking Ship 

By David McNeill

G’Day Everyone!

 

It’s been a while since the last blog, and as far as my performances go, not much changed over my Australian track season.  Last time I blogged, I closed out my US college career in far-from-ideal fashion (a stitch-hampered final cross country race), and followed it up with a below-par track season in Australia.  The transition from the US college running scene to the more independent “professional” running scene didn’t go as I had hoped, and so mistakes were made, and performances suffered.  But that is not what I will blog about today.  I’d rather fill you all in on the positive progress I have made since my last poor performance at the Melbourne 5k, and praise the handful of people who have stepped in and rescued me from the sinking ship that was my running career back in March.  The people who will be getting a well-deserved plug include Jason Antonelli, Craig Mottram, my new Coach, James Li, and my new training partner and friend (I still get goosebumps when I refer to him as that), Bernard Lagat.  I hope this early name-dropping will entice you all into a tantalizing read…well, I can’t promise the read will be as enticing and tantalizing as the above mentioned names…But anyway, here goes; the patching up of my sinking ship:

 

Jason Antonelli was probably the first person to stand in and get the ball rolling for me again. Jason and I both run for the Old Xaverians AC in Melbourne, and for 2 weeks in February, we trained entirely together down in Queenscliff (along the Victorian coast).  Over many a latté at Kelp Café, and over perhaps a few too many Tim Tams, Jase and I developed not only a great friendship, but a sense of common ground, when it came to our love for running, and our gratitude towards the people that make running possible.  Jason would make any Jesuit proud.  For those of you who don’t know who the Jesuits are, lets just say Jase is a very selfless and compassionate person.  He made me realize how important it is to have someone to share the ride with.  I’d taken for granted how hard it was to fly solo, and how when we fly solo, it is so easy to stress and get caught up and distracted by the little things we can’t control.  Had I not had Jase to train with, I probably would have spent an extra 30secs saying goodbye to the Olympic Park track during that 5k race at the start of March, and I would not have realized that what I needed most for my running to start improving again was a training partner/group, and a plan!

 

Craig Mottram helped me instigate the first part of my plan after that Melbourne race.  That plan was to start relaxing, and block out the extraneous issues I couldn’t control.  I was fortunate enough to room with Craig at the World Cross Country Champs in Spain.  Craig has clearly experienced the highest of highs, and the lowest of lows, and had a wealth of experience to share.  He had been humbled by a debilitating Achilles injury for a good two years, and had showed the world that he wasn’t afraid to start from the bottom, and work his way back to the top at his own pace and in his own way.  Most of the time, Craig was just good entertainment.  Between his unique morning alarm clock that got us out of bed each morning, to his animated mealtime discussions with one of the junior runners on the team, Joshua Johnson, Craig was relaxed and enjoying the team experience.  This was a leaf I definitely needed to take out of his book.  And so I did.  Don’t get the wrong idea when I say this, but my week on the Spanish coast leading up to the World Cross race was the holiday I needed!  My experience rooming and chatting with Craig taught me to relax, and allowed me to extract a better performance from myself than I had been able to all summer.  Craig was encouraging, and a good friend in Spain.  I managed a 42^nd place, which was my best result at World Cross, and allowed me to be the second Aussie across the line on the day.  I loved being amongst a team that week, and shooting the shit with Benny Saint, Liam, Clint, and Collis, and all the other guys and gals!  Running is a fun sport, if only we open the doors to that possibility.

 

I returned to the US after world cross with a better attitude and a better idea of what I needed to do to get myself back on track, and start running some PBs again.  I was fortunate enough to be contacted by Coach James Li of the University of Arizona over my time at home in Australia, with the offer of a helping hand if I needed it.  I hadn’t thought much of a new coach or a new training location, as I had figured Coach Heins and Flagstaff would continue to provide what I needed.  But if I had learnt anything from Jase and from Craig, I knew I couldn’t extract my best on my own.  I knew I would be somewhat on my own and left to my own devices in Flagstaff.  And with Coach Heins’ head coaching commitments, and his demanding travel schedule, it would have been unfair to expect as much from Coach Heins as I had when I was on the team.  I am incredibly grateful for where he had taken me, and even more grateful for the support he provided in my transition over to Coach Li.  Coach Heins was a selfless and supportive coach, and shared the excitement of new beginnings for me! I couldn’t ask for a better mentor or friend than that.  And so I started working with Coach Li, and haven’t looked back.  Coach Li has coached some of the best athletes in the world, and continues to coach the ageless champion, Bernard Lagat.  When Coach Li contacted me, my performances were dropping, and there was no prospect of a shoe contract or any money to be made.  The experience of being believed in by another human being – especially one who you have only just met - is such a humbling experience, and says a lot of my new Coach.  Coach Li is a quietly passionate coach, and one of the humblest I have met.  With his help, I have learnt to put a little more belief in myself, and have reaped the rewards of his expertise and guidance.  I am yet to race yet under his guidance, but when I finally do get that opportunity to race, I plan on making the most of it, and showing all my friends and family what he has guided me to.  I do hope my performance will match the appreciation of have for his coaching and support.

 

Last, but definitely not the least defining piece of the puzzle (that has been the patching up of my sinking ship) has been a guy by the name of Bernard Lagat.  Back in 2001, at the IAAF Grand Prix final in Melbourne, as a 14 year old, I staggered through the crowds to get this man’s autograph after he finished second behind Hicham El Guerrouj in the 1500m.  Never in my wildest dreams would I have imagined 10 years later, I’d be his training partner and friend.  However, it is not the novelty of training with one of the greatest middle distance runners of all time that has affected me the most.  It is the man’s character and integrity, which most definitely exceeds his incredible athletic accomplishments.  Certainly, there aren’t many people I have met in my life with this man’s credentials, but there are also very few I have met with as big a heart, and as helpful a hand as his.  When we did 5 weeks of training up in Flagstaff, Bernard picked me up and drove me to training everyday, got me some new running shoes and clothes, got me into the 5k race at the New York Diamond League (which is this coming weekend), and provided me the stimulus and company as a training partner that I needed.  From Bernard, I have learnt new athletic limits – or a lack there of – within myself.  I have learnt what it means to train hard and to train smart.  In the lead up to my first race of the season, Bernard and his wife, Gladys have had me stay at their home for nearly three weeks, making me feel at home, and making me feel a part of their family.  In preparing to race while I make the transition from life in Flagstaff to life in Tucson, Bernard has helped give me the best chance to get the most out of the opportunity I have.  The man is a true champion, and has an amazing family.  My gratitude towards him exceeds my admiration for him as an athlete, which says a lot.  My only regret now is that it would be just plain awkward for me to ask him for his autograph! Oh well, I’ll take him as a training partner instead!

 

I’ll leave this blog here for now, and hope to give you a bit of a look at my training in the next installment.  Oh, one more plug: to my Mum and Dad – my coolest and favorite supporters!  Oh, and sorry for the American spelling of a few words in this blog.  I bought my computer in the US, and the auto correct is set to US English, and I couldn’t be bothered changing it all.

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An upset, a near-upset and a masterclass: that’s what the three big races at the Melbourne Track Classic provided.

Given that the upset – Jeff Riseley defeating Olympic champion Asbel Kiprop in the 1500 metres, and near-upset – Ben St Lawrence threatening to do the same to Bernard Lagat off the final bend of the 5000, both involved Australians, the two most competitive races of the night fulfilled the expectations loaded onto them in the build-up to the meeting.

Since the masterclass was given by 2010 male athlete of the year in the 800 metres, there weren’t too many complaints about that either. David Rudisha set up a mighty impressive season off his 1:43.15 in Melbourne last year, he’ll be hoping his 1:43.88 on Thursday night is a prelude to another one.

Predictably, given Melbourne’s history as the self-proclaimed ‘Oslo of the south’, middle and long-distance featured heavily on the schedule for the final international meeting at Olympic Park.

This, after all, is the track where John Landy set off in lonely pursuit of the first sub-four minute mile; where Herb Elliott first broke four minutes; where Ron Clarke set the first of almost 20 world records; where Charlene Rendina – a teammate of Greg and Carolyn Lewis back in the 1970s, set a national record for 800 metres which defies all comers, but chiefly their daughter, Tamsyn, to this day; and, where Craig Mottram emerged as a top-class 5000 runner with a 13:12.04 against Stephen Cherono in 2002.

Jeff Riseley evoked all that spirit, and more, when he sprinted past Kiprop up the final straight of the 1500. Sure enough it was a first-up race for the Olympic gold medallist, but it was just Riseley’s second outing since returning from the foot injury which put him out of the Commonwealth Games and here he was surging home ahead of Kiprop, Alan Webb and Olympic silver medallist Nick Willis – not a bad collection of scalps.

It was a race lost as well as won. Kiprop sat behind the erratic pacemaking of compatriot Gilbert Kipchoge who ran 53, 1:53, the old too fast then too slow trick. Riseley followed that, too, but critically got the sit on his rival.

The other thing it showed was just how difficult it is to run the world championships A-standard of 3:35.00 other than in the orchestrated races of the Diamond League. With the pace on from the start, Riseley still ran ‘only’ 3:36.71. He will surely get the time, but the result emphasised how difficult qualifying will be for so many athletes.

Ben St Lawrence raised hopes of a second upset when he loomed at Lagat’s shoulder on the final bend of the 5000. Already, he was travelling at a pace which would lead to a 15-second ‘pb’, and now it looked as if ‘Benny Saint’ might defeat Lagat, the 2007 world champion, 2009 silver medallist and second only to Kenenisa Bekele among 5k runners in recent history.

“S**t, I’m going to pass him,” St Lawrence thought. And so thought all of us, too, but it didn’t quite happen, Lagat sprinting decisively clear to win 13:08.43 to 13:10.08.

St Lawrence is now second on the Australian all-time list behind Craig Mottram, while Lagat has his first win in three starts over 11 years in this country. His first was in finishing third behind Noah Ngeny and Hicham El Geurrouj in the Sydney Olympic 1500, his second in finishing behind El Guerrouj in the 2001 IAAF grand prix final at Olympic Park the following year. Now, Lagat has closed Olympic Park with the fastest 5000 ever run at the track.

And what about Mottram? He finished sixth in 13:25.15 behind the first two, Chris Solinsky, Matt Tegenkamp and the surprising Andrew Bumbalough. It was an encouraging step back along the road after the latest of a long series of achilles tendon problems.

 Unlike Kiprop and Lagat, there were no rude shocks for David Rudisha in the 800. His 1:43.88 saw him home an unchallenged 10 metres ahead of Nick Symmonds.

It was another business-as-usual run for the world record holder, his preferred pacemaker taking him out in a tick over 50 seconds, his rivals racing for second from then on. Rudisha’s test will come at the world championships, when he attempts to add a major title to his world record performances.

Lachlan Renshaw continued to show that his move to the OTC Elite has been a good one, running a ‘pb’ 1:45.66 in third place and there was a huge run, too, from 18-year-old Alex Rowe whose 1:46.28 was within 0.37 of 1994 world junior champion Paul Byrne’s national U20 record.

All up, three great races with more than enough local content to keep the most demanding fan happy.

There was much else besides, including a sub-2 minutes 800 from Jamaica’s Kenia Sinclair ahead of Tamsyn Lewis and a stirring battle between Jemma Simpson and Kaila McKnight in the women’s 1500, won by Simpson, 4:08.49 to 4:08.94.

Note: both the IAAF (www.iaaf.org) and Athletics Australia (www.athletics.com.au) websites have full summary and results of the meeting.

 

Bernard Lagat and Chris Solinsky have sent early warnings of form to their Australian counterparts ahead of the 5000m at the IAAF Melbourne Track Classic (IAAF World Challenge), with the duo both enjoying remarkable victories at American indoor meets across the weekend.

 

A two-time world champion (2007 - 1500m, 5000m), two-time world indoor champion (2004 - 3000m, 2010 - 3000m) and dual Olympic medallist (2000 - bronze 1500m, 2004 - silver 1500m), Lagat stopped the clock at 8:10.07 to win the two miles at an indoor meet in Armoury, New York on  Saturday (February 12).

 

Improving the national indoor two mile record by more than five seconds in the process, the Kenyan-born American now boasts the indoor records of his adopted country across 1500m, the mile, two miles, 3000m and 5000m.

 

Equally impressive in Seattle, Washington, Solinsky took out the mile event at the Husky Invitational in a time of 3:54.52. The national record holder across 10,000m and the second fastest American across 5,000m ever, the 26-year-old’s weekend result is the world’s fastest time across the mile this year.

 

Solinsky’s Oregon Track Club team mate Tim Nelson, who will also compete in what is fast becoming the best 5000m field on record in Australia, also tasted victory in the 3000m at the same meet as the 26-year-old took line honours in a respectable 7:49.95.

 

“This is going to be a great race and it provides a fantastic opportunity for our distance runners to run against athletes that are both highly credentialed and in amazing form,” Tim O’Shaughnessy, Athletics Australia’s National Distance Coordinator said.

 

“The chase for a 13:20 world champs (sic) qualifier is tough and the pace of the field will no doubt helps the likes of Collis Birmingham and Craig Mottram as they push for Daegu selection.”

 

Doubling as the Australian championship event and selection trial for the world championships later this year, Australian chargers Birmingham and Mottram will be joined on the start line by compatriots Ben St Lawrence, the national champion, and Commonwealth Games representativeDavid McNeill when the gun fires on March 3.

 

Discount tickets to the IAAF Melbourne Track Classic are on sale now through Ticketek.

Tickets will also be available at the gate on Thursday, March 3.

For more information visit athletics.com.au.

2011 Australian Athletics Tour

Round 2: Briggs Athletics Classic (Hobart) – Sunday February 20, 2011
Round 3: Melbourne Track Classic – Thursday March 3, 2011
Round 4: Sydney Track Classic – Saturday March 19, 2011
Australian Athletics Tour Final Perth: Thursday March 31 – Friday April 1, 2011

ENDS

By Bryan Green

Jenny Simpson vanquishes a 3000m field that might not make the final at an outdoor championship meet.

I hate criticizing track and field, or track and field athletes.  But where the heck were all of them at the USATF Indoor Championships this weekend?

I don't want to short-change any of the champions from this weekend.  Many of them are arguably the best in their respective events.  Jenn Suhr, Jillian Camarena, Jennifer Simpson (or Barringer, depending on the event), Ryan Whiting, Bernard Lagat and Michael Rodgers all showed up and dominated.  They should be commended for that.  Unfortunately, in most cases, they didn't have to beat anyone to win their titles.

I could list all of the top US athletes who didn't appear, but that would get depressing.  Apparently a US Championship doesn't rank that high on many of our athlete's to-do lists this year.  Even worse, the event was shown live on Sunday on ESPN, so there was at least the potential for a ton of viewers.  To see what, though?  A paucity of competitive events, with winning marks that were worse than many at the MPSF Championships or SEC Championships, cheered on by crowds that were...wait, were there crowds?

Think about this: in a country with so many great milers, ESPN didn't even show the men's mile race!  Sadly, it probably turned out to be the best actual race of the meet, but an argument could be made that the top ten US milers didn't show up for the meet (save for Lagat, who ran the 3000m).  We can criticize ESPN for that decision, but in the bigger picture, how can USATF and ESPN sell our sport when our best aren't there to be sold? 

The freedom athletes have to choose their own destiny in track and field can be a strength, but more often it's a weakness for the sport.  I don't care how well this year's USATF Indoor Championships was managed, how great the facilities in Albuquerque were, or how well ESPN and RunnerSpace broadcast it.  Doing those well are all necessary, but not sufficient to create a great fan experience.  You need the best athletes.  From a fan's perspective, it was kind of depressing to watch the meet knowing how many top athletes weren't there.

Galen Rupp deserves props for giving Bernard Lagat his best shot, as most US athletes opted to train for outdoors rather than compete for a national championship.

Sport captures the imagination through rivalries, through superstars, and/or through the clashing of titans when the stakes are on the line.  It's why we love playoffs, all-star games, and championship meets.  Sadly, anyone who tuned-in to the USATF Indoor Championships yesterday got little of the above.  

That's not because track and field lacks rivalries, superstars, or great championship battles, but because the meet didn't have enough.  I would argue that the only event that offered a "clash of titans" was the Men's 3000m with Bernard Lagat, Galen Rupp and Brent Vaughn (recent USA XC Champion).  But that feels a little generous, as the result was essentially a foregone conclusion.  

I especially love the fact that Rupp showed up to the meet and gave his all.  And Lagat deserves nothing but respect for his continued dominance.  But until Lagat starts to lose, his races will continue to feel like exhibitions and not the titanic clashes fans hope to see.  

The fact of the matter is this critique should take nothing away from the victories earned by so many young athletes.  You can only beat the people who show up to compete against you, and the winners all rose to the challenge at hand.  They deserve their national championships.  I just feel the fans of track and field deserved more from those who didn't bother to attend.

By Bryan Green

We've seen a lot of records fall this season, and a number of other fast times.  David Rudisha just took down Wilson Kipketer's 800m world record, Ryan Gregson surpassed Simon Doyle's old 1500m Australian record, and Chris Solinsky and Bernard Lagat set new American Records in the 10000m and 5000m, respectively.  And we've seen Wheating and Manzano put up surprising personal bests in the 1500m and 800m, respectively.



Where records fall, debates rise up to take their place.  Is Rudisha's 2010 season better than Kipketer's 1997 campaign?  How does Gregson compare to Doyle?  Who had the better season, Solinsky or Lagat?  Who is the best middle distance runner in the US, Wheating or Manzano?  The great thing about all of these questions is that there's no easy answer.  Depending on the athlete, some arguments are stronger and others weaker.  And some are just plain dumb.

By my count, there are 12 arguments people make when debating runners' seasons and/or careers.  A good message board thread will usually have all of these come up at some point:

The Hardware Argument:  How many championships did they win?  The basis of this argument is that there is only one thing that matters, and that's winning.  In track, this argument is usually diluted to include the top three, but only when it can't be settled by gold medals.  

In perhaps the greatest debate settling race I can remember, Hicham El Guerrouj outkicks Kenenisa Bekele for gold medal #2 in Athens, earning major Hardware and Scoreboard points in the debate for "greatest distance runner of their era".

 
The Record Books Argument:  Where do they rank all-time?  This argument assumes the best put up the best marks.  Faster, farther and higher = superior.  For young runners, this argument is often modified to be relative to age.  This is the one argument that tends to hold some weight against the Hardware Argument.  Especially when somebody is still the reigning record holder.

The Scoreboard Argument:  How did they fare head-to-head with other athletes?  It don't mean a thing unless it came at the other guy's expense.  This is similar to the Hardware Argument, except that it pertains to all races, not just championships.  Unfortunately, this argument can only be used between two athletes in the same era.

The Dominance Argument:  How much better were they than their competition?  This is related to the Scoreboard Argument, only it measures the quality of the victories.  Winning big is superior to just winning.  The scale ranges from Haile G outkicking Tergat "barely dominant" to Usain Bolt celebrating his 100m victory and winning by two strides "completely dominant".  And yes, this argument can be applied to careers by looking at winning streaks.

The "You had to be there" Argument:  How can you appreciate something that can't be captured in statistics?  You see this more in other sports than in running, but it often comes up when you debate with old people about "who would have won head-to-head" between athletes from two different eras.  If your family was anything like mine, your dad probably used this to end the discussion when you tried to tell him how great your favorite player is.

The Historian Argument:  How good was the person given the historical context of the period in which he ran?  This argument can be spun in many ways.  It can be used to include Paavo Nurmi and Emil Zatopek in the same discussion with Haile G and Kenenisa Bekele.  It's also used to argue that champions from "fast" eras were better than those from "slow" eras.  Some people even extrapolate this to argue that if runners from previous eras were given our present-day knowledge and training methods they would (or would not) be just as fast.  The Historian Argument can get quite creative.

The Socio-economic Argument:  How many advantages or disadvantages did the person face?  This is an argument that gets abused way too much.  Many people want to give bonus points to athletes who ran themselves out of poverty or deduct credit for those who had "excessive" resources at their disposal (i.e. Alter-G treadmills).  Maybe...maybe...it can be used as a tie-breaker when two athletes seem relatively equal, but it's usually just someone confusing the issue in an effort to be PC.  

Even at 35, Lagat is still the best in the world when he's on.

The Longevity Argument:  How long was the person good?  There is something to be said for success over a long period of time.  It's amazing when someone can retain their abilities despite advancing in age.  With that said, this argument never usually comes out until a younger runner achieves something the older runner never did.

The Consistency Argument:  How predictable was the athlete's performance?  Some athletes range from very bad to brilliant, whereas others seem to always be very good.  People making this argument often approach the debate from a "who would I pick on my team if I were the team captain?" approach.  There's value to knowing what you're going to get.

The Peak Argument:  How good were they when they were at their best?  This is the obvious counter-argument to the Longevity Argument.  Who cares how long someone kept competing, tell me how good they were for their best 3 or 5 years.  This argument assumes that motivation to keep going isn't relevant to a discussion of greatness.

The "If Only..." Argument (aka The Prefontaine Argument):  What would have happened if only {whatever happened} hadn't actually happened?  This argument always gets used when discussing careers cut short due to death, illness, injury, or even early retirement, as in the case of Herb Elliott (surely he would have kept winning had he kept running, no?).  A lot of people like to give athletes bonus points for what they wanted them to achieve.

The Trendsetter Argument (aka The Fosbury Argument):  How much did the person do for their sport/event?  This argument gives a high amount of credit to anyone who changed the way the sport/event was played.  It could be explicit, like being the first to flop a certain way or implicit, like racing with a certain style or approach.  This argument is particularly common when debating coaches.

And a couple you see way too much from anonymous trolls on message boards:

Troll #1: The "What have you done for me lately?" Argument:  How fast did the person run their last race?  You hear this occasionally when a person gets injured or runs a bad race and some hoser declares that they suck.  I've honestly never heard this argument made in a real life conversation before, but it's the first weapon in a message board troll's arsenal.

Troll #2: The "Must Be Drugs" Argument:  How likely is it that the person's marks are the result of PEDs or other extenuating circumstances?  This is the cynic's anti-argument.  It allows the debator to avoid acknowledging the arguments of the other side, by casting suspicion on them entirely.  BALCO made this argument much more common (and more plausible, sadly), but it's been around for ages (Lasse Viren comes to mind).

Let the Debates Begin

It's possible I missed a few, and if so I hope you'll tell me in the comments.  And since I'm talking about debates, I thought I'd make some observations about some of the accomplishments I noted at the top.  Note: I don't feel qualified to debate Gregson vs Doyle, however, so I'm going to leave that for someone with a little more expertise on the subject, perhaps you, in the comments.

Rudisha vs Kipketer:  Two years ago, Kaki looked poised to dominate the 800m for the foreseeable future.  Today, he's the clear #2 behind David Rudisha.  That debate seems settled.  It also seems premature to compare Rudisha's career with Kipketer's, as the latter competed for many years and Rudisha is just getting started.  Will he match Kipketer's three World Championship golds or win the elusive Olympic gold that neither Coe nor Kipketer could attain?

What we can debate, however, is whether Rudisha's 2010 is superior to Kipketer's 1997. In 1997, Kipketer tied Seb Coe's world record in July, and then broke it twice in August.  All three times continue to rank 2nd, 3rd, and T-5th all-time.  Oh yeah, he also won both the Indoor and Outdoor World Championship titles.  That's some major Hardware.

Rudisha has had an amazing year, and it's not necessarily over.  Even if he doesn't compete again, though, he's broken the world record and run the 1st, 4th, and 10th fastest times ever.  Even if we take away Kipketer's Hardware on the basis that Rudisha didn't compete in any WC meets, the nod to "greatest 800m season ever" still has to go to Kipketer, albeit barely.  It's too bad Rudisha didn't run World Indoors this year...

Lagat is 6-0 lifetime against Solinsky, and 1-0 this year.  But Solinsky is getting closer and closer.

Solinsky vs Lagat:  These two athletes rewrote the US record books this season by breaking the 10k and 5k records, respectively.  But who had the better season?  

Let's start with Solinsky.  First he blew everyone away by smashing Meb's 10k AR.  He then proceeded to run three of the top five times ever by an American at 5k.  His worst race, a 13:08 at Pre, would have ranked him 6th all-time on the US list.  And yet.

And yet Bernard Lagat has had another Lagatian season.  He won the World Indoors 3000m and the USA 5000m title (a meet Solinsky skipped).  He then set the AR for 5000m both indoor (13:11.50) and outdoor (12:54.12) and ran 3:32 and 7:32 in various European races.  In their one head-to-head race, Lagat beat Solinsky (his AR 5000m performance).

Given the advantage in Hardware, Record Books and Scoreboard arguments, Lagat has had the better season.  But it isn't over, and I believe Solinsky has a chance to make up some ground.  That's because he's been as consistent as any athlete in the world up to this point.  His three European 5000m races have all been between 12:55.5 and 12:56.6.

To me, that's a clear sign that there's more left in the tank.  Someone can run a perfect race once, and maybe even twice.  But there's no way he's run three perfect races this season.  What this means is that 12:56 is more in the range of "very good" for Solinsky, and if he can pop a great race, that time could come down quite a bit.  

Would it be enough to tip the scales in his season's favor?  That's hard to say.  It probably depends on whether Bernard Lagat is still crossing the line while Solinsky is celebrating.

Wheating vs Manzano:  If you had told me earlier this summer that Wheating's 1500m time would be faster than Manzano's, but Manzano would equal Wheating's 800m time, I would have scoffed at you.  Yet that's where we find ourselves now.  Both Manzano and Wheating have run 1:44.56 for 800m, and Wheating's smokin' 3:30.90 is much faster than Manzano's 3:33.51 1500m or 3:50.64 mile.

Wheating is leading the head-to-head matchup 2-1, having run his two best races (Pre and Monaco) when Manzano ran his two biggest stinkers (and they were indeed stinkers).  But Manzano beat Wheating at his own event at the Stockholm 800m. 

And there's still time for Lopez Lomong to reinsert himself in the discussion.  He was the USA Outdoor champ over Manzano--in a race Wheating skipped--and ran 3:32.20 earlier in the season.  He was behind Wheating in both of his best races, however, and hasn't shown much range outside the mile.  I never would have thought it going into the spring but based on his Consistency, his Scoreboard, and his amazing times, Andrew Wheating is now the best middle distance runner in the US.

 

Can anyone live up to the standard Mr. Solinsky set this year?

By Bryan Green

"Happiness is reality minus expectations."
--Tom Magliozzi

"I am so bored by this result."
--Anonymous LetsRun message board poster, following Galen Rupp's 13:10.05 PR in Gateshead

Galen Rupp ran another PR on Saturday.  His 13:10.05 at Gateshead moved him up to 8th on the US all-time list, just .05 seconds away from Adam Goucher--the man once thought to be America's next great hope at 5000m--and yet the performance was met with little of the fanfare we might have expected just two years ago.

As a fan of US distance running, I can't help but feel I've been spoiled these past couple years.  I've seen my countrymen medal at the Olympic Games (Flanagan) and World Championships (Lagat, Rowbury, Johnson), break American Records (Flanagan, Barringer, Ritzenhein, Solinsky, Lagat), and rewrite many of the US all-time lists.

On the women's side, our middle distance runners have developed into arguably the best group in the world.  We now have six active 800m runners going sub-2:00 and four who are sub-4:00 (or super close, in Rowbury's case).  On the men's side, our long distance runners continue to rewrite the US all-time lists.  Five of the top 10 performers on both the 5000m and 10000m lists set their bests between 2008 and now.

And then there is the new crop of young runners, athletes like Phoebe Wright, Angela Bizzarri, Lisa Koll, Andrew Wheating, Robbie Andrews, German Fernandez, Chris Derrick, and (I never thought I'd write this) A.J. Acosta (!) who all appear to be on the cusp of joining the US elite.  Yes, I can't say it enough, it's a very fun time to be a fan of US distance running.

Some memorable expectation-defying performances German Fernandez #1 (2008): HS distance double 4:00/8:34 German Fernandez #2 (2009): 3:56.5 debut indoor mile for WJR Jenny Barringer (2009): sub-4 near victory in Pre Classic 1500 Maggie Vessey (2009): drops a world leading 1:57 after 12 races w/o breaking 2:00 Dathan Ritzenhein (2009): 12:56 5000m AR is 20 second PR Dan Huling (2009): 8:14 steeple PR to go from unknown to mostly unknown Meb Keflezighi (2009): wins NYC marathon against stacked field Alysia Johnson (2010): wins World Indoors after 2 years w/o breaking 2:00 Lisa Koll (2010): solo 31:18 to get CR at Stanford and become #6 US Chris Solinsky (2010): debut 10k is sub-27 AR, followed by 16 sec PR at 5k for #4 US all-time Phoebe Wright (2010): 1:58.22 huge PR at Pre Classic

But it's also a dangerous time.  That's because US runners haven't just run fast times; they have put up such a consistent run of unbelievable performances that fans are losing their sense of perspective when it comes to judging their performances.  We're like a power hitter on a hot streak...we think every swing is going to be a home run, and we're a little disappointed when it's just a single.

When I grew up, the advice I got playing baseball was not to try to hit home runs, but to just hit the ball hard.  Put the ball in play and good things happen.  Great hitters get lots of hits, not necessarily home runs.

This isn't so different from my former coach Bob Larsen's advice for becoming a great runner: Put yourself in position to have a good race every race (just hit the ball).  Great runners don't run great and then run terribly, they consistently run well (hit the ball hard every time).  Once in a while they may really hit one and get a PR (home runs aren't the goal, they just happen).

Maybe today's runners didn't play baseball.  Or maybe they did.  I don't think many of them are swinging for the fences.  I think they are simply trying to hit the ball hard, and for whatever reason that's led to a bunch of grand slams of late.  So many that it's almost begun to seem normal.  

But it's not normal.  It's fantastic, it's awesome, and it's a bit mind-blowing but it's so not normal.

We've seen so many out-of-nowhere great performances that when Galen Rupp runs 13:10 in his European opener, it doesn't even get bold font on the LetsRun homepage.  Two years ago it would have been a lead item and the forum might have gone down.  But today it gets one of two responses: a shrug or a hyper-critical analysis of why it wasn't good enough!  What a difference two years makes! 

And I'm not being critical of LetsRun here.  I wouldn't have done anything different.  In fact, despite the fact the anonymous poster I quoted above was probably trolling, the truth is that I felt pretty much the same.  I nodded my head and thought, "Not bad."  Not bad?!  In reality, I should have been ecstatic for him, but it's hard when your expectations are set way too high. 

Galen Rupp is right on track.  He's hitting the ball hard every time out there.  In baseball it can be hard to get excited about a routine single, but when a batter starts stringing a bunch of them together, good things happen. Maybe one of these hits will be a home run.  Maybe not.  But ultimately that won't matter.

If he can continue to smack out performances like these, we'll look up and wonder why we weren't more excited about Galen Rupp's breaking all the American Records.  And the only answer will be that we were too busy watching other people hit home runs, and he just didn't do it with a big enough swing.

Previous Page  -  Intro  -  26-50  -  11-25  -  Top 10

We've finally made it to the Top 10.  Four people from last year's top 10 didn't make the cut, so let's see who took their places.  Athlete name, last year's rank (and PRs in parentheses).

Bernard Lagat is still the best in the US...but for how much longer?

10.  Bernard Lagat, 6 (800m 1:46.00 - 1500m 3:26.34 - Mile 3:47.28 - 3000m 7:32.43AR - 5000m 12:59.22)

Yes, I lowered his ranking even though he just won a World Indoor title.  I'm afraid of his age.  It doesn't take much to derail a 36 year old, even one as great as Lagat.  His win at World Indoors shows he's still got it compared to most of the world, but with his announced focus on the 5000m, I'm not sure he's the favorite to win any more major outdoor titles.  Not if Bekele's running in them, anyway.

Despite Ritz and Teg having faster PR's over 5000m, Lagat is the clear favorite to win any head-to-head race because of his kick.  You know what would be ironic?  What if Lagat goes out and runs something like 12:53, and Teg goes out the next week and runs 12:55?  That would be hilarious.  Anyway, for the next year or two Lagat is still top dog in the US, but not for much longer than that.

9.  Dathan Ritzenhein, 17 (3000m 7:39.03 - Two Miles 8:11.74 - 5000m 12:56.27AR - 10000m 27:22.28 - Half 60:00 - Marathon 2:10:00)
8.  Galen Rupp, 2 (800m 1:49.87 - 1500m 3:39.14 - Mile 3:56.22 - 3000m 7:44.69 - 5000m 13:14.21 - 10000m 27:33.48)

These two training partners are at different stages in their careers, but their goals are pretty similar (as are their chances of achieving them).  Both have their sights set on Meb's 10000m AR, and it almost looks like the favorite to get it will be the first guy to go for it. 

Each had a phenomenal 2009, with Ritz setting the 5000m AR, finishing 6th in the Berlin 10000m (in a PR), and getting a bronze at the World Half Marathon Champs.  All he has to prove is that he can master the full marathon distance.  If he does, he'll have a resume that's pretty hard to beat.

Rupp absolutely destroyed the collegiate ranks last year, won the USA 10000m title easily (over Ritz), then finished 8th in Berlin.  He's started off the year with a PR at 5000m and a 5th place finish in the 3000m at the World Indoor Champs.  I would be shocked if neither of these two broke Meb's 10000m record this year, and I give the slight nod to Rupp, who I think might have been able to do it last year had he gotten in the right race in June.

2009 Top Ten (2010 rank)

10. Anna Pierce (5) 9. Alan Webb (16) 8. Nick Symmonds (13)  7. Shannon Rowbury (6) 6. Bernard Lagat (10) 5. Ryan Hall (11) 4. Kara Goucher (12) 3. Shalane Flanagan (3) 2. Galen Rupp (8) 1. Jenny Barringer (1) Watch Ryan Hall burn me by winning Boston now that I've bumped him from the top 10.  Trust me, though, I'll be ecstatic if he does. The next most likely person to burn me on this ranking? Nick Symmonds, because anyone can win a major 800m.  The event is just that fluky.  With that said, there are no global championships this year and by 2011, I think we may be talking just as much about Wheating winning a major 800m medal as Symmonds.

7.  German Fernandez, 11 (1500m 3:39.00 - Mile 3:55.02 - 3000m 7:47.97 - 5000m 13:25.46)

If there's one runner who can equal Alan Webb for an awe inspiring all-or-nothing quality to his performances, it's German Fernandez.  When he's on, he's a revelation.  He doesn't just win, but he dictates the race and wins on his own terms.  Last year he ran a solo 3:55.02 to set an NCAA record, easily won USA JR XC over Derrick, won the NCAA Outdoor 1500m despite leading the entire race, and then set the AJR for 5000m in finishing 5th at the USA Outdoor meet.  He just makes it all look so easy.

Except when he doesn't.  He's had his share of troubles, injuries and an iron deficiency, that have kept him from training consistently and running up to his potential.  He DNF'd NCAA XC his freshman year, missed time with a stress reaction in track, struggled through XC last year and then turned his ankle at the Big 12 Champs in indoor track.  His future seems so bright yet so unpredictable.

There are a couple things that have to be said, however.  We haven't seen a 1500m/5000m talent like him in a long time, maybe ever.  But he's still not a favorite to win either race at the NCAA level, despite his pulling off the 1500m victory last year.  Will he win more NCAA titles?  Surely.  But he's less of a lock than the other collegiates ahead of him.

6.  Shannon Rowbury, 7 (800m 2:00.94 - 1500m 4:00.33 - Mile 4:20.34 - 3000m 8:47.18 - 5000m 15:12.95)
5.  Anna Pierce, 10 (800m 1:58.80 - 1500m 3:59.38 - 3000m 8:58.07 - Steeple 9:22.76 - 5000m 15:53.36)

For various reasons I'm always a little bearish about Shannon Rowbury.  Maybe I'm just too focused on PRs and not enough on racing instincts, because I haven't really come to terms with the fact that she is the best 1500m runner in the US.  I had her ranked all over the place as I started putting this list together, and finally settled on 6th because of her bronze in Berlin last year.

One spot ahead of her is Pierce.  Not only did she finish 4th at World Indoors this year, but she didn't lose a single race over 800m last year, she had the 10th fastest time in the world for 800m and the 4th fastest over 1500m, and she still is the nation's #2 steepler (should she ever go back to it).  There aren't enough good things to say about her.

Once again, Wheating was .01 away from an NCAA title.

4.  Andrew Wheating, 12 (800m 1:45.03 - 1500m 3:38.60 - Mile 3:58.16)

I think Andrew Wheating's NCAA Indoor meet was instructive as to where he stands in the US today.  He anchored his DMR team to a victory, outkicking a 1:48/3:35 guy and a host of other top milers.  He then lost the 800m by .01 seconds because he A) always races from the back and has only one strategy and B) didn't go all out because he thought he had it won.  

What we learned is that Wheating is the best overall middle-distance runner in the NCAA, but he's still inexperienced.  He's got the killer instinct, but only when he's running from behind.  This will change though.  He learned a great lesson in Fayetteville.  You can bet Robby Andrews won't be sneaking up on him again, and you can bet that 1:44 is only a few outdoor races away.  He's still the major favorite to win NCAA Outdoors, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 1:44/3:35 either.  I think we're about to see the "Summer of Wheating".  Prepare to be amazed.

3.  Shalane Flanagan, 3 (1500m 4:05.86 - 3000m 8:33.35iAR - 5000m 14:44.80AR - 10000m 30:22.22 - Half 69:41)

Last year Flanagan struggled.  Expectations were high following her 10000m bronze in Beijing, but she finished a disappointing 2nd at the USA Outdoors and 14th in Berlin.  There was speculation as to whether it was a mistake to change coaches, and she kind of disappeared after the World Champs, ending her season early.

She came back strong this winter by running a 69:41 debut half marathon--6th all-time by an American--in what appeared to be a tempo effort.  She then destroyed a very strong field at USA XC and finished 12th at World XC.  She looks poised for a great summer, but what's most interesting is her planned marathon debut.  She's got the pedigree and track times to warrant very high expectations and if she can follow in Kastor's footsteps, she may be the next great American marathoner.

2.  Lisa Koll, 16 (Mile 4:41.37 - 3000m 8:56.09 - 5000m 15:29.65 - 10000m 31:18.07)

At the NCAA Indoor meet, Lisa Koll was outkicked in the last lap of the 3000m by Angela Bizzarri.  So why is she 14 spots higher?  Because she just rewrote the record books in the NCAA 10000m.

Two years ago, Koll ran 32:11.  She did that with a 5k PR in the 15:50s.  Last Friday she ran 31:18.07, breaking Kipyego's record by 7 seconds and putting her to number 6 on the all-time US performers list.  The time is only half the story though.  I was at this race and watched it with TnF News's Sieg Lindstrom.  We marveled at how Koll went out in 15:52--leading every lap from the gun-- and then rolled off a string of 74.2's that were simply mechanical.  Her 15:26 last 5k was faster than her PB and faster than any current collegiate runner has ever run in an open 5000 meters.  And she never looked like she was overextended.

She's also arriving at the perfect time to be a 10k runner.  Flanagan, Goucher and Begley are all equal to or stronger than her, but they are all starting to pursue careers on the roads.  For the next few years, the door is open to win a number of US titles in the 5 and 10.

As for this year, there's nobody in the NCAA who can run with her in the 10000m.  And if she doubles at NCAA Outdoors?  Bizzarri outkicked her to deny her the 5k/3k double indoors, but the 10/5 is more in her wheelhouse.  Honestly, I'm not sure I'd bet on Bizzarri, even if she's running fresh.

With Pierce no longer breathing down her back, Barringer owns the steeple.

1.  Jenny Barringer, 1 (800m 2:02.56 - 1500m 3:59.90 - 3000m 8:42.03 - Steeple 9:12.50 - 5000m 15:01.70)

Here's the thing.  Even without collegiate eligibility, you have to put Barringer in the top spot.  She's the AR holder for the steeplechase, and Pierce, her only real competition, is busy kicking arse in the middle distances.  She's ranked 8th all-time in the world for the steeple, and her PR's indicate that she's capable of running close to the world record in the event.  If she decides to enter other events, she's one of the top milers or 5000m runners in the country as well.

Right now she's the only US runner with a legit shot at a world record.  She's as good a bet as anyone to win a world title or medal.  She's got practically no competition in the steeple, and she's got the range to possibly win titles both up and down from her event.  She's young.  She's a workhorse.  She's the complete package.  She's (still) the most valuable runner in the US today.

Previous Page  -  Intro  -  26-50  -  11-25  -  Top 10

 

1500m - El Guerrouj-Memorial Van Damme

 

1500m - Golden League Paris